基于不确定控制理论的最优策略研究

本文在不确定理论的框架下,研究一类带背景状态变量的最优控制模型.在乐观值准则下,利用不确定动态规划的方法,证明了不确定最优性原则,得到最优性方程.作为应用,求解一个固定缴费(DC)型养老金的最优投资策略问题,在乐观值准则下,以工资变量为背景状态变量,建立养老金模型.通过求解不确定最优性方程得到最优投资策略和最优支付率.     

Optimal Harvesting in an Age-Structured Predator–Prey Model

We investigate optimal harvesting control in a predator–prey model in which the prey population is represented by a first-order partial differential equation with age-structure and the predator population is represented by an ordinary differential equation in time. The controls are the proportions of the populations to be harvested, and the objective functional represents the profit from harvesting. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal control pair are established.     

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT IN THE PROTECTION OF A VULNERABLE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCE

It is assumed that the probability of destruction of a biological asset by natural hazards can be reduced through investment in protection. Specifically a model, in which the hazard rate depends on both the age of the asset and the accumulated invested protection capital, is assumed. The protection capital depreciates through time and its effectiveness in reducing the hazard rate is subject to diminishing returns. It is shown how the investment schedule to maximize the expected net present value of the asset can be determined using the methods of deterministic optimal control, with the survival probability regarded as a state variable. The optimal investment pattern involves “bang-bang-singular” control. A numerical scheme for determining jointly the optimal investment policy and the optimal harvest (or replacement) age is outlined and a numerical example involving forest fire protection is given.     

首次穿过边界概率及其在金融中的应用

本文把数学和管理科学有机结合,为数学应用提出问题,得出新结果,推广了J.Michel Harrison(1985)[1]第43页的命题27,并给出了在金融中的应用.     

Optimal Control of Non-well-posed Heat Equations

This work is concerned with Pontryagin＇s maximum principle of optimal control problems governed by some non-well-posed semilinear heat equations. A type of approach to the non-well-posed optimal control problem is given.     

Stochastic analysis in life office management: applications to large annuity portfolios

The paper deals with the riskiness analysis for a large portfolio of life annuities. By means of the limiting distribution of the present value of the portfolio, in the first part of the paper a model for evaluating the investment and the projection risks is presented. In the second part, with regard to the investment risk's effects, the insolvency risk is measured considering the cumulative probability distribution function of the discounted average cost per policy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Differentiability of the Value Function of Nonclassical Optimal Growth Models

We consider an optimal growth (multi-sector) model with nonconvex technology. Using the Clarke results on generalized gradients, we prove that the value function has left and right derivatives with respect to the initial capital stock, without requiring supermodularity assumptions.     

Efficient Sequential Quadratic Programming Implementations for Equality-Constrained Discrete-Time Optimal Control

Efficient sequential quadratic programming (SQP) implementations are presented for equality-constrained, discrete-time, optimal control problems. The algorithm developed calculates the search direction for the equality-based variant of SQP and is applicable to problems with either fixed or free final time. Problem solutions are obtained by solving iteratively a series of constrained quadratic programs. The number of mathematical operations required for each iteration is proportional to the number of discrete times N. This is contrasted by conventional methods in which this number is proportional to N ³. The algorithm results in quadratic convergence of the iterates under the same conditions as those for SQP and simplifies to an existing dynamic programming approach when there are no constraints and the final time is fixed. A simple test problem and two application problems are presented. The application examples include a satellite dynamics problem and a set of brachistochrone problems involving viscous friction.     

证券投资组合的风险与收益

本文利用概率统计原理对证券的投资组合能减轻所遇的风险作了讨论 ,并介绍了如何选择投资组合可使所遇风险达到最小     

一类经典”秘书问题”的推广

”秘书问题”在最优停时理论的发展中曾起过重要作用 ,实际中的一类问题与”秘书问题”有类似之处 ,但比”秘书问题”更复杂 .本文将经典”秘书问题”进行推广 ,建立了一类比经典”秘书问题”更有实际意义的模型 ,并给出了该类模型的解 .