近50年中国降水及温度变化在干旱形成中的影响

根据中国气象局1958—2007年194站的温度、降水和Palmer旱涝指数（Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI）均一化数据库，构建统计模型量化了温度和降水变化在干旱形成中所占的比重，尤其讨论了中国8个气候区域温度和降水变化在干旱成因中的特征.受全球增温趋势的影响，未来中国北方地区的干旱化趋势仍将继续.未来五年内干旱发生概率较大的地区主要分布在中国华北，且有持续向南扩张的趋势，一直延伸到江淮地区.在全球变暖的背景下，降水减少仍然是中国东部干旱形成的主要因素.相对于南方地 关键词： 降水 全球变暖 干旱

The impact of temperature and precipitation variation on drought in China in last 50 years

Based on homogeneous temeperature, precipitation and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data between 1958 and 2007 of 194 stations in China, quantitative measure of impact of global warming and precipitation variation on the formation of drought in China is made through a statistical model. Dividing China into eight regions, we analyzed the importance of global warming and precipitation variations in each region respectively. Under the background of global warming, the trend of drought in north China still persists. The most probable region of drought in the next five years shows a tendendy of expansion in north China, especially in the direction to the south. Decreased precipitation is still the key factor in drought formation in most regions. However, in the north, northeast and east-northwest China, global warming plays a bigger role in drought formation.