A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

On isomorphic factorizations of circulant graphs

We investigate the conjecture that every circulant graph X admits a k‐isofactorization for every k dividing |E(X)|. We obtain partial results with an emphasis on small values of k. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Combin Designs 14: 406–414, 2006     

Analysis of two-sample truncated data using generalized logistic models

Parallel to Cox's [JRSS B34 (1972) 187-230] proportional hazards model, generalized logistic models have been discussed by Anderson [Bull. Int. Statist. Inst. 48 (1979) 35-53] and others. The essential assumption is that the two densities ratio has a known parametric form. A nice property of this model is that it naturally relates to the logistic regression model for categorical data. In astronomic, demographic, epidemiological, and other studies the variable of interest is often truncated by an associated variable. This paper studies generalized logistic models for the two-sample truncated data problem, where the two lifetime densities ratio is assumed to have the form exp{α+φ(x;β)}. Here φ is a known function of x and β, and the baseline density is unspecified. We develop a semiparametric maximum likelihood method for the case where the two samples have a common truncation distribution. It is shown that inferences for β do not depend the nonparametric components. We also derive an iterative algorithm to maximize the semiparametric likelihood for the general case where different truncation distributions are allowed. We further discuss how to check goodness of fit of the generalized logistic model. The developed methods are illustrated and evaluated using both simulated and real data.     

A triangular map with homoclinic orbits and no infinite ω-limit set containing periodic points

Recently, Forti, Paganoni and Smítal constructed an example of a triangular map of the unite square, F(x,y)=(f(x),g(x,y)), possessing periodic orbits of all periods and such that no infinite ω-limit set of F contains a periodic point. In this note we show that the above quoted map F has a homoclinic orbit. As a consequence, we answer in the negative the problem presented by A.N. Sharkovsky in the eighties whether, for a triangular map of the square, existence of a homoclinic orbit implies the existence of an infinite ω-limit set containing a periodic point. It is well known that, for a continuous map of the interval, the answer is positive.     

Projective geometry and special relativity

Some concepts of real and complex projective geometry are applied to the fundamental physical notions that relate to Minkowski space and the Lorentz group. In particular, it is shown that the transition from an infinite speed of propagation for light waves to a finite one entails the replacement of a hyperplane at infinity with a light cone and the replacement of an affine hyperplane – or rest space – with a proper time hyperboloid. The transition from the metric theory of electromagnetism to the pre‐metric theory is discussed in the context of complex projective geometry, and ultimately, it is proposed that the geometrical issues are more general than electromagnetism, namely, they pertain to the transition from point mechanics to wave mechanics.     

Numerical solution of the three‐dimensional parabolic equation with an integral condition

Developement of numerical methods for obtaining approximate solutions to the three dimensional diffusion equation with an integral condition will be carried out. The numerical techniques discussed are based on the fully explicit (1,7) finite difference technique and the fully implicit (7,1) finite difference method and the (7,7) Crank‐Nicolson type finite difference formula. The new developed methods are tested on a problem. Truncation error analysis and numerical examples are used to illustrate the accuracy of the new algorithms. The results of numerical testing show that the numerical methods based on the finite difference techniques discussed in the present article produce good results. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq 18: 193–202, 2002; DOI 10.1002/num.1040     

A covering construction for packing disjoint copies of the Hoffman‐Singleton graph into K50

In this note we show how coverings induced by voltage assignments can be used to produce packings of disjoint copies of the Hoffman‐Singleton graph into K₅₀. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Combin Designs 11: 408–412, 2003; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/jcd.10049     

Extremes of deterministic sub‐sampled moving averages with heavy‐tailed innovations

Let {X_k}_k?1 be a strictly stationary time series. For a strictly increasing sampling function g:?→? define Y_k=X_g(k) as the deterministic sub‐sampled time series. In this paper, the extreme value theory of {Y_k} is studied when X_k has representation as a moving average driven by heavy‐tailed innovations. Under mild conditions, convergence results for a sequence of point processes based on {Y_k} are proved and extremal properties of the deterministic sub‐sampled time series are derived. In particular, we obtain the limiting distribution of the maximum and the corresponding extremal index. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interference of probabilities and number field structure of quantum models

We study the probabilistic consequences of the choice of the basic number field in the quantum formalism. We demonstrate that by choosing a number field for a linear space representation of quantum model it is possible to describe various interference phenomena. We analyse interference of probabilistic alternatives induced by real, complex, hyperbolic (Clifford) and p‐adic representations.