基于不确定控制理论的最优策略研究

本文在不确定理论的框架下,研究一类带背景状态变量的最优控制模型.在乐观值准则下,利用不确定动态规划的方法,证明了不确定最优性原则,得到最优性方程.作为应用,求解一个固定缴费(DC)型养老金的最优投资策略问题,在乐观值准则下,以工资变量为背景状态变量,建立养老金模型.通过求解不确定最优性方程得到最优投资策略和最优支付率.     

A probabilistic approach to spectral analysis of growth-fragmentation equations

The growth-fragmentation equation describes a system of growing and dividing particles, and arises in models of cell division, protein polymerisation and even telecommunications protocols. Several important questions about the equation concern the asymptotic behaviour of solutions at large times: at what rate do they converge to zero or infinity, and what does the asymptotic profile of the solutions look like? Does the rescaled solution converge to its asymptotic profile at an exponential speed? These questions have traditionally been studied using analytic techniques such as entropy methods or splitting of operators. In this work, we present a probabilistic approach: we use a Feynman–Kac formula to relate the solution of the growth-fragmentation equation to the semigroup of a Markov process, and characterise the rate of decay or growth in terms of this process. We then identify the Malthus exponent and the asymptotic profile in terms of a related Markov process, and give a spectral interpretation in terms of the growth-fragmentation operator and its dual.     

A Structural Entropy Measurement Principle of Propositional Formulas in Conjunctive Normal Form

The satisfiability (SAT) problem is a core problem in computer science. Existing studies have shown that most industrial SAT instances can be effectively solved by modern SAT solvers while random SAT instances cannot. It is believed that the structural characteristics of different SAT formula classes are the reasons behind this difference. In this paper, we study the structural properties of propositional formulas in conjunctive normal form (CNF) by the principle of structural entropy of formulas. First, we used structural entropy to measure the complex structure of a formula and found that the difficulty solving the formula is related to the structural entropy of the formula. The smaller the compressing information of a formula, the more difficult it is to solve the formula. Secondly, we proposed a λ-approximation strategy to approximate the structural entropy of large formulas. The experimental results showed that the proposed strategy can effectively approximate the structural entropy of the original formula and that the approximation ratio is more than 92%. Finally, we analyzed the structural properties of a formula in the solution process and found that a local search solver tends to select variables in different communities to perform the next round of searches during a search and that the structural entropy of a variable affects the probability of the variable being flipped. By using these conclusions, we also proposed an initial candidate solution generation strategy for a local search for SAT, and the experimental results showed that this strategy effectively improves the performance of the solvers CCAsat and Sparrow2011 when incorporated into these two solvers.     

基于时变Copula模型的 基金收益率相依关系的应用研究

基于时变Copula模型,获得预测方差,确定单个基金收益率序列的边缘分布.利用常见的静态Copula和时变Copula模型对基金收益率序列间两两相依关系进行建模并进行对比分析.应用研究表明,基于MCMC方法的时变Copula模型能更有效地度量基金收益率序列的风险.     

一阶最优性条件研究

本对由Botsko的关于多变量函数取极值的一阶导数检验条件定理^[1]进行了分析研究，给出了更实用而简捷的差别条件。最后，举出若干例子予以说明。     

ESTIMATING EXTREME-VALUE INDEX FROM RECORDS

1.IntroductionLet{X.,n21}beasequenceoflidry'swithanondegeneratedistributionfunctionF(x).Supposethereexistsomeconstantsan>0,b.6RandsomeacERsuchthatwhereG.standsforoneoftheextremevaluedistributions:Heretheindex7ERisarealparameter(interpret(1 box)--'/ryase--"for7~0).Theestimationoftheextreme-valueindex7isveryimportantbothintheextremevaluetheoryandinpractice.Manystatistics,suchasHillestimator(forcaseac>0),PickandsestimatorandDekkers-EinmahLdeHaan'smomentestimatorwhicharebasedonafinitesample,…     

Efficient Collocation Schemes for Singular Boundary Value Problems

We discuss an error estimation procedure for the global error of collocation schemes applied to solve singular boundary value problems with a singularity of the first kind. This a posteriori estimate of the global error was proposed by Stetter in 1978 and is based on the idea of Defect Correction, originally due to Zadunaisky. Here, we present a new, carefully designed modification of this error estimate which not only results in less computational work but also appears to perform satisfactorily for singular problems. We give a full analytical justification for the asymptotical correctness of the error estimate when it is applied to a general nonlinear regular problem. For the singular case, we are presently only able to provide computational evidence for the full convergence order, the related analysis is still work in progress. This global estimate is the basis for a grid selection routine in which the grid is modified with the aim to equidistribute the global error. This procedure yields meshes suitable for an efficient numerical solution. Most importantly, we observe that the grid is refined in a way reflecting only the behavior of the solution and remains unaffected by the unsmooth direction field close to the singular point.