我国冷的时期气候超常不稳定的历史证据

本文采用我国1471年以来的26个水旱等级序列和一个合并的冬温指数序列作为数据。分析表明,降水变率和平均温度的振动,在统计上都是显著的。结果发现,我国东部地区中纬度,历史时期内平均温度与降水年际变率之间关系的分布,是一种比较复杂的地区性的分布型式,相关系数的符号也不相同。但是无论在范围上或在大小上均以负相关占优势。作者提出了小冰期是一个极值频繁的时期的证据,并证实冷的时期气候超常不稳定。     

HISTORICAL EVIDENCE ON CLIMATIC INSTABILITY ABOVE NORMAL IN COOL PERIODS IN CHINA

Twenty-six sequences of grades of dryness/wetness and a combined sequence of indexes of winter temperature since A.D. 1471 in China were adopted as our data. The fluctuations of variability of precipitation and mean temperature are statistically significant from analyses. It has been found that in middle latitudes of eastern China the distribution of the relation between mean temperature and interannual variability of precipitation in historical time forms a rather complex regional pattern, and the correlation coefficients are not unique in signs. But the negative correlations are dominant either in extent or in magnitude. The authors provide evidence that Little Ice Age was a time of more frequent extremes and support the idea that the climatic instability is above normal in cool periods.