二重非齐次马氏链的遍历性及其应用

给出二重非齐次马氏链的强遍历性,绝对平均强遍历性,Cesaro平均收敛的概念．利用二维马氏链的遍历性和C-K方程,建立了二维马氏链与二重非齐次马氏链遍历性的关系．并讨论了齐次二重马氏链绝对平均强遍历与强遍历的等价性．最后给出Cesaro平均收敛在马氏决策过程和信息论中应用．     

Simulated annealing with noisy or imprecise energy measurements

The annealing algorithm (Ref. 1) is modified to allow for noisy or imprecise measurements of the energy cost function. This is important when the energy cannot be measured exactly or when it is computationally expensive to do so. Under suitable conditions on the noise/imprecision, it is shown that the modified algorithm exhibits the same convergence in probability to the globally minimum energy states as the annealing algorithm (Ref. 2). Since the annealing algorithm will typically enter and exit the minimum energy states infinitely often with probability one, the minimum energy state visited by the annealing algorithm is usually tracked. The effect of using noisy or imprecise energy measurements on tracking the minimum energy state visited by the modified algorithms is examined.The research reported here has been supported under Contracts AFOSR-85-0227, DAAG-29-84-K-0005, and DAAL-03-86-K-0171 and a Purdue Research Initiation Grant.     

关于随机环境中的马尔可夫过程的简介——纪念李国平院士吴新谋教授诞辰100周年

该文系统地介绍随机环境中的马尔可夫过程. 共4章, 第一章介绍依时的随机环境中的马尔可夫链(MCTRE), 包括MCTRE的存在性及等价描述; 状态分类; 遍历理论及不变测度; p-θ 链的中心极限定理和不变原理. 第二章介绍依时的随机环境中的马尔可夫过程(MPTRE), 包括MPTRE的基本概念; 随机环境中的q -过程存在唯一性; 时齐的q -过程;MPTRE的构造及等价性定理.第三章介绍依时的随机环境中的分枝链(MBCRE), 包括有限维的和无穷维的MBCRE的模型和基本概念; 它们的灭绝概念;两极分化; 增殖率等.第四章介绍依时依空的随机环境中的马尔可夫链(MCSTRE), 包括MCSTRE的基本概念、构造; 依时依空的随机环境中的随机徘徊(RWSTRE)的中心极限定理、不变原理.     

Augmented truncation approximations of discrete-time Markov chains

Let P be a positive recurrent infinite transition matrix with invariant distribution π and be a truncated and arbitrarily augmented stochastic matrix with invariant distribution _(n)π. We investigate the convergence ‖_(n)π−π‖→0, as n→∞, and derive a widely applicable sufficient criterion. Moreover, computable bounds on the error ‖_(n)π−π‖ are obtained for polynomially and geometrically ergodic chains. The bounds become rather explicit when the chains are stochastically monotone.     

Dividends in finite time horizon

In this paper, we consider the classical risk model modified in two different ways by the inclusion of a dividend barrier. For Model I, we present numerical algorithms, which can be used to approximate or bound the expected discounted value of dividends up to a finite time horizon, t, or ruin if this occurs earlier. We extend this by requiring the shareholders to provide the initial capital and to pay the deficit at ruin each time it occurs so that the process then continues after ruin up to time t. For Model I, we assume the full premium income is paid as dividends whenever the surplus exceeds a set level. In our Model II, we assume dividends are paid at a rate less than the rate of premium income. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Managing raw material in supply chains

In this paper, we explore how firms can manage their raw material sourcing better by developing appropriate sourcing relationships with their raw material suppliers. We detail three empirical case studies of firms explaining their different raw material sourcing strategies: (a) firms can adopt a hands-off approach to raw material management, (b) firms can supply raw material directly to their suppliers, and this may be beneficial for some agents in the supply chain, and (c) firms can bring their component suppliers together, and the resulting cooperation between suppliers can be beneficial for supply chain. We then analytically model the three raw material scenarios encountered in our empirical work, examine the resulting profits along the supply chain, and extend the results to a competitive buyer scenario. Overall, our results show that active management of raw material sourcing can add value to supply chains.     

Nonhomogeneous markov chains with desired properties - the nearest markovian model

A new class of operators performing an optimization (optimization operators or, simply, optimators) which generate transition matrices with required properties such as ergodicity, recurrence etc., is considered and their fundamental features are described. Some criteria for comparing such operators by taking into account their strenght are given and sufficient conditions for both weak and strong ergodicity are derived. The nearest Markovian model with respect to a given set of observed probability vectors is then defined as a sequence of transition matrices satisfying certain constraints that express our prior knowledge about the system. Finally, sufficient conditions for the existence of such a model are given and the related algorithm is illustrated by an example.     

Fuzzy Markov Chains and Decision-Making

Decision-making in an environment of uncertainty and imprecision for real-world problems is a complex task. In this paper it is introduced general finite state fuzzy Markov chains that have a finite convergence to a stationary (may be periodic) solution. The Cesaro average and the -potential for fuzzy Markov chains are defined, then it is shown that the relationship between them corresponds to the Blackwell formula in the classical theory of Markov decision processes. Furthermore, it is pointed out that recurrency does not necessarily imply ergodicity. However, if a fuzzy Markov chain is ergodic, then the rows of its ergodic projection equal the greatest eigen fuzzy set of the transition matrix. Then, the fuzzy Markov chain is shown to be a robust system with respect to small perturbations of the transition matrix, which is not the case for the classical probabilistic Markov chains. Fuzzy Markov decision processes are finally introduced and discussed.     

On mixtures of distributions of Markov chains

Let X be a chain with discrete state space I, and V be the matrix of entries V_i,n, where V_i,n denotes the position of the process immediately after the nth visit to i. We prove that the law of X is a mixture of laws of Markov chains if and only if the distribution of V is invariant under finite permutations within rows (i.e., the V_i,n's are partially exchangeable in the sense of de Finetti). We also prove that an analogous statement holds true for mixtures of laws of Markov chains with a general state space and atomic kernels. Going back to the discrete case, we analyze the relationships between partial exchangeability of V and Markov exchangeability in the sense of Diaconis and Freedman. The main statement is that the former is stronger than the latter, but the two are equivalent under the assumption of recurrence. Combination of this equivalence with the aforesaid representation theorem gives the Diaconis and Freedman basic result for mixtures of Markov chains.     

Scale Invariance Properties in the Simulated Annealing Algorithm

The Boltzmann distribution used in the steady-state analysis of the simulated annealing algorithm gives rise to several scale invariant properties. Scale invariance is first presented in the context of parallel independent processors and then extended to an abstract form based on lumping states together to form new aggregate states. These lumped or aggregate states possess all of the mathematical characteristics, forms and relationships of states (solutions) in the original problem in both first and second moments. These scale invariance properties therefore permit new ways of relating objective function values, conditional expectation values, stationary probabilities, rates of change of stationary probabilities and conditional variances. Such properties therefore provide potential applications in analysis, statistical inference and optimization. Directions for future research that take advantage of scale invariance are also discussed.