Analogue correction method of errors and its application to numerical weather prediction |
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Authors: | Gao Li Ren Hong-Li Li Jian-Ping and Chou Ji-Fan |
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Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China |
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Abstract: | In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors (ACE) based on a
complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical
weather prediction (NWP). The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively
reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the
dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of
historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model. Furthermore,
in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical
analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for
estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction
experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance
of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors
of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the
scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single
analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model. |
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Keywords: | numerical weather prediction analogue correction method of errors reference state analogue-dynamical model |
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