A heterogeneous boundedly rational expectation model for housing market

This research aims to test the housing price dynamics when considering heterogeneous boundedly rational expectations such as naive expectation, adaptive expectation and biased belief. The housing market is investigated as an evolutionary system with heterogeneous and competing expectations. The results show that the dynamics of the expected housing price varies substantially when heterogeneous expectations are considered together with some other endogenous factors. Simulation results explain some stylized phenomena such as equilibrium or oscillation, convergence or divergence, and over-shooting or under-shooting. Furthermore, the results suggest that variation of the proportion of groups of agents is basically dependent on the selected strategies. It also indicates that control policies should be chosen carefully in consistence with a unique real estate market during a unique period since certain parameter portfolio may increase or suppress oscillation.     

住宅市场价格波动的异质有限预期模型

研究目的在于分析异质有限预期条件下,住宅市场的价格波动.住宅市场被视为由具有异质、互竞预期的行为人所构成的演化系统.研究结果解释了住宅市场价格波动的一些典型现象,如均衡或震荡、收敛或偏离等.此外,研究显示市场结构的变动取决于行为人的策略选择.由于不同市场调节工具对价格波动的影响不同,市场监控政策应视特定市场、特定时期的具体情况而制定.     

异质预期条件下房价波动非线性延滞差分方程

通过建立蛛网模型分析经济变动对具有后向预期性质的房地产市场的价格波动的影响.其中,市场需求函数采用简单使用者成本模型,而供给函数则以存量-流量模型为基础.通过建立一组n阶延滞差分方程来分析一类异质后向预期房价波动模型的性质,例如均衡或振荡,收敛或偏离等.结果显示需求弹性小于供给弹性并不是形成振荡的必要条件.房价的波动会随着异质后向预期假设以及其他内生因素的不同而产生本质不同的变化.     

Nonlinear delay difference equations for housing dynamics assuming heterogeneous backward-looking expectations

China's first interest rate hike during the last decade, aiming to cool down the seemingly overheated real estate market, had aroused more caution on housing market. This paper aims to analyze the housing price dynamics after an unanticipated economic shock, which was believed to have similar properties with the back ward- looking expectation models. The analysis of the housing price dynamics is based on the cobweb model with a simple user cost affected demand and a stock-flow supply assumption. Several nth-order delay rational difference equations are set up to illustrate the properties of housing dynamics phenomena, such as the equilibrium or oscillations, overshoot or undershoot and convergent or divergent, for a kind of heterogeneous backward-looking expectation models. The results show that demand elasticity is less than supply elasticity is not a necessary condition for the occurrence of oscillation. The housing price dynamics will vary substantially with the heterogeneous backward-looking expectation assumption and some other endogenous factors.