基于毛竹叶片理化参数的刚竹毒蛾危害检测研究

虫害检测算法研究是开展虫害快速、准确监测，制定精准森防检疫措施的重要基础。以毛竹叶片为研究尺度，基于刚竹毒蛾危害下的寄主外部形态与内部生理现象总结，选择并实测叶损量LL、相对叶绿素含量RCC、相对含水量RWC、原始光谱的733.66~898.56 nm值(ρ_{733.66~898.56})、一阶微分光谱的562.95~585.25 nm值(ρ′_{562.95~585.25})与706.18~725.41 nm值(ρ′_{706.18~725.41})等理化参数，随机划分实验组(63组)和验证组(37组)并设计5次重复实验；分别运用Fisher判别分析、BP神经网络、随机森林等三种方法建立刚竹毒蛾危害等级的检测模型，从检测精度、Kappa系数及R2等指标对模型的检测效果予以分析和比较。结果显示，Fisher判别分析、BP神经网络、随机森林的检测精度分别为69.19%，65.41%，83.78%，Kappa系数分别为0.576 9，0.532 4和0.778 8，R2分别为0.722 2，0.582 6和0.870 9，总体而言，三种方法均具备刚竹毒蛾危害的检测能力，随机森林的检测效果最优，Fisher判别分析次之，再次为BP神经网络；从分等级来看，随机森林的检测精度亦优于Fisher判别分析与BP神经网络，但3种方法对中度危害等级的检测精度均有所不足。该成果可为刚竹毒蛾危害及其他病虫害检测算法的选择提供参考，并为进一步建立冠层、遥感影像像元等尺度的虫害检测模型奠定基础。     

The MAP/PH/N retrial queue in a random environment

We consider the MAP/PH/N retrial queue with a finite number of sources operating in a finite state Markovian random environment. Two different types of multi-dimensional Markov chains are investigated describing the behavior of the system based on state space arrangements. The special features of the two formulations are discussed. The algorithms for calculating the stationary state probabilities are elaborated, based on which the main performance measures are obtained, and numerical examples are presented as well.     

蒙特卡罗计算中颗粒型燃料的随机分布模型比较

高温气冷堆是新一代反应堆系统的热门候选堆型，已经受到国际上越来越多的关注。为设计和分析这种堆型，因其特有的包覆颗粒燃料引入了双重非均匀性，需要应用随机分布模型。对粗网格模型、细网格随机(FLS)模型、随机顺序添加(RSA)模型、子网格随机(Sub-FLS)模型和Metropolis模型等进行了研究，通过计算分析比较给出了各种模型的优缺点。结果表明:子网格随机模型和连续的RSA模型非常接近参考值，但是连续RSA模型的建模时间随着燃料体积份额的增加连续快速上升。 Key words: coated particle fuels; stochastic transport model; Monte Carlo; random distribution     

基于空间统计模型的热带气旋路径模拟及其风险评估

该研究致力于建立台风路径模拟模型,目的在于提高风险评估的稳健性和实用性。首先,采用中国台风网提供的CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集,以广东省为研究区域,通过引入空间统计模型,结合马尔可夫—蒙特卡罗方法模拟了西北太平洋的热带气旋路径。进一步,参数和非参数假设检验结果表明模拟结果是合理的,可以作为风险评估的数据来源。在此基础上,本研究模拟出620年的台风路径,给出了以地级市为基础的重现期估计和风险图绘制方法。研究发现,模拟数据克服了历史数据的时空局限性,与历史数据相比较,基于模拟数据估计的重现水平更具准确性和稳定性;其次,采用模拟方法还可以绘制出历史数据无法实现的大比例风险图,很大程度上提高了风险评估的实用性.研究结果可以作为保险行业开展巨灾保险业务,政府部门制定防灾减灾规划的科学依据.     

Influences of aerodynamic loads on hunting stability of high-speed railway vehicles and parameter studies

The influences of steady aerodynamic loads on hunting stability of high-speed railway vehicles were investigated in this study.A mechanism is suggested to explain the change of hunting behavior due to actions of aerodynamic loads：the aerodynamic loads can change the position of vehicle system（consequently the contact relations）,the wheel/rail normal contact forces,the gravitational restoring forces/moments and the creep forces/moments.A mathematical model for hunting stability incorporating such influences was developed.A computer program capable of incorporating the effects of aerodynamic loads based on the model was written,and the critical speeds were calculated using this program.The dependences of linear and nonlinear critical speeds on suspension parameters considering aerodynamic loads were analyzed by using the orthogonal test method,the results were also compared with the situations without aerodynamic loads.It is shown that the most dominant factors a ff ecting linear and nonlinear critical speeds are different whether the aerodynamic loads considered or not.The damping of yaw damper is the most dominant influencing factor for linear critical speeds,while the damping of lateral damper is most dominant for nonlinear ones.When the influences of aerodynamic loads are considered,the linear critical speeds decrease with the rise of cross wind velocity,whereas it is not the case for the nonlinear critical speeds.The variation trends of critical speeds with suspension parameters can be significantly changed by aerodynamic loads.Combined actions of aerodynamic loads and suspension parameters also a ff ect the critical speeds.The effects of such joint action are more obvious for nonlinear critical speeds.     

踝关节外侧韧带模糊随机损伤数学模型研究

踝关节是人体重要的负重关节,踝关节外侧韧带损伤是常见的运动损伤之一,严重影响人们日常生活质量,早期预防具有重要意义.踝关节外侧韧带损伤的概念和存在的描述是不确定的,这种不确定性一表现在损伤概念与定义中被忽略的模糊性,二表现在描述损伤存在与发生时被忽略的随机性.分析了损伤变量的模糊性和随机性二者在[0,1]区间上的一致性,基于损伤变量的广义非确定性提出了模糊随机损伤模型.     

Fatigue damage behavior of a surface-mount electronic package under different cyclic applied loads

This paper studies and compares the effects of pull-pull and 3-point bending cyclic loadings on the mechanical fa- tigue damage behaviors of a solder joint in a surface-mount electronic package. The comparisons are based on experimental investigations using scanning electron microscopy （SEM） in-situ technology and nonlinear finite element modeling, respec- tively. The compared results indicate that there are different threshold levels of plastic strain for the initial damage of solder joints under two cyclic applied loads; meanwhile, fatigue crack initiation occurs at different locations, and the accumulation of equivalent plastic strain determines the trend and direction of fatigue crack propagation. In addition, simulation results of the fatigue damage process of solder joints considering a constitutive model of damage initiation criteria for ductile materials and damage evolution based on accumulating inelastic hysteresis energy are identical to the experimental results. The actual fatigue life of the solder joint is almost the same and demonstrates that the FE modeling used in this study can provide an accurate prediction of solder joint fatigue failure.     

爆炸荷载下沉箱重力式码头模型毁伤效应

在野外条件下开展了不同爆炸荷载条件下沉箱重力式码头模型毁伤效应实验，得到了沉箱重力式码头模型在1 kg TNT当量空中爆炸、水下爆炸以及结构内部爆炸后的毁伤模式，并针对不同毁伤模式给出了相应的抢修建议。实验结果表明:空中爆炸荷载下码头仅面板局部破坏形成爆坑；水下爆炸荷载下码头迎爆面及相近区域形成大量裂缝；结构内部爆炸荷载下码头仓格大变形破坏且中间面板被掀飞；从横向对比来看，在相同爆炸当量下空中爆炸荷载下码头毁伤程度最小，结构内部爆炸荷载下码头毁伤程度最大。     

室内环境下基于边际约束的快速路径自主探索算法

为了提高移动机器人在室内未知环境的自主探索能力,实现移动机器人在探索目标点之间的安全、快速移动,提出一种基于边际约束的快速路径自主探索算法。首先,将机器人自主探索问题描述为部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程模型。之后,在传统的快速扩展随机树(RRT)算法基础上,将随机树的生长空间划分为边际四象限空间,结合启发式评估函数的评价。该算法加快了移动机器人在探索目标点之间的移动速度,同时减少了随机树的节点,降低了对内存空间的占用。通过Matlab仿真实验,在实验设定的仿真环境中,该算法比传统RRT算法在时间上缩短约了75%,节点数量减少了约80%,并在机器人操作系统的仿真实验中验证了算法的实用性。     

基于Voronoi切割算法的碎冰区构造及离散元分析

离散元方法广泛应用于海冰，特别是碎冰区的动力过程及其对海洋结构作用过程的数值模拟。为构造碎冰区中的冰块几何特性，基于二维Voronoi图方法对计算域进行随机切割以生成碎冰区中冰块的几何形态，并采用球体单元对每个碎冰块单元进行填充，从而确定碎冰区的初始分布场。在采用Voronoi图进行碎冰区构造时，可对冰块尺寸、几何形态和密集度等海冰参数进行设定。为确定冰块的不同几何规则度，综合采用排斥法和扰动法以定量地控制碎冰块几何形态从完全随机分布到规则分布的连续变换。为分析不同几何规则度下碎冰块的几何特性概率分布规律，对计算域内冰块的面积和边数等参数进行统计分析，从而可更合理地参数化控制初始冰场中碎冰块的几何特性。在此基础上，本文基于粘接-破碎的球体离散元方法对不同冰况下锥体结构的冰荷载进行了数值计算，讨论分析了碎冰区的海冰密集度、冰块面积和几何规则度对冰载荷的影响。