基于经典层合板理论的简支梁力学分析

与传统的金属材料相比,复合材料具有比强度高、比模量大,耐疲劳性、耐腐蚀性好,且热性能和电性能良好等优点。本文选择复合材料对简支梁进行铺层设计,首先从简支梁的受力分析入手,根据复合材料力学的经典层合板理论和弹性力学的基本方程,建立简支梁的数学模型;然后对简支梁进行结构设计,确定简支梁的铺层角度与铺层数目,构建复合材料结构,对复合材料简支梁进行静力学分析;最后利用蔡吴张量准则进行强度校核。     

Optimal distribution of reliability for a large network based on connectivity

It is a non-polynomial complexity problem to calculate connectivity of the complex network. When the system reliability cannot be expressed as a function of element reliability, we have to apply some heuristic methods for optimization based on connectivity of the network. The calculation structure of connectivity of complex network is analyzed in the paper. The coefficient matrixes of Taylor second order expansion of the system connectivity is generated based on the calculation structure of connectivity of complex network. An optimal schedule is achieved based on genetic algorithms （GA）. Fitness of seeds is calculated using the Taylor expansion function of system connectivity. Precise connectivity of the optimal schedule and the Taylor expansion function of system connectivity can be achieved by the approved Minty method or the recursive decomposition algorithm. When error between approximate connectivity and the precise value exceeds the assigned value, the optimization process is continued using GA, and the Taylor function of system connectivity needs to be renewed. The optimization process is called iterative GA. Iterative GA can be used in the large network for optimal reliability attribution. One temporary optimal result will be generated every time in the iteration process. These temporary optimal results approach the real optimal results. They can be regarded as a group of approximate optimal results useful in the real project.     

大型网络基于连通可靠度的最优可靠度分配

由于网络连通可靠度计算属于NP-hard问题,当系统可靠度无法显式表达时,基于连通可靠度的大型复杂网络优化通常只能采用启发式优化算法解决．通过对复杂网络连通可靠度算法结构的分析,给出了系统连通可靠度的Taylor方程．采用遗传算法,由系统连通可靠度的Taylor方程确定种群适应值,得到一个系统最优可靠度分配方案;将最优解带入改进Minty算法或递推分解算法中,计算该最优解的连通可靠度精确值和对应的连通可靠度的Taylor展开方程;再次采用遗传算法求最优解．当最优解对应的可靠度精确值和Taylor方程算得得近似值误差小于指定精度时,则此最优解为最终的系统最优可靠度分配方案A·D2将此优化过程称为迭代遗传算法．算例显示迭代遗传算法不仅可用于大型网络的连通可靠度最优分配,而且优化迭代过程中可以得到多组阶段最优解,这些解均落在最优解附近,构成了近似最优解群,在实际工程优化中拓展了选择面．     

基于Copula-GJR-Skewt模型的投资组合风险预测研究

针对多元投资组合的风险预测,采用GJR-Skewt模型刻画单资产的厚尾、有偏特征,以及Copula模型刻画多元投资组合的非线性相关结构,用Monte Carlo方法模拟金融资产的随机分布,并结合滚动时间窗法,对投资组合的未来风险进行样本外动态预测.实证结果表明,Copula-GJR-Skewt模型对资产收益的风险预测能取得满意的效果;在VaR预测性能上,以GJR-Skewt模型作为边缘分布函数时,即使存在系统偏差,也能取得最优预测结果;预设残差服从有偏学生分布时,VaR的预测结果优于正态分布;传统的Garch-Guassian模型预测能力最差.