Arbitrage‐free call option surface construction using regression splines

In this work, we suggest a novel quadratic programming‐based algorithm to generate an arbitrage‐free call option surface. The empirical performance of the proposed method is evaluated using S&P 500 Index call options. Our results indicate that the proposed method provides a more precise fit to observed option prices than other alternative methodologies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Price coordination in distribution channels: A dynamic perspective

In this study, we investigate two important questions related to dynamic pricing in distribution channels: (i) Are coordinated pricing decisions efficient in a context where prices have carry-over effects on demand? (ii) Should firms practice a skimming or a penetration strategy if they choose to coordinate or to decentralize their activities? To answer these questions, we consider a differential game that takes place in a bilateral monopoly where the past retail prices paid by consumers contribute to the building of a reference price. The latter is used by consumers as a benchmark to evaluate the value of the product, and by firms to decide whether to adopt a skimming or a penetration strategy.     

Probabilism,entropies and strictly proper scoring rules

Accuracy arguments are the en vogue route in epistemic justifications of probabilism and further norms governing rational belief. These arguments often depend on the fact that the employed inaccuracy measure is strictly proper. I argue controversially that it is ill-advised to assume that the employed inaccuracy measures are strictly proper and that strictly proper statistical scoring rules are a more natural class of measures of inaccuracy. Building on work in belief elicitation I show how strictly proper statistical scoring rules can be used to give an epistemic justification of probabilism.An agent's evidence does not play any role in these justifications of probabilism. Principles demanding the maximisation of a generalised entropy depend on the agent's evidence. In the second part of the paper I show how to simultaneously justify probabilism and such a principle. I also investigate scoring rules which have traditionally been linked with entropies.     

考虑专利保护和渠道偏好的再制造双渠道闭环供应链决策与协调

本文在电子商务环境下考虑消费者对零售渠道和直销渠道具有不同的渠道偏好,研究了专利许可零售商实施再制造的双渠道闭环供应链定价决策和协调问题。运用博弈论方法求得了集中决策和分散决策情形下的最优定价策略,并分析了消费者渠道偏好系数对节点企业最优定价策略及利润的影响。针对分散决策存在效率损失的问题,以集中决策的最优解为基准,通过联合运用一个由批发价格、直销价格和专利许可费构成的定价机制和一个利润分享机制,实现了双渠道闭环供应链的完美协调。     

Geometrical methods for analyzing the optimal management of tipping point dynamics

Natural resources are not infinitely resilient and should not be modeled as being such. Finitely resilient resources feature tipping points and history dependence. This paper provides a didactical discussion of mathematical methods that are needed to understand the optimal management of such resources: viscosity solutions of Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations, the costate equation and the associated canonical equations, exact root counting, and geometrical methods to analyze the geometry of the invariant manifolds of the canonical equations. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Management of natural resources has to take into account the possible breakdown of resilience and induced regime shifts.
• Depending on the characteristics of the resource and on its present and future economic importance, either for all initial states the same kind of management policy is optimal, or the type of the optimal management policy depends on the initial state.
• Modeling should reflect the finiteness of the data.

     

Separation between second price auctions with personalized reserves and the revenue optimal auction

When buyer valuations are drawn IID from a known regular distribution, a second price auction with a symmetric reserve price is the revenue-optimal single-item auction. When this distribution is irregular, we provide the first separation result showing that a second price auction with reserves earns at most 0.778 times the revenue of Myerson’s optimal auction, even when the reserves can be asymmetric. Since the lower bound is 0.745 for i.i.d. buyers, our result is nearly tight.     

Complex dynamics in equilibrium asset pricing models with boundedly rational,heterogeneous agents

We study a simple model based upon the Lucas framework where heterogeneous agents behave rationally in a fully intertemporal setting but do not know other investors' personal preferences, wealth or investment portfolios. As a consequence, agents initially do not know the equilibrium asset pricing function and must make guesses, which they update via adaptive learning with constant gain. We demonstrate that even in this simple environment the economy can, depending on parameters, exhibit either stable convergence to equilibrium, or chaotic dynamical behavior of asset prices and trading volume without converging to the rational expectations equilibrium of the Lucas model. This contradicts the assertion that the Lucas model is stable in the face of modest deviations from the strong assumptions required to compute the equilibrium. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 19: 38–55, 2014     

The valuation of life contingencies: A symmetrical triangular fuzzy approximation

This paper extends the framework for the valuation of life insurance policies and annuities by Andrés-Sánchez and González-Vila (2012, 2014) in two ways. First we allow various uncertain magnitudes to be estimated by means of fuzzy numbers. This applies not only to interest rates but also to the amounts to be paid out by the insurance company. Second, the use of symmetrical triangular fuzzy numbers allows us to obtain expressions for the pricing of life contingencies and their variability that are closely linked to standard financial and actuarial mathematics. Moreover, they are relatively straightforward to compute and understand from a standard actuarial point of view.     

Lot‐sizing policies for deterioration items under two‐level trade credit with partial trade credit to credit‐risk retailer and limited storage capacity

The main purpose of this article is to investigate the optimal wholesaler's replenishment decisions for deterioration items under two levels of the trade credit policy and two storage facilities in order to reflect the supply chain management situation within the economic order quantity framework. In this study, each of the following assumptions have been made: (1) The own warehouse with limited capacity always is not sufficient to store the order quantity, so that a rented warehouse is needed to store the excess units over the capacity of the own warehouse; (2) The wholesaler always obtains the partial trade credit, which is independent of the order quantity offered by the supplier, but the wholesaler offers the full trade credit to the retailer; (3) The wholesaler must take a loan to pay his or her supplier the partial payment immediately when the order is received and then pay off the loan with the entire revenue. Under these three conditions, the wholesaler can obtain the least costs. Furthermore, this study models the wholesaler's optimal replenishment decisions under the aforementioned conditions in the supply chain management. Two theorems are developed to efficiently determine the optimal replenishment decisions for the wholesaler. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the theorems that are proven in this study, and the sensitivity analysis with respect to the major parameters in this study is performed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Utility maximization problem with random endowment and transaction costs: when wealth may become negative

In this article, we study the problem of maximizing expected utility from the terminal wealth with proportional transaction costs and random endowment. In the context of the existence of consistent price systems, we consider the duality between the primal utility maximization problem and the dual one, which is set up on the domain of finitely additive measures. In particular, we prove duality results for utility functions supporting possibly negative values. Moreover, we construct a shadow market by the dual optimal process and consider the utility-based pricing for random endowment.