Efficiency of Classical and Quantum Games Equilibria

Nash equilibria and correlated equilibria of classical and quantum games are investigated in the context of their Pareto efficiency. The examples of the prisoner’s dilemma, battle of the sexes and the game of chicken are studied. Correlated equilibria usually improve Nash equilibria of games but require a trusted correlation device susceptible to manipulation. The quantum extension of these games in the Eisert–Wilkens–Lewenstein formalism and the Frąckiewicz–Pykacz parameterization is analyzed. It is shown that the Nash equilibria of these games in quantum mixed Pauli strategies are closer to Pareto optimal results than their classical counter-parts. The relationship of mixed Pauli strategies equilibria and correlated equilibria is also studied.     

Artificial Neural Networks Performance in WIG20 Index Options Pricing

In this paper, the performance of artificial neural networks in option pricing was analyzed and compared with the results obtained from the Black–Scholes–Merton model, based on the historical volatility. The results were compared based on various error metrics calculated separately between three moneyness ratios. The market data-driven approach was taken to train and test the neural network on the real-world options data from 2009 to 2019, quoted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The artificial neural network did not provide more accurate option prices, even though its hyperparameters were properly tuned. The Black–Scholes–Merton model turned out to be more precise and robust to various market conditions. In addition, the bias of the forecasts obtained from the neural network differed significantly between moneyness states. This study provides an initial insight into the application of deep learning methods to pricing options in emerging markets with low liquidity and high volatility.     

The Cross-Sectional Intrinsic Entropy—A Comprehensive Stock Market Volatility Estimator

To take into account the temporal dimension of uncertainty in stock markets, this paper introduces a cross-sectional estimation of stock market volatility based on the intrinsic entropy model. The proposed cross-sectional intrinsic entropy (CSIE) is defined and computed as a daily volatility estimate for the entire market, grounded on the daily traded prices—open, high, low, and close prices (OHLC)—along with the daily traded volume for all symbols listed on The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ). We perform a comparative analysis between the time series obtained from the CSIE and the historical volatility as provided by the estimators: close-to-close, Parkinson, Garman–Klass, Rogers–Satchell, Yang–Zhang, and intrinsic entropy (IE), defined and computed from historical OHLC daily prices of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index (S&P500), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the NASDAQ Composite index, respectively, for various time intervals. Our study uses an approximate 6000-day reference point, starting 1 January 2001, until 23 January 2022, for both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We found that the CSIE market volatility estimator is consistently at least 10 times more sensitive to market changes, compared to the volatility estimate captured through the market indices. Furthermore, beta values confirm a consistently lower volatility risk for market indices overall, between 50% and 90% lower, compared to the volatility risk of the entire market in various time intervals and rolling windows.     

Efficient Markets and Contingent Claims Valuation: An Information Theoretic Approach

This research article shows how the pricing of derivative securities can be seen from the context of stochastic optimal control theory and information theory. The financial market is seen as an information processing system, which optimizes an information functional. An optimization problem is constructed, for which the linearized Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation is the Black–Scholes pricing equation for financial derivatives. The model suggests that one can define a reasonable Hamiltonian for the financial market, which results in an optimal transport equation for the market drift. It is shown that in such a framework, which supports Black–Scholes pricing, the market drift obeys a backwards Burgers equation and that the market reaches a thermodynamical equilibrium, which minimizes the free energy and maximizes entropy.     

On Using the BMCSL Equation of State to Renormalize the Onsager Theory Approach to Modeling Hard Prolate Spheroidal Liquid Crystal Mixtures

Modifications to the traditional Onsager theory for modeling isotropic–nematic phase transitions in hard prolate spheroidal systems are presented. Pure component systems are used to identify the need to update the Lee–Parsons resummation term. The Lee–Parsons resummation term uses the Carnahan–Starling equation of state to approximate higher-order virial coefficients beyond the second virial coefficient employed in Onsager’s original theoretical approach. As more exact ways of calculating the excluded volume of two hard prolate spheroids of a given orientation are used, the division of the excluded volume by eight, which is an empirical correction used in the original Lee–Parsons resummation term, must be replaced by six to yield a better match between the theoretical and simulation results. These modifications are also extended to binary mixtures of hard prolate spheroids using the Boublík–Mansoori–Carnahan–Starling–Leland (BMCSL) equation of state.     

High-dimensional Kuramoto model limited on smooth curved surfaces

In this Letter, a high-dimensional Kuramoto model limited on smooth curved surfaces is established. Some synchronization phenomena of this new model are displayed by simulations. A necessary and sufficient condition of equilibria is obtained and the linearized system around an equilibrium is derived. As the considered smooth curved surface is an ellipsoid, some dynamical properties including limit behavior and instability are obtained. Based on those results, almost global synchronization is achieved for the high-dimensional Kuramoto model limited on ellipsoids with complete or tree graphs. Moreover, numerical simulations are given to validate the obtained theoretical results.     

The Random Plots Graph Generation Model for Studying Systems with Unknown Connection Structures

We consider the problem of modeling complex systems where little or nothing is known about the structure of the connections between the elements. In particular, when such systems are to be modeled by graphs, it is unclear what vertex degree distributions these graphs should have. We propose that, instead of attempting to guess the appropriate degree distribution for a poorly understood system, one should model the system via a set of sample graphs whose degree distributions cover a representative range of possibilities and account for a variety of possible connection structures. To construct such a representative set of graphs, we propose a new random graph generator, Random Plots, in which we (1) generate a diversified set of vertex degree distributions and (2) target a graph generator at each of the constructed distributions, one-by-one, to obtain the ensemble of graphs. To assess the diversity of the resulting ensembles, we (1) substantialize the vague notion of diversity in a graph ensemble as the diversity of the numeral characteristics of the graphs within this ensemble and (2) compare such formalized diversity for the proposed model with that of three other common models (Erdős–Rényi–Gilbert (ERG), scale-free, and small-world). Computational experiments show that, in most cases, our approach produces more diverse sets of graphs compared with the three other models, including the entropy-maximizing ERG. The corresponding Python code is available at GitHub.     

Financial Return Distributions: Past,Present, and COVID-19

We analyze the price return distributions of currency exchange rates, cryptocurrencies, and contracts for differences (CFDs) representing stock indices, stock shares, and commodities. Based on recent data from the years 2017–2020, we model tails of the return distributions at different time scales by using power-law, stretched exponential, and q-Gaussian functions. We focus on the fitted function parameters and how they change over the years by comparing our results with those from earlier studies and find that, on the time horizons of up to a few minutes, the so-called “inverse-cubic power-law” still constitutes an appropriate global reference. However, we no longer observe the hypothesized universal constant acceleration of the market time flow that was manifested before in an ever faster convergence of empirical return distributions towards the normal distribution. Our results do not exclude such a scenario but, rather, suggest that some other short-term processes related to a current market situation alter market dynamics and may mask this scenario. Real market dynamics is associated with a continuous alternation of different regimes with different statistical properties. An example is the COVID-19 pandemic outburst, which had an enormous yet short-time impact on financial markets. We also point out that two factors—speed of the market time flow and the asset cross-correlation magnitude—while related (the larger the speed, the larger the cross-correlations on a given time scale), act in opposite directions with regard to the return distribution tails, which can affect the expected distribution convergence to the normal distribution.     

Analysis of Blind Reconstruction of BCH Codes

In this paper, the theoretical lower-bound on the success probability of blind reconstruction of Bose–Chaudhuri–Hocquenghem (BCH) codes is derived. In particular, the blind reconstruction method of BCH codes based on the consecutive roots of generator polynomials is mainly analyzed because this method shows the best blind reconstruction performance. In order to derive a performance lower-bound, the theoretical analysis of BCH codes on the aspects of blind reconstruction is performed. Furthermore, the analysis results can be applied not only to the binary BCH codes but also to the non-binary BCH codes including Reed–Solomon (RS) codes. By comparing the derived lower-bound with the simulation results, it is confirmed that the success probability of the blind reconstruction of BCH codes based on the consecutive roots of generator polynomials is well bounded by the proposed lower-bound.     

Collective Strategy Condensation: When Envy Splits Societies

Human societies are characterized by three constituent features, besides others. (A) Options, as for jobs and societal positions, differ with respect to their associated monetary and non-monetary payoffs. (B) Competition leads to reduced payoffs when individuals compete for the same option as others. (C) People care about how they are doing relatively to others. The latter trait—the propensity to compare one’s own success with that of others—expresses itself as envy. It is shown that the combination of (A)–(C) leads to spontaneous class stratification. Societies of agents split endogenously into two social classes, an upper and a lower class, when envy becomes relevant. A comprehensive analysis of the Nash equilibria characterizing a basic reference game is presented. Class separation is due to the condensation of the strategies of lower-class agents, which play an identical mixed strategy. Upper-class agents do not condense, following individualist pure strategies. The model and results are size-consistent, holding for arbitrary large numbers of agents and options. Analytic results are confirmed by extensive numerical simulations. An analogy to interacting confined classical particles is discussed.     

The Relationship between Crude Oil Futures Market and Chinese/US Stock Index Futures Market Based on Breakpoint Test

Combined with the B-P (breakpoint) test and VAR–DCC–GARCH model, the relationship between WTI crude oil futures and S&P 500 index futures or CSI 300 index futures was investigated and compared. The results show that breakpoints exist in the relationship in the mean between WTI crude oil futures market and Chinese stock index futures market or US stock index futures market. The relationship in mean between WTI crude oil futures prices and S&P 500 stock index futures, or CSI 300 stock index futures is weakening. Meanwhile, there is a decreasing dynamic conditional correlation between the WTI crude oil futures market and Chinese stock index futures market or US stock index futures market after the breakpoint in the price series. The Chinese stock index futures are less affected by short-term fluctuations in crude oil futures returns than US stock index futures.     

Integrated Information in the Spiking–Bursting Stochastic Model

Integrated information has been recently suggested as a possible measure to identify a necessary condition for a system to display conscious features. Recently, we have shown that astrocytes contribute to the generation of integrated information through the complex behavior of neuron–astrocyte networks. Still, it remained unclear which underlying mechanisms governing the complex behavior of a neuron–astrocyte network are essential to generating positive integrated information. This study presents an analytic consideration of this question based on exact and asymptotic expressions for integrated information in terms of exactly known probability distributions for a reduced mathematical model (discrete-time, discrete-state stochastic model) reflecting the main features of the “spiking–bursting” dynamics of a neuron–astrocyte network. The analysis was performed in terms of the empirical “whole minus sum” version of integrated information in comparison to the “decoder based” version. The “whole minus sum” information may change sign, and an interpretation of this transition in terms of “net synergy” is available in the literature. This motivated our particular interest in the sign of the “whole minus sum” information in our analytical considerations. The behaviors of the “whole minus sum” and “decoder based” information measures are found to bear a lot of similarity—they have mutual asymptotic convergence as time-uncorrelated activity increases, and the sign transition of the “whole minus sum” information is associated with a rapid growth in the “decoder based” information. The study aims at creating a theoretical framework for using the spiking–bursting model as an analytically tractable reference point for applying integrated information concepts to systems exhibiting similar bursting behavior. The model can also be of interest as a new discrete-state test bench for different formulations of integrated information.     

Spatio-temporal dynamics of security investments in an interdependent risk environment

In a globalised world where risks spread through contagion, the decision of an entity to invest in securing its premises from stochastic risks no longer depends solely on its own actions but also on the actions of other interacting entities in the system. This phenomenon is commonly seen in many domains including airline, logistics and computer security and is referred to as Interdependent Security (IDS). An IDS game models this decision problem from a game-theoretic perspective and deals with the behavioural dynamics of risk-reduction investments in such settings. This paper enhances this model and investigates the spatio-temporal aspects of the IDS games. The spatio-temporal dynamics are studied using simple replicator dynamics on a variety of network structures and for various security cost tradeoffs that lead to different Nash equilibria in an IDS game. The simulation results show that the neighbourhood configuration has a greater effect on the IDS game dynamics than network structure. An in-depth empirical analysis of game dynamics is carried out on regular graphs, which leads to the articulation of necessary and sufficient conditions for dominance in IDS games under spatial constraints.     

A Caputo–Fabrizio Fractional-Order Model of HIV/AIDS with a Treatment Compartment: Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Control Strategies

Although most of the early research studies on fractional-order systems were based on the Caputo or Riemann–Liouville fractional-order derivatives, it has recently been proven that these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, kernels of these methods have a singularity that occurs at the endpoint of an interval of definition. Thus, to overcome this issue, several new definitions of fractional derivatives have been introduced. The Caputo–Fabrizio fractional order is one of these nonsingular definitions. This paper is concerned with the analyses and design of an optimal control strategy for a Caputo–Fabrizio fractional-order model of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The Caputo–Fabrizio fractional-order model of HIV/AIDS is considered to prevent the singularity problem, which is a real concern in the modeling of real-world systems and phenomena. Firstly, in order to find out how the population of each compartment can be controlled, sensitivity analyses were conducted. Based on the sensitivity analyses, the most effective agents in disease transmission and prevalence were selected as control inputs. In this way, a modified Caputo–Fabrizio fractional-order model of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is proposed. By changing the contact rate of susceptible and infectious people, the atraumatic restorative treatment rate of the treated compartment individuals, and the sexual habits of susceptible people, optimal control was designed. Lastly, simulation results that demonstrate the appropriate performance of the Caputo–Fabrizio fractional-order model and proposed control scheme are illustrated.     

Dynamical Analysis of a New Chaotic Fractional Discrete-Time System and Its Control

This article proposes a new fractional-order discrete-time chaotic system, without equilibria, included two quadratic nonlinearities terms. The dynamics of this system were experimentally investigated via bifurcation diagrams and largest Lyapunov exponent. Besides, some chaotic tests such as the 0–1 test and approximate entropy (ApEn) were included to detect the performance of our numerical results. Furthermore, a valid control method of stabilization is introduced to regulate the proposed system in such a way as to force all its states to adaptively tend toward the equilibrium point at zero. All theoretical findings in this work have been verified numerically using MATLAB software package.     

Analysis on International Competitiveness of Service Trade in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area Based on Using the Entropy and Gray Correlation Methods

Based on the analysis and measurement of the overall situation, import and export structure and international competitiveness of the various sectors of service trade in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, with the help of MATLAB and Gray System Modeling software, the synergy degree model was established to quantitatively analyze the synergy level of service trade in the Greater Bay Area with the help of grey correlation analysis method and entropy weight method. The results show that the overall development trend of service trade in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area is good. The service trade industries in different regions are highly complementary and have a high degree of correlation. The potential for the coordinated development of internal service trade is excellent, and the overall situation of service trade in the Greater Bay Area is in a stage of transition from a moderate level of synergy to a high level of synergy. The Greater Bay Area can achieve industrial synergy by accelerating industrial integration and green transformation, establishing a coordinated development mechanism, sharing market platform, strengthening personnel security, and further enhancing the international competitiveness of service trade. The established model better reflects the current coordination of service trade in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area and has good applicability. In the future, more economic, technological, geographic, and policy data and information can be comprehensively used to study the spatial pattern, evolution rules, and mechanisms of coordinated development in the broader area.     

A New First-Order Integer-Valued Autoregressive Model with Bell Innovations

A Poisson distribution is commonly used as the innovation distribution for integer-valued autoregressive models, but its mean is equal to its variance, which limits flexibility, so a flexible, one-parameter, infinitely divisible Bell distribution may be a good alternative. In addition, for a parameter with a small value, the Bell distribution approaches the Poisson distribution. In this paper, we introduce a new first-order, non-negative, integer-valued autoregressive model with Bell innovations based on the binomial thinning operator. Compared with other models, the new model is not only simple but also particularly suitable for time series of counts exhibiting overdispersion. Some properties of the model are established here, such as the mean, variance, joint distribution functions, and multi-step-ahead conditional measures. Conditional least squares, Yule–Walker, and conditional maximum likelihood are used for estimating the parameters. Some simulation results are presented to access these estimates’ performances. Real data examples are provided.     

Training Multilayer Perceptron with Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization for Modeling Stock Price Index Prediction

Predicting stock market (SM) trends is an issue of great interest among researchers, investors and traders since the successful prediction of SMs’ direction may promise various benefits. Because of the fairly nonlinear nature of the historical data, accurate estimation of the SM direction is a rather challenging issue. The aim of this study is to present a novel machine learning (ML) model to forecast the movement of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 index. Modeling was performed by multilayer perceptron–genetic algorithms (MLP–GA) and multilayer perceptron–particle swarm optimization (MLP–PSO) in two scenarios considering Tanh (x) and the default Gaussian function as the output function. The historical financial time series data utilized in this research is from 1996 to 2020, consisting of nine technical indicators. Results are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and correlation coefficient values to compare the accuracy and performance of the developed models. Based on the results, the involvement of the Tanh (x) as the output function, improved the accuracy of models compared with the default Gaussian function, significantly. MLP–PSO with population size 125, followed by MLP–GA with population size 50, provided higher accuracy for testing, reporting RMSE of 0.732583 and 0.733063, MAPE of 28.16%, 29.09% and correlation coefficient of 0.694 and 0.695, respectively. According to the results, using the hybrid ML method could successfully improve the prediction accuracy.     

Structural Entropy of the Stochastic Block Models

With the rapid expansion of graphs and networks and the growing magnitude of data from all areas of science, effective treatment and compression schemes of context-dependent data is extremely desirable. A particularly interesting direction is to compress the data while keeping the “structural information” only and ignoring the concrete labelings. Under this direction, Choi and Szpankowski introduced the structures (unlabeled graphs) which allowed them to compute the structural entropy of the Erdős–Rényi random graph model. Moreover, they also provided an asymptotically optimal compression algorithm that (asymptotically) achieves this entropy limit and runs in expectation in linear time. In this paper, we consider the stochastic block models with an arbitrary number of parts. Indeed, we define a partitioned structural entropy for stochastic block models, which generalizes the structural entropy for unlabeled graphs and encodes the partition information as well. We then compute the partitioned structural entropy of the stochastic block models, and provide a compression scheme that asymptotically achieves this entropy limit.     

Dissipation-Dependent Thermal Escape from a Potential Well

Langevin simulations are conducted to investigate the Josephson escape statistics over a large set of parameter values for damping and temperature. The results are compared to both Kramers and Büttiker–Harris–Landauer (BHL) models, and good agreement is found with the Kramers model for high to moderate damping, while the BHL model provides further good agreement down to lower damping values. However, for extremely low damping, even the BHL model fails to reproduce the progression of the escape statistics. In order to explain this discrepancy, we develop a new model which shows that the bias sweep effectively cools the system below the thermodynamic value as the potential well broadens due to the increasing bias. A simple expression for the temperature is derived, and the model is validated against direct Langevin simulations for extremely low damping values.