累积Logistic回归模型结构变点的序贯检验

分类时间序列在生物医学、社会学和遗传学等领域有着广泛的应用,累积Logistic回归模型是分类时间序列建模的一类重要模型.本文基于偏似然得分过程(Partial likelihood score process)提出一种变点序贯检验方法,监测累积Logistic回归模型的结构是否发生变化.原假设下推导检验统计量的极限分...     

无穷方差厚尾过程变点的小波估计

研究随机设计下噪声为厚尾随机变量时非参数函数中的变点估计问题.首先,通过设计变换将随机设计转化为等间距固定设计,进而利用小波方法估计变换后的变点的位置,再利用逆设计变换求得随机设计下变点位置的估计,并给出估计的收敛速度.模拟研究结果说明对于无穷方差厚尾过程中的变点估计问题小波方法是有效的.     

A Functional Law of the Iterated Logarithm for U-Statistic Type Processes

We prove a functional law of the iterated logarithm for U-statistics type processes. The result is used to determine the almost sure set of limit points for change-point estimators.     

A Generalized Markov Sampler

A recent development of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is the emergence of MCMC samplers that allow transitions between different models. Such samplers make possible a range of computational tasks involving models, including model selection, model evaluation, model averaging and hypothesis testing. An example of this type of sampler is the reversible jump MCMC sampler, which is a generalization of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. Here, we present a new MCMC sampler of this type. The new sampler is a generalization of the Gibbs sampler, but somewhat surprisingly, it also turns out to encompass as particular cases all of the well-known MCMC samplers, including those of Metropolis, Barker, and Hastings. Moreover, the new sampler generalizes the reversible jump MCMC. It therefore appears to be a very general framework for MCMC sampling. This paper describes the new sampler and illustrates its use in three applications in Computational Biology, specifically determination of consensus sequences, phylogenetic inference and delineation of isochores via multiple change-point analysis.     

Statistical Computations on Biological Rhythms I: Dissecting Variable Cycles and Computing Signature Phases in Activity-Event Time Series

We propose a computational methodology to compute and extract circadian rhythmic patterns from an individual animal’s activity-event time series. This lengthy dataset, composed of a sequential event history, contains an unknown number of latent rhythmic cycles of varying duration and missing waveform information. Our computations aim at identifying the onset signature phase which individually indicates a sharp event intensity surge, where a subject-night ends and a brand new cycle’s subject-day begins, and collectively induces a linearity manifesting the individual circadian rhythmicity and information about the average period. Based on the induced linearity, the least squares criterion is employed to choose an optimal sequence of computed onset signature phases among a finite collection derived from the hierarchical factor segmentation (HFS) algorithm. The multiple levels of coding schemes in the HFS algorithm are designed to extract contrasting patterns of aggregation against sparsity of activity events along the entire temporal axis. This optimal sequence dissects the whole time series into a sequence of rhythmic cycles without model assumptions or ad hoc behavioral definitions regarding the missing waveform information. The performance of our methodology is favorably compared with two popular approaches based on the periodogram in a simulation study and in real data analyses. The computer code and data used in this article are available on the JCGS webpage.     

无穷方差厚尾过程中非参数函数的小波估计

研究无穷方差厚尾过程中含有变点的非参数函数的估计问题。通过小波方法给出变点位置的估计值并得到其收敛速度。在已知变点估计值的基础上,将截尾方法与小波压缩方法相结合得到非参数函数的估计值。模拟研究结果说明对于无穷方差厚尾过程中的函数估计问题小波方法是有效的。     

Identification of the Hurst Index of a Step Fractional Brownian Motion

We propose a semi-parametric estimator for a piece-wise constant Hurst coefficient of a step fractional Brownian motion (SFBM). For the applications, we want to detect abrupt changes of the Hurst index (which represents long-range correlation) for a Gaussian process with a.s. continuous paths. The previous model of multifractional Brownian motion give a.s. discontinuous paths at change times of the Hurst index. Thus, we first propose a new kind of Fractional Brownian Motion, the SFBM and prove some (Hölder) continuity results. After, we propose an estimator of the piecewise constant Hurst parameter and prove its consistency.     

Choosing a Linear Model with a Random Number of Change-Points and Outliers

The problem of determining a normal linear model with possible perturbations, viz. change-points and outliers, is formulated as a problem of testing multiple hypotheses, and a Bayes invariant optimal multi-decision procedure is provided for detecting at most k (k > 1) such perturbations. The asymptotic form of the procedure is a penalized log-likelihood procedure which does not depend on the loss function nor on the prior distribution of the shifts under fairly mild assumptions. The term which penalizes too large a number of changes (or outliers) arises mainly from realistic assumptions about their occurrence. It is different from the term which appears in Akaikes or Schwarz criteria, although it is of the same order as the latter. Some concrete numerical examples are analyzed.     

Testing for parameter changes in ARCH models

The paper develops the asymptotic theory for CUSUM-type tests for a change point in parameters of an ARCH(∞) model. Special attention is given to asymptotics under local alternatives. Research partially supported by EPSRC grant GR/L/78222 from the University of Liverpool. Partially supported by NATO grant CRG 960503. Partially supported by the Lithuanian State Science and Studies Foundation, Grant K-014. Published in Lietuvos Matematikos Rinkinys, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 231–247, April–June, 1999.     

The asymptotic behavior of a random walk on a dual-medium lattice

This paper considers the asymptotic distribution for the horizontal displacement of a random walk in a medium represented by a two-dimensional lattice, whose transitions are to nearest-neighbor sites, are symmetric in the horizontal and vertical directions, and depend on the column currently occupied. On either side of a change-point in the medium, the transition probabilities are assumed to obey an asymptotic density condition. The displacement, when suitably normalized, converges to a diffusion process of oscillating Brownian motion type. Various special cases are discussed.