正规战争的随机微分方程模型

分析了战争中双方战斗人数的不确定性因素,论述了战争中战斗人数是一个随机过程,从而建立了正规战的随机微分方程模型.根据Ito微积分公式,导出了这个随机微分方程的It解.计算了战斗人数这一随机过程的期望,给出了依据所建立的随机微分方程模型预测战争胜负的判据.最后以硫磺岛战争为例,给出了美、日双方胜负的可能性的分析和数据模拟计算.

A model of Stochastic Differential Equations for the Regular Warfare

This paper analyzes the uncertainty factors in the number of two sides fight in the war,illustrates the number of two sides is a random process,and establishes a model of stochastic differential equation for the regular war.According to the It6 differential equation,the It6 solution of the above model of stochastic differential equations is derived,and the expectation of the random process of the battle is calculated,and the criterion of predicting the outcome of the war are obtained.Finally,taking the war in the sulfur Island for example,the analysis of the probability of the victory or defeat of the United States and Japan and the numerical simulation are given.