Periodic solutions of a periodic stochastic human immunodeficiency virus model with distributed delay and cytotoxic T lymphocytes immune response

In this paper, a periodic stochastic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) model with distributed delay and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) immune response is investigated. First, by It $ô$'s formula, we show that the solution with any positive initial value is global and positive. Then, by the stochastic comparison theorem, we obtain the sufficient conditions guaranteeing the existence and global attractivity of infection-free periodic solution. Furthermore, we discuss the existence of the infective periodic solution by Has'minskii theory. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.     

基于FDI收益分成视角的FTA网络演化

本文假定双边自由贸易协定(bilateral free trade agreement,简称FTA)包含着无限制对外直接投资(foreign direct investment,简称FDI),并且通过FDI销售到非FTA伙伴国的收益按照一定比例在母国和东道国之间进行分配。基于Goyal和Joshi^[1],本文构建了FTA网络形成博弈模型。本文发现,FTA网络演化过程分为两个阶段:第一阶段,从空FTA网络到星状FTA网络,存在一条路径使得个体国家福利、世界总福利均改善,在此过程中,国家福利存在不对称性;第二阶段,从星状FTA网络到全连接FTA网络,存在一条路径使得个体国家福利改善,在此过程中,世界总福利不变,国家福利不对称性逐步消除。     

Maxentropic approach to decompound aggregate risk losses

A risk manager may be faced with the following problem: she/he has obtained loss data collected during a year, but the data only contains the total number of events and the total loss for that year. She/he suspects that there are different sources of risk, each occurring with a different frequency, and wants to identify the frequency with which each type of event occurs and if possible, the individual losses at each risk event.The purpose of this methodological note is to examine a combination of disentangling and decompounding procedures, to get as close as possible to that goal. The disentangling procedure is actually a two step process: First, a preliminary analysis is carried out to determine the number of risks groups present. Once that is decided, the underlying model for the frequency of each type of risk is worked out. After that we use the maxentropic techniques in the decompounding stage to determine the distribution of individual losses that aggregated yield the observed total loss.     

AN INDIVIDUAL‐BASED MODEL FOR FERAL HOGS IN GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK

The expansion of feral hog (Sus scrofa) populations in the United States has resulted in increased efforts to develop and implement control strategies designed to minimize the impacts done by this invasive species. We describe an individual‐based model for feral hogs in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP). The objectives of the model are to provide an understanding of the population dynamics of this feral hog population and to determine the efficacy of the annual harvest as a population control method. Results suggest that the dynamics of the population are driven by fall hard mast production and the GSMNP harvests currently limit growth of the population, but these control efforts have not reduced the population.     

基于社会网络的舆情传播模型构建与分析

本文考虑个体间的相互作用,提出了一个基于社会网络分析的舆情传播模型.模型假设网络中每个个体的初始状态只有两种情况,并且在单位时间步内只选择一个邻居进行交流,并以概率λ接受该邻居的意见.解析结果显示存在概率λc使得网络中持某种观点人数比例的期望值是一个常数,而其它状态下系统中所有个体的意见都会达成一致.本模型有助于衡量某给定社会网络中舆论传播的快慢程度.     

纳税最优的工资奖金分配方案研究

根据我国现行的税法,个人所得税纳税采用九级累进税率.年工资和年终奖在速算扣除数个数上存在不同,使得对于相同的税前年收入,如果采用不同的年工资和年终奖分配方案会产生不同的税后实际所得.通过简化变量和缩小有效解区域,以及一系列严格的数学推导,得到了任意年收入下,月工资和年终奖的最优分配方案,使得在现有税制下,纳税额最小,税后收入最大.这个最优方案避免了税金负效应现象,保证了纳税公平性,有利于国家税务监管,企业员工薪金分配和个人纳税筹划;具有广阔的应用前景.     

丝素纤维/硫酸钙抗感染骨材料的制备及性能

通过控制丝素蛋白自组装过程制备了溶液状态下的丝素纳米纤维（silk fibroin nanofibers,SFFs）,与硫酸钙、万古霉素（vancomycin,VCM）复合,制备了VCM/CS/SFFs抗菌骨材料。通过SEM、XRD、紫外分光光度计、万能力学试验机、抑菌圈、MTT等手段分别研究了复合材料的微观形貌与结构、药物释放、力学、抑菌及细胞相容性等性能。结果显示,与水作为固化液相比,随着SFFs溶液（0.017 5~2.1 mg·mL^-1）的加入,复合材料凝固时间可控,降解率逐渐降低,抗水性增强,韧性提高;同时随丝素纳米纤维含量的增加骨材料抗压强度表现为先增加后减小的趋势,一周内药物释放速率降低;材料同时具有抑菌作用;MTT实验结果显示,加入丝素纳米纤维后与纯的硫酸钙相比MC3T3细胞增殖明显。     

Source Apportionment for the Zinc—Containing Component of Air Particulate Matter using Automated Electron Probe Micro Analysis of Individual Particles

Abstract

A methodology is described for the apportionment of zinc-containing particulate matter sampled in the vicinity of a zinc smelter to their corresponding sources in the factory. Bulk samples of particulate matter from six potential emission sources were analysed by automated electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) in order to characterize the individual particles. Based on a data set of relative peak intensities and with the aid of a binary clustering method, the most important particle classes were identified. They were used as a basis for the development of a set of disjunct identification rules (decision rules), which were able to describe the classes in a unique manner. Applying these rules upon ambient particulate data enabled the estimation of relative contributions of different types of zinc-containing particles. Evidence was found that a large number of particles was modified by a soil component or by gas phase reactions.     

The impact of human activity patterns on asymptomatic infectious processes in complex networks

The study of the impact of human activity patterns on network dynamics has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. However, individuals’ knowledge of their own physical states has rarely been incorporated into modeling processes. In real life, for certain infectious processes, infected agents may not have any visible or physical signs and symptoms; therefore, they may believe that they are uninfected even when they have been infected asymptomatically. This infection awareness factor is covered neither in the classical epidemic models such as SIS nor in network propagation studies. In this article, we propose a novel infectious process model that differentiates between the infection awareness states and the physical states of individuals and extend the SIS model to deal with both asymptomatic infection characteristics and human activity patterns. With regards to the latter, we focus particularly on individuals’ testing action, which is to determine whether an individual is infected by an epidemic. The simulation results show that less effort is required in controlling the disease when the transmission probability is either very small or large enough and that Poisson activity patterns are more effective than heavy-tailed patterns in controlling and eliminating asymptomatic infectious diseases due to the long-tail characteristic.     

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection.