Demand variability and incentives in inventory-based contracts

We present some results on the impact of demand variability on stocking policies and incentives to forecast, in the context of single period inventory-based contracts in a manufacturer-retailer channel.     

Intensity range as a function of task and training

This study examined intensity range as a function of elicitation task (reading and automatic speech sequences), musical training, and the interaction between task and musical training in 31 college students. The results indicated significant differences in loudness range by experiental task. Intensity range for the descending automatic sequence was significantly greater than that for the ascending and reading tasks. While the overall effect of musical training was nonsignificant, there was a significant interaction between task and training, with musicians having a significantly greater mean range on the ascending task. A comparison between ascending and descending tasks indicated a significant mean difference between lower limits and no significant mean difference between upper limits. The range for the reading probe was located approximately in the middle of the total available intensity range.     

Intra- and intersubject variability in acoustic measures of normal voice

Twenty-four normal adult women read part of the Rainbow Passage and sustained vowels three trials each. Utterances were assessed for selected parameters measured by Visi-Pitch (average and SD of fundamental frequency (F₀), average and SD of dBA, perturbation, and percent voiced/unvoiced/pause). Assessment of each parameter included measures of central tendency, dispersion, and distribution characteristics (skewness and kurtosis) of the data and of the ranges of values that would include 95% of the scores (95% fiduciary limits). Generally, differences for the group between the three trials were not significant. Intersubject variability for only a few parameters was less than 20% of the parameter's mean. For vowels, variability of jitter was 30–48% of the mean. Eight subjects provided performances 2 months later to obtain an estimate of intrasubject variability over time. There were desirable intrasubject correlations between performances for mean F₀, jitter in reading and on vowels /i/ and /a/, and percent of voicing. Inter- and intrasubject variability seems restricted and the data appear to resemble a normally distributed function for mean F₀ on reading, jitter on /i/, and percent of voicing. Thus, these parameters may have statistical merit for use in vocal testing.     

Region of variability of two subclasses of univalent functions

Let F₁ (F₂ respectively) denote the class of analytic functions f in the unit disk |z|<1 with f(0)=0=f^′(0)−1 satisfying the condition RePf(z)<3/2 (RePf(z)>−1/2 respectively) in |z|<1, where Pf(z)=1+zf^″(z)/f^′(z). For any fixed z₀ in the unit disk and λ∈[0,1), we shall determine the region of variability for logf^′(z₀) when f ranges over the class and , respectively.     

Analytical and numerical solutions of the expected number of occurrences for combinations of event sequences due to variability

This paper investigates variability in the occurrence of different event sequences on an annual basis during the operation of a proposed nuclear facility. During the operational period of a nuclear facility, the annual radiological dose received by workers or members of the public depends on the number of event sequence occurrences. Based on the facility design, some combinations of event sequences will be expected to occur at least once during the operational period, and some combinations will not. This paper provides analytical solutions for calculating the expected number of combinations of independent event sequences. These analytical solutions agree with numerical solutions for an example problem. Although uncertainties can be incorporated into the method, only point-estimate parameter values are used in the example problem presented. The main objectives of this paper are to present calculational approaches to (i) identify which combinations of event sequences within the same year are expected to occur at least once during the operational life of a proposed facility and (ii) determine the annual doses from those identified combinations. Facility performance based on some proposed design is evaluated against the operational dose limits. Because the operational dose limits tend to be annual quantities that may not be exceeded in any year of operation, calculation of the doses resulting from combinations of event sequences that are expected to occur at least once can provide insight on the maximum annual dose expected during the operation of a proposed facility.     

Method ruggedness studies incorporating a risk based approach: a tutorial

This tutorial explains how well thought-out application of design and analysis methodology, combined with risk assessment, leads to improved assessment of method ruggedness. The authors define analytical method ruggedness as an experimental evaluation of noise factors such as analyst, instrument or stationary phase batch. Ruggedness testing is usually performed upon transfer of a method to another laboratory, however, it can also be employed during method development when an assessment of the method's inherent variability is required. The use of a ruggedness study provides a more rigorous method for assessing method precision than a simple comparative intermediate precision study which is typically performed as part of method validation. Prior to designing a ruggedness study, factors that are likely to have a significant effect on the performance of the method should be identified (via a risk assessment) and controlled where appropriate. Noise factors that are not controlled are considered for inclusion in the study. The purpose of the study should be to challenge the method and identify whether any noise factors significantly affect the method's precision. The results from the study are firstly used to identify any special cause variability due to specific attributable circumstances. Secondly, common cause variability is apportioned to determine which factors are responsible for most of the variability. The total common cause variability can then be used to assess whether the method's precision requirements are achievable. The approach used to design and analyse method ruggedness studies will be covered in this tutorial using a real example.     

Stochasticity in the image greenhouse model

The potential impacts of climate change are a major issue in the Greenhouse debate. Various models and particularly IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect), are being used by the IPCC to investigate climate change. The IMAGE model has been reduced to a system of differential equations and incorporates various initial conditions and model parameters. These initial conditions and parameter values are not known precisely and are subject to variability of various forms. This paper briefly describes the mathematical form of IMAGE and then investigates the stochastic properties of the model. Particular attention is paid to the propagation and amplification of assumed distributions for the initial conditions and certain key physical parameters. The IMAGE model appears to be quite robust with respect to these stochastic characteristics.