基于不确定理论的铁路货运需求预测

合理预测铁路货运需求是铁路管理部门建设、运营等决策基础。为应对铁路货运需求的复杂变化,基于Pearson相关性分析方法筛选出铁路货运需求的七个具有关键影响的因素,并结合不确定理论建立不确定多元线性回归模型,相应的铁路货运预测结果由传统单一值变成可能的需求区间范围,更加符合处于不确定环境下的铁路货运需求实际情况。选取国家统计局2004~2016年相关数据进实证研究,并与回归模型以及BP模型的预测结果对比分析,实验表明不确定多元线性回归的预测结果更加精确。     

砂岩方梁断裂过程区范围的实验确定方法

裂纹前端的断裂过程区是引起岩石非线性断裂及尺寸效应的主要原因。利用数字图像相关技术对砂岩开展了三点弯曲梁实验,获得观测区域高精度的全场位移和应变数据,根据断裂韧带区域水平位移和水平应变的分布特征,结合裂尖岩石颗粒变化的微观分析,提出采用裂纹尖端水平位移波动性和水平应变突变性所得到的波动系数和水平应变突变值,确定断裂过程区形状和临界尺寸的方法。结果表明:砂岩断裂过程区的形状为不规则的狭长带状区域,断裂过程区的临界长度为11~13mm,临界宽度为1.58~2.36mm。断裂过程区区域内形变在趋向裂尖时呈指数增加,但其单位区域内的形变增量呈波动状态。该方法能够更加准确判断岩石断裂过程区的范围,有助于分析岩石的非线性断裂特性。     

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for Muon Count in UHECR Extensive Air-Showers

The main goal of this work is to adapt a Physics problem to the Machine Learning (ML) domain and to compare several techniques to solve it. The problem consists of how to perform muon count from the signal registered by particle detectors which record a mix of electromagnetic and muonic signals. Finding a good solution could be a building block on future experiments. After proposing an approach to solve the problem, the experiments show a performance comparison of some popular ML models using two different hadronic models for the test data. The results show that the problem is suitable to be solved using ML as well as how critical the feature selection stage is regarding precision and model complexity.     

A volatolomic approach using cerumen as biofluid to diagnose bovine intoxication by Stryphnodendron rotundifolium

An innovative volatolomic approach employs the detection of biomarkers present in cerumen (earwax) to identify cattle intoxication by Stryphnodendron rotundifolium Mart., Fabaceae (popularly known as barbatimão). S. rotundifolium is a poisonous plant with the toxic compound undefined and widely distributed throughout the Brazilian territory. Cerumen samples from cattle of two local Brazilian breeds (‘Curraleiro Pé-Duro’ and ‘Pantaneiro’) were collected during an experimental intoxication protocol and analyzed using headspace (HS)/GC–MS followed by multivariate analysis (genetic algorithm for a partial least squares, cluster analysis, and classification and regression trees). A total of 106 volatile organic metabolites were identified in the cerumen samples of bovines. The intoxication by S. rotundifolium influenced the cerumen volatolomic profile of the bovines throughout the intoxication protocol. In this way, it was possible to detect biomarkers for cattle intoxication. Among the biomarkers, 2-octyldecanol and 9-tetradecen-1-ol were able to discriminate all samples between intoxicated and nonintoxicated bovines. The cattle intoxication diagnosis by S. rotundifolium was accomplished by applying the cerumen analysis using HS/GC–MS, in an easy, accurate, and noninvasive way. Thus, the proposed bioanalytical chromatography protocol is a useful tool in veterinary applications to determine this kind of intoxication.     

PN结物理特性的开放式测量实验方法研究

开放式、综合性量测实验的设计与应用,在巩固基础理论知识的同时,能够有效培养学生的动手实践能力、数据处理及分析能力,一定程度代表着大学物理实验课程的教学模式改革方向。以PN结物理特性的测量实验为例,基于通用型仪器与元器件的积木式组合,设计出简单、适用的实验电路;t=17.95℃时所采集的原始实验数据经三种模式回归分析,比较验证了PN结扩散电流与电压间遵循的玻尔兹曼分布律;计算出的玻尔兹曼常数与FD-PN-4测定仪的量测值相比,其结果说明了开放式测量实验方法的有效性。     

Arbitrage‐free call option surface construction using regression splines

In this work, we suggest a novel quadratic programming‐based algorithm to generate an arbitrage‐free call option surface. The empirical performance of the proposed method is evaluated using S&P 500 Index call options. Our results indicate that the proposed method provides a more precise fit to observed option prices than other alternative methodologies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incremental dynamic mode decomposition: A reduced-model learner operating at the low-data limit

The present work aims at proposing a new methodology for learning reduced models from a small amount of data. It is based on the fact that discrete models, or their transfer function counterparts, have a low rank and then they can be expressed very efficiently using few terms of a tensor decomposition. An efficient procedure is proposed as well as a way for extending it to nonlinear settings while keeping limited the impact of data noise. The proposed methodology is then validated by considering a nonlinear elastic problem and constructing the model relating tractions and displacements at the observation points.     

Dicationic disiloxane ionic liquids

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Classical Backfitting for Smooth-Backfitting Additive Models

Smooth backfitting has been shown to have better theoretical properties than classical backfitting for fitting additive models based on local linear regression. In this article, we show that the smooth backfitting procedure in the local linear case can be alternatively performed as a classical backfitting procedure with a different type of smoother matrices. These smoother matrices are symmetric and shrinking and some established results in the literature are readily applicable. The connections allow the smooth backfitting algorithm to be implemented in a much simplified way, give new insights on the differences between the two approaches in the literature, and provide an extension to local polynomial regression. The connections also give rise to a new estimator at data points. Asymptotic properties of general local polynomial smooth backfitting estimates are investigated, allowing for different orders of local polynomials and different bandwidths. Cases of oracle efficiency are discussed. Computer-generated simulations are conducted to demonstrate finite sample behaviors of the methodology and a real data example is given for illustration. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.