Comparison of two models for managing reliability growth during product design

Relying on reliability growth testing to improve system designis neither usually effective nor efficient. Instead it is importantto design in reliability. This requires models to estimate reliabilitygrowth in the design that can be used to assess whether goalreliability will be achieved within the target timescale forthe design process. Many models have been developed for analysisof reliability growth on test, but there has been much lessattention given to reliability growth in design. This paperdescribes and compares two models: one motivated by the practicalengineering process; the other by extending the reasoning ofstatistical reliability growth modelling. Both models are referencedin the recently revised edition of international standard IEC61164. However, there has been no reported evaluation of theirproperties. Therefore, this paper explores the commonalitiesand differences between these models through an assessment oftheir logic and their application to an industrial example.Recommendations are given for the use of reliability growthmodels to aid management of the design process and to informproduct development.     

Mixing methodologies to enhance the implementation of healthcare operational research

Healthcare Operational Research (OR) has had limited success in achieving a sufficient level of stakeholder acceptance to lead to implementation of results. This research study is aimed at combining OR methodologies to achieve greater acceptance of results for organizational change. Patient flow delays in the Paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) at Children's Hospital of Wisconsin were identified using case studies. Patient flow was modelled using hard OR (simulation) using case study findings, with active stakeholder participation, and enhanced with outcomes research. Outcomes research allowed achieving greater clinical relevance of OR findings. Results from hard OR, particularly for politically sensitive issues, were persuasive but inadequate to result in change. Soft OR (cognitive mapping) was used to identify new issues and enhance results. Consequently, the planned PICU expansion was deferred, and resources focused on improving staffing strategies identified independently from both hard and soft OR. These findings suggest that: (1) Outcomes research can play a unique role to enhance results in healthcare OR. (2) After obtaining a holistic understanding of the system using hard and soft OR, stakeholders are willing to implement results from each independently, supporting the development of a common form of knowledge, which is consistent with Mixed-Mode Modelling. (3) Hard OR, enhanced with outcomes research, with active stakeholder participation, and combined with soft OR, results in greater acceptance and sustained organizational change.     

Cost–benefit modelling for reliability growth

Decisions during the reliability growth development process of engineering equipment involve trade-offs between cost and risk. However slight, there exists a chance an item of equipment will not function as planned during its specified life. Consequently the producer can incur a financial penalty. To date, reliability growth research has focussed on the development of models to estimate the rate of failure from test data. Such models are used to support decisions about the effectiveness of options to improve reliability. The extension of reliability growth models to incorporate financial costs associated with ‘unreliability’ is much neglected. In this paper, we extend a Bayesian reliability growth model to include cost analysis. The rationale of the stochastic process underpinning the growth model and the cost structures are described. The ways in which this model can be used to support cost–benefit analysis during product development are discussed and illustrated through a simple case.     

Determination of dietary fibre as non-starch polysaccharides by gas-liquid chromatography.

An improved method is described for the measurement of total, soluble and insoluble dietary fibre as non-starch polysaccharides (NSP). An established procedure is modified to allow more rapid removal of starch and hydrolysis of NSP. In its present form the procedure is simpler and more robust than those previously published. In the modified method starch is removed enzymically within 50 min and NSP is precipitated with ethanol and then hydrolysed by treatment with sulfuric acid for 2 h. The constituent sugars can in turn be measured by gas-liquid chromatography, high-performance liquid chromatography or more rapidly by colorimetry. The improved procedure described here for the removal of starch and hydrolysis of NSP applies to all three techniques, but only the method for measurement of sugars by gas-liquid chromatography is described here in full.     

Sequential injection analysis with dynamic surface tension detection High throughput analysis of the interfacial properties of surface-active samples

A sequential injection analysis (SIA) system is coupled with dynamic surface tension detection (DSTD) for the purpose of studying the interfacial properties of surface-active samples. DSTD is a novel analyzer based upon a growing drop method, utilizing a pressure sensor measurement of drop pressure. The pressure signal depends on the surface tension properties of sample solution drops that grow and detach at the end of a capillary tip. In this work, SIA was used for creating a reagent concentration gradient, and for blending the reagent gradient with a steady-state sample. The sample, consisting of either sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) or poly(ethylene glycol) at 1470 g mol⁻¹ (PEG 1470), elutes with a steady-state concentration at the center of the sample plug. Reagents such as Brij®35, tetrabutylammonium (TBA) hydroxide and β-cyclodextrin were introduced as a concentration gradient that begins after the sample plug has reached the steady-state concentration. By blending the reagent concentration gradient with the sample plug using SIA/DSTD, the kinetic surface pressure signal of samples mixed with various reagent concentrations is observed and evaluated in a high throughput fashion. It was found that the SIA/DSTD method consumes lesser reagent and required significantly less analysis time than traditional FIA/DSTD. Four unique chemical systems were studied with regard to how surface activity is influenced, as observed through the surface tension signal: surface activity addition, surface activity reduction due to competition, surface activity enhancement due to ion-pair formation, and surface activity reduction due to bulk phase binding chemistry.     

Supplier quality improvement: The value of information under uncertainty

We consider supplier development decisions for prime manufacturers with extensive supply bases producing complex, highly engineered products. We propose a novel modelling approach to support supply chain managers decide the optimal level of investment to improve quality performance under uncertainty. We develop a Poisson–Gamma model within a Bayesian framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in non-conformance rates. Estimates are obtained to value a supplier quality improvement activity and assess if it is worth gaining more information to reduce epistemic uncertainty. The theoretical properties of our model provide new insights about the relationship between the degree of epistemic uncertainty, the effectiveness of development programmes, and the levels of investment. We find that the optimal level of investment does not have a monotonic relationship with the rate of effectiveness. If investment is deferred until epistemic uncertainty is removed then the expected optimal investment monotonically decreases as prior variance increases but only if the prior mean is above a critical threshold. We develop methods to facilitate practical application of the model to industrial decisions by a) enabling use of the model with typical data available to major companies and b) developing computationally efficient approximations that can be implemented easily. Application to a real industry context illustrates the use of the model to support practical planning decisions to learn more about supplier quality and to invest in improving supplier capability.     

Efficiency of bridging between related dose finding studies

The statistical problem of bridging is closely associated with the problem of heterogeneity in dose-finding studies. There are some distinctive features in the case of bridging which need to be considered if efficient estimation of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) is to be accomplished. The case of two distinct populations is considered. Extensions to several populations are, at least in principle, straightforward although, in practice, likely to be awkward and infrequently encountered. The goal is to make efficient use of information gained in one study in the context of a second study. Since working models are typically misspecified it is not possible to just add a further parameter to deal with an added source of variability.     

Systematic evaluation of acetone and acetonitrile for use in hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray ionization mass spectrometry of basic small molecules

Sub‐2‐µm particle size hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography [HILIC] combined with mass spectrometry has been increasing in popularity as a complementary technique to reversed‐phase LC for the analysis of polar analytes. The organic‐rich mobile phase associated with HILIC techniques provides increases in compound ionization, due to increased desolvation efficiency during electrospray ionisation mass spectrometric (ESI‐MS) analysis. Although recent publications illustrated selectivity and response comparisons between reversed‐phase LC/MS and HILIC LC/MS, there are limited discussions evaluating the optimisation of the mass spectrometry parameters regarding analytes and alternative mobile phases. The use of acetone as an alternative organic modifier in HILIC has been investigated with respect to signal‐to‐noise in ESI‐MS for a variety of polar analytes. Analyte reponses were measured based on a variety of cone and capillary voltages at low and high pH in both acetone and acetonitrile. In order to visualise compound behaviour in the ESI source, surface plots were constructed to assist in interpreting the observed results. The use of acetone in ESI is complicated at low m/z due to the formation of condensation products. Favourable responses were observed for certain analytes and we envisage offering an insight into the use of acetone as an alternative to acetonitrile under certain analytical conditions for particular compound classifications for small molecule analysis. We also highlight the importance of optimising source voltages in order to obtain the maximum signal stability and sensitivity, which are invariably, highly solvent composition dependent parameters. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.