Efficient Data Augmentation for Fitting Stochastic Epidemic Models to Prevalence Data

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time evolution of an epidemic gives rise to a complicated latent variable problem in which the state space size of the epidemic grows large as the population size increases. This makes analytically integrating over the missing data infeasible for populations of even moderate size. We present a data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework for Bayesian estimation of stochastic epidemic model parameters, in which measurements are augmented with subject-level disease histories. In our MCMC algorithm, we propose each new subject-level path, conditional on the data, using a time-inhomogenous continuous-time Markov process with rates determined by the infection histories of other individuals. The method is general, and may be applied to a broad class of epidemic models with only minimal modifications to the model dynamics and/or emission distribution. We present our algorithm in the context of multiple stochastic epidemic models in which the data are binomially sampled prevalence counts, and apply our method to data from an outbreak of influenza in a British boarding school. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for Muon Count in UHECR Extensive Air-Showers

The main goal of this work is to adapt a Physics problem to the Machine Learning (ML) domain and to compare several techniques to solve it. The problem consists of how to perform muon count from the signal registered by particle detectors which record a mix of electromagnetic and muonic signals. Finding a good solution could be a building block on future experiments. After proposing an approach to solve the problem, the experiments show a performance comparison of some popular ML models using two different hadronic models for the test data. The results show that the problem is suitable to be solved using ML as well as how critical the feature selection stage is regarding precision and model complexity.     

基于高光谱成像的生鲜猪肉细菌总数预测建模方法研究

生鲜猪肉中细菌总数(TVC)超标会直接危害大众,为此研究验证高光谱成像技术结合相应的建模方法预测生鲜猪肉中TVC的可行性。针对非线性、小样本问题, 以及光谱维和空间维的大数据量问题,在综合比较偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)、人工神经网络(ANNs)和最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)3种建模方法的基础上,最终选取了LS-SVM方法组建模型。3种建模方法综合比较的结果表明,LS-SVM同时兼顾了训练精度和泛化能力两方面的性能,使其都能做到最优,与标准平板菌落计数法所检测TVC的决定系数分别为0.987 2和0.942 6,校正均方根误差和预测标准均方根误差分别为0.207 1和0.217 6,其建模性能优于其他方法。研究结果表明,高光谱成像技术结合LS-SVM预测建模方法可作为快速、非破坏预测生鲜猪肉TVC的有效手段。     

Effect of mobile phase anionic additives on selectivity,efficiency, and sample loading capacity of cationic drugs in reversed-phase liquid chromatography

In the present work, we study the effect of mobile phase anionic additive type and concentration on the selectivity, efficiency, and sample loading capacity of cationic drugs in reversed-phase liquid chromatography (RPLC). The type and concentration of an anionic additive are known to have a strong effect on the absolute retention of cations in RPLC; in contrast they have only a small effect on the selectivity of one cation relative to a second as seen here. This is mainly due to the similarity of the ion pair formation constants between the selected cations. The limiting retention factors of cations (i.e. the retention factor of the fully ion-paired analyte at very high additive concentration) are roughly proportional to their inherent hydrophobicities (i.e. the retention factor of the analyte in the absence of the anionic additive). With a given anion, differences in ion pairing strength between the solutes are required for effective selectivity adjustment. Based on the Wade–Lucy–Carr (W–L–C) kinetic model of overload peaks, the approach we developed in our previous work was used to study the effect of mobile phase anionic additives type and concentration on the limiting plate count (N₀) and sample loading capacity (ω_0.5) of various cationic drugs. Under linear chromatographic conditions, where the analyte exhibits its smallest peak width and thus maximum apparent plate count, the type and concentration of anionic additives have almost no effect on peak width. In comparison to neutral analytes the sorption isotherms of cationic species are very easily overloaded even when many fewer moles of cations as compared to neutrals are injected. We showed that different anionic additives profoundly affect the cations’ “overload profiles” (i.e. plots of plate count versus amount injected) by changing the sample loading capacities. The increase in sample loading capacities with different anions show the same order as the extent of ion pairing between the anions and the basic analytes. The detrimental effect of sample overloading on peak width can be greatly diminished by using either a stronger ion pairing agent or a higher concentration of a given ion pairing agent. Both effects operate by increasing the sample loading capacity, thereby allowing more solute to be injected. We believe that the increase in sample loading capacity described above is due in part to the increase in the number of ion-exchange sites as more anions sorb to the stationary phase. At the same time, the formation of a neutral ion-paired analyte also increases the amount of cation which can be loaded onto the stationary phase by allowing a greater fraction of the analyte to be present in the stationary phase as an electrically neutral (i.e. ion-paired) species.     

迈克尔逊干涉仪测波长的一种便捷方法

提出了迈克尔逊干涉仪测波长的一种便捷且精确的测量方法。利用自制的光电计数及电机控制装置,在短时间内无须任何数据处理便可由计数器直接读取待测光源波长值。该方法不仅实现了条纹的全自动计数,又简化了干涉仪繁复的读数环节,更消除了仪器的零点误差。     

多气隙电阻板室抗辐照性能研究

给出了为RHIC-STAR飞行时间探测器设计的多气隙电阻板室(MRPC)的辐照实验结果. 实验采用100mCi⁶⁰Co γ源, 采用不同的剂量率对MRPC进行辐照. 一个室在大剂量率2.87×10^－2Gy/h下辐照了24h后, 其性能如噪声计数率, 暗电流等均大大退化. 另一个室在相对低剂量率5.31×10^－4Gy/h下辐照了530h, 其性能没有见到任何变坏. 实验的目的是为了了解这种探测器在几年的运行中经过大剂量的辐照后的性能变化情况.     

High Speed Image Acquisition ＆ Neutral Particle Count Systems and the RTX Research

In HL-2A tokamak experiment, high speed image acquisitoin system grabs images and shows them in real-time. It provides serial images of discharge to help scientists a lot to analyse the experiment. Neutral particle count system counts the number of neutral particles radiated from fusion plasmas. It provides the data to calculate the ion energy.     

Effects of Anti-Bacterial Agents,Sample Preparation and Contact Time on Anti-Bacterial Efficacy in MDPE Film

The anti-bacterial efficacy of medium-density polyethylene (MDPE) with various contents of different anti-bacterial agents was studied with respect to the effects of the anti-bacterial concentration, size and form of MDPE test-specimen, and the contact time. The three anti-bacterial agents used were carbendazim and zinc dimethyl dithiocarbamate (TROYSAN-S88), 2-hydroxypropyl3-piperazinyl-quinoline carboxylic acid methacrylate (HPQM), and silver substituted zeolite (ZEOMIC). The halo and plate-count-agar (PCA) tests were employed to assess the efficacies of the anti-bacterial performance. It was found that the inhibition zone from the halo test was most visible for the HPQM agent; the higher the HPQM content, the greater the inhibition zone. ZEOMIC exhibited no inhibition zone. The PCA test results suggested that after incorporating HPQM agent in the MDPE matrix, the% reductions of E. coli and S. aureus bacteria were as successfully high as 99.9% for all HPQM loadings.