Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indices

We analyze 27 house price indices of Las Vegas from June 1983 to March 2005, corresponding to 27 different zip codes. These analyses confirm the existence of a real estate bubble, defined as a price acceleration faster than exponential, which is found, however, to be confined to a rather limited time interval in the recent past from approximately 2003 to mid-2004 and has progressively transformed into a more normal growth rate comparable to pre-bubble levels in 2005. There has been no bubble till 2002 except for a medium-sized surge in 1990. In addition, we have identified a strong yearly periodicity which provides a good potential for fine-tuned prediction from month to month. A monthly monitoring using a model that we have developed could confirm, by testing the intra-year structure, if indeed the market has returned to “normal” or if more turbulence is expected ahead. We predict the evolution of the indices one year ahead, which is validated with new data up to September 2006. The present analysis demonstrates the existence of very significant variations at the local scale, in the sense that the bubble in Las Vegas seems to have preceded the more global USA bubble and has ended approximately two years earlier (mid-2004 for Las Vegas compared with mid-2006 for the whole of the USA).     

二级传递性与二级传递模糊矩阵

推广传递性概念,给出二级传递性的定义;研究二级传递模糊矩阵的性质,给出其若干等价刻画;证明二级传递模糊矩阵或者收敛或者周期为2,指数不大于n 1;讨论二级传递与强传递、k-传递和泛传递等概念之间的关系,指出二级传递是传递性概念的一种新的推广形式。     

Symmetry and periodicity of potential surfaces: a test for multicenter interactions

Symmetry and periodicity of potential energy surfaces of chemical reactions and conformational changes are determined by the symmetry properties of the nuclear frameworks of all possible nuclear configurations of the given overall stoichiometry. For example, a mirror plane of a nuclear configuration implies a mirror plane of the potential surface (or that of the potential energy hypersurface in higher dimensions), and a local rotational symmetry of substituents implies a translational symmetry, that is, periodicity of the potential surface, if the latter is defined in terms of the usual bond length/bond angle internal coordinates. Such symmetry relations on potential surfaces are rather trivial consequences of molecular symmetry properties; however, when taken collectively for entire domains of nuclear configurations, they lead to nontrivial conclusions. Whereas symmetry properties and energy contents of individual conformations can be studied locally within limited domains of the potential surface, a global analysis of the potential surface may reveal significantly more. In this note, some consequences of the above approach are explored, and a simple test is proposed for the detection and evaluation of the importance of multicenter interactions in conformers related to one another by bond rotations.Dedicated to Professor J. Koutecký on the occasion of his 65th birthday     

Multi-dimensional versions of a theorem of Fine and Wilf and a formula of Sylvester

Let be vectors in which generate . We show that a body with the vectors as edge vectors is an almost minimal set with the property that every function with periods is constant. For the result reduces to the theorem of Fine and Wilf, which is a refinement of the famous Periodicity Lemma.

Suppose is not a non-trivial linear combination of with non-negative coefficients. Then we describe the sector such that every interior integer point of the sector is a linear combination of over , but infinitely many points on each of its hyperfaces are not. For the result reduces to a formula of Sylvester corresponding to Frobenius' Coin-changing Problem in the case of coins of two denominations.

     

一类二阶非线性常微分方程的初值问题

本文建立了一类二阶非线性常微分方程初值问题的一个定理,给出了它的关于解的周期性、振动性和估计式的三个推论及对应于它们的例子,指出由Thomas、DeSpantz和Lerman、Klamkin和Reid及Stare等人所考察过的一些二阶非线性常微分方程都是本文方程的特例。     

Two-pattern strings II—frequency of occurrence and substring complexity

The previous paper in this series introduced a class of infinite binary strings, called two-pattern strings, that constitute a significant generalization of, and include, the much-studied Sturmian strings. The class of two-pattern strings is a union of a sequence of increasing (with respect to inclusion) subclasses T_λ of two-pattern strings of scope λ, λ=1,2,…. Prefixes of two-pattern strings are interesting from the algorithmic point of view (their recognition, generation, and computation of repetitions and near-repetitions) and since they include prefixes of the Fibonacci and the Sturmian strings, they merit investigation of how many finite two-pattern strings of a given size there are among all binary strings of the same length. In this paper we first consider the frequency f_λ(n) of occurrence of two-pattern strings of length n and scope λ among all strings of length n on {a,b}: we show that lim_n→∞f_λ(n)=0, but that for strings of lengths n2λ, two-pattern strings of scope λ constitute more than one-quarter of all strings. Since the class of Sturmian strings is a subset of two-pattern strings of scope 1, it was natural to focus the study of the substring complexity of two-pattern strings to those of scope 1. Though preserving the aperiodicity of the Sturmian strings, the generalization to two-pattern strings greatly relaxes the constrained substring complexity (the number of distinct substrings of the same length) of the Sturmian strings. We derive upper and lower bounds on C₁(k) (the number of distinct substring of length k) of two-pattern strings of scope 1, and we show that it can be considerably greater than that of a Sturmian string. In fact, we describe circumstances in which lim_k→∞(C₁(k)−k)=∞.     

Symmetric multistep Obrechkoff methods with zero phase-lag for periodic initial value problems of second order differential equations

In this paper, symmetric multistep Obrechkoff methods of orders 8 and 12, involving a parameter p to solve a special class of second order initial value problems in which the first order derivative does not appear explicitly, are discussed. It is shown that the methods have zero phase-lag when p is chosen as 2π times the frequency of the given initial value problem.