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海气耦合系统相似韵律现象的研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文首先利用一个相似离差形式的海气耦合模式,探讨了相似韵律现象形成的动力学机制,指出相似韵律现象的产生是由于在月平均环流季节变化的强迫下,海气系统非线性耦合相互作用造成的相似离差扰动的不均匀振荡。文中进一步利用一个全球海气耦合的动力-统计季节长期数值预报模式,对相似韵律现象进行了数值模拟和各种敏感性实验,结果不仅证实了理论分析结果,也为进一步利用该模式进行季节长期数值预报提供了依据。 相似文献
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An approach to estimating and extrapolating model error based on inverse problem methods:towards accurate numerical weather prediction 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1 下载免费PDF全文
Model error is one of the key factors restricting the accuracy of numerical weather prediction(NWP). Considering the continuous evolution of the atmosphere, the observed data(ignoring the measurement error) can be viewed as a series of solutions of an accurate model governing the actual atmosphere. Model error is represented as an unknown term in the accurate model, thus NWP can be considered as an inverse problem to uncover the unknown error term. The inverse problem models can absorb long periods of observed data to generate model error correction procedures. They thus resolve the deficiency and faultiness of the NWP schemes employing only the initial-time data. In this study we construct two inverse problem models to estimate and extrapolate the time-varying and spatial-varying model errors in both the historical and forecast periods by using recent observations and analogue phenomena of the atmosphere. Numerical experiment on Burgers’ equation has illustrated the substantial forecast improvement using inverse problem algorithms. The proposed inverse problem methods of suppressing NWP errors will be useful in future high accuracy applications of NWP. 相似文献
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Analogue correction method of errors and its application to numerical weather prediction 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5 下载免费PDF全文
In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors (ACE) based on a
complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical
weather prediction (NWP). The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively
reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the
dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of
historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model. Furthermore,
in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical
analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for
estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction
experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance
of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors
of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the
scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single
analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model. 相似文献
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From the large-scale equations of atmospheric motion, we investigated the long-time behaviour of atmospheric system forcing by exterior steady sources. Firstly, we established the fundamental functional space and operator equations, and then demonstrated the existence and uniqueness theorems of solutions. Based on these results, the existence of the bounded global absorbing set and invariant set in it were discussed. Finally, the nonlinear adjustment process to exterior sources was revealed. 相似文献
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For certain particular initial values, the results of numerical weather prediction are extremely sensitive to the errors in some parameters of the models, which probably is one of the reasons to bring about serious failures to the forecast. In this paper, this speculation is shown by an example of numerical experiments, and it is suggested that the parameters in the models be modified with the information provided by observational data of the recent atmospheric evolution to avoid failures of the forecast. The numerical simulation tests with a simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic model have obtained satisfying results. 相似文献
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集合预报是考虑初始条件和模式不确定性的有效途径. 结合延伸期可预报性特征,对具有不同特性的可预报分量和随机分量采用不同的集合预报方案和策略,发展了一种基于延伸期可预报性的集合预报新方法(PBEP).该方法以延伸期数值预报模式为平台,对可预报分量采用多个模式误差订正方案,从考虑模式不确定性的角度进行集合;而对随机分量则利用历史资料从气候概率的角度给出集合概率分布,避免模式误差对随机分量概率分布的影响.试验结果表明,相比于国家气候中心的业务动力延伸集合预报系统,该集合预报方法对全球各区域环流预报技巧均有提高,对不同空间尺度的波也有不同程度的改进,显示出潜在的业务应用前景. 相似文献
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受下垫面强迫的一类强对流系统特征及预报 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文根据具有强迫耗散非线性动力系统理论,提出了至少有些类型的中尺度对流系统可以是以大尺度场为控制变量的中尺度动力系统的吸引子,它的发生是大尺度场演变到一定的临界点使原来的状态失稳而迅速进入到吸引子的过程。这样预报它的发生就成了吸引子的计算而不严格依赖中尺度初始状态。用一个十层原始方程有限区域谱模式对发生在华东中尺度试验期间的实际个例进行了计算,结果证实了理论分析。 相似文献