Random marginal and random removal values

We propose two variations of the non-cooperative bargaining model for games in coalitional form, introduced by Hart and Mas-Colell (Econometrica 64:357–380, 1996a). These strategic games implement, in the limit, two new NTU-values: the random marginal and the random removal values. Their main characteristic is that they always select a unique payoff allocation in NTU-games. The random marginal value coincides with the Consistent NTU-value (Maschler and Owen in Int J Game Theory 18:389–407, 1989) for hyperplane games, and with the Shapley value for TU games (Shapley in In: Contributions to the theory of Games II. Princeton University Press, Princeton, pp 307–317, 1953). The random removal value coincides with the solidarity value (Nowak and Radzik in Int J Game Theory 23:43–48, 1994) in TU-games. In large games we show that, in the special class of market games, the random marginal value coincides with the Shapley NTU-value (Shapley in In: La Décision. Editions du CNRS, Paris, 1969), and that the random removal value coincides with the equal split value.      

全球成品油交易信息溢出研究——基于CCF检验和协整理论

使用基于协相关函数(CCF)的Hong统计量及其推广形式研究了全球成品油交易间的6种信息溢出效应,并对全球成品油市场主导品种与WTI间的信息溢出及协整关系进行了分析.成品油研究对象涵盖了新加坡、ARA和纽约3个全球成品油市场的汽油、燃料油和柴油,以及纽约市场的取暖油期现货.实证研究表明:柴油在新加坡和ARA市场内各品种间的信息溢出中占优势,而纽约市场则无特别显著的信息溢出占优产品.三个市场间的信息溢出研究表明:纽约成品油市场占主导地位,ARA次之.WTI原油与纽约4种成品油间关系的研究显示序列之间存在协整关系和非常迅速的信息传播.     

企业集团资本增值域的选择与优化

企业集团是资本的集合体，它在资本本质的推动下，不断寻求资本增值的最大化。但是我国企业集团由于受经济体制转换期的影响，以及自身经验的不足，未能正确定位集团的发展领域，从而未能实现资本的增值。文章根据我国企业集团当前存在的问题，结合项目实践中的体会，讨论了如何正确认识资本增值域，以及如何正确选择与优化资本增值域     

An Entropy-Based Approach to Measurement of Stock Market Depth

The aim of this study is to investigate market depth as a stock market liquidity dimension. A new methodology for market depth measurement exactly based on Shannon information entropy for high-frequency data is introduced and utilized. The proposed entropy-based market depth indicator is supported by an algorithm inferring the initiator of a trade. This new indicator seems to be a promising liquidity measure. Both market entropy and market liquidity can be directly measured by the new indicator. The findings of empirical experiments for real-data with a time stamp rounded to the nearest second from the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) confirm that the new proxy enables us to effectively compare market depth and liquidity for different equities. Robustness tests and statistical analyses are conducted. Furthermore, an intra-day seasonality assessment is provided. Results indicate that the entropy-based approach can be considered as an auspicious market depth and liquidity proxy with an intuitive base for both theoretical and empirical analyses in financial markets.     

Memory effect and multifractality of cross-correlations in financial markets

We introduce an instantaneous and an average instantaneous cross-correlation function to detect the temporal cross-correlations between individual stocks based on the daily data of the United States and the Chinese stock markets. The memory effect of the instantaneous cross-correlations is investigated by applying the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), where the DFA exponents can be partly explained by the correlation function from the common sense. Long-range memory is observed for the average instantaneous cross-correlations, and persists up to a month magnitude of timescale for the United States stock market and half a month magnitude of timescale for the Chinese stock market. In addition, multifractal nature is investigated by a multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis.     

Identifying the structure of group correlation in the Korean financial market

We investigate the structure of the cross-correlation in the Korean stock market. We analyze daily cross-correlations between price fluctuations of 586 different Korean stock entities for the 6-year time period from 2003 to 2008. The main purpose is to investigate the structure of group correlation and its stability by undressing the market-wide effect using the Markowitz multi-factor model and the network-based approach. We find the explicit list of significant firms in the few largest eigenvectors from the undressed correlation matrix. We also observe that each contributor is involved in the same business sectors. The structure of group correlation can not remain constant during each 1-year time period with different starting points, whereas only two largest eigenvectors are stable for 6 years 8-9 eigenvectors remain stable for half-year. The structure of group correlation in the Korean financial market is disturbed during a sufficiently short time period even though the group correlation exists as an ensemble for the 6-year time period in the evolution of the system. We verify the structure of group correlation by applying a network-based approach. In addition, we examine relations between market capitalization and businesses. The Korean stock market shows a different behavior compared to mature markets, implying that the KOSPI is a target for short-positioned investors.     

Flexible capacity strategy with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraint

We establish a flexible capacity strategy model with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraints. In the model, a firm makes its capacity decision under a financial budget constraint at the beginning of the planning horizon which embraces n market periods. In each market period, the firm goes through three decision-making stages: the safety production stage, the additional production stage and the optimal sales stage. We formulate the problem and obtain the optimal capacity, the optimal safety production, the optimal additional production and the optimal sales of each market period under different situations. We find that there are two thresholds for the unit capacity cost. When the capacity cost is very low, the optimal capacity is determined by its financial budget; when the capacity cost is very high, the firm keeps its optimal capacity at its safety production level; and when the cost is in between of the two thresholds, the optimal capacity is determined by the capacity cost, the number of market periods and the unit cost of additional production. Further, we explore the endogenous safety production level. We verify the conditions under which the firm has different optimal safety production levels. Finally, we prove that the firm can benefit from the investment only when the designed planning horizon is longer than a threshold. Moreover, we also derive the formulae for the above three thresholds.     

More than a second channel? Supply chain strategies in B2B spot markets

The emergence of B2B spot markets has greatly facilitated spot trading and impacted supply chain structures as well as the way commercial transactions take place between firms in many industries. While providing new opportunities, the B2B spot market also exposes participants to a price risk. This new business landscape raises some important questions on how the supplier and manufacturer should change their sales channel and procurement strategies and tailor their decisions to this changing environment. In this paper, we study the channel-choice, pricing and ordering/production decisions of the risk-averse supplier and manufacturer in a two-tier supply chain with a B2B spot market. Our analysis shows that, to benefit from the B2B spot market and control the risk exposure, the upstream supplier should develop an integrated channel-choice and pricing strategy. When the supplier adopts a dual-channel strategy, the equilibrium contract price decreases in the supplier’s risk attitude, but increases in the demand uncertainty. However, it first decreases and then increases in the manufacturer’s risk attitude and spot price volatility. We conclude that rather than simply being a second channel, the B2B spot market provides a strategic tool to supply chain members to achieve an advantageous position in their contract trading.     

Sequential smoothing for turning point detection with application to financial decisions

A fundamental problem in financial trading is the correct and timely identification of turning points in stock value series. This detection enables to perform profitable investment decisions, such as buying‐at‐low and selling‐at‐high. This paper evaluates the ability of sequential smoothing methods to detect turning points in financial time series. The novel idea is to select smoothing and alarm coefficients on the gain performance of the trading strategy. Application to real data shows that recursive smoothers outperform two‐sided filters at the out‐of‐sample level. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Goal achieving probabilities of cone‐constrained mean‐variance portfolios

In this paper, we establish closed‐form formulas for key probabilistic properties of the cone‐constrained optimal mean‐variance strategy, in a continuous market model driven by a multidimensional Brownian motion and deterministic coefficients. In particular, we compute the probability to obtain to a point, during the investment horizon, where the accumulated wealth is large enough to be fully reinvested in the money market, and safely grow there to meet the investor's financial goal at terminal time. We conclude that the result of Li and Zhou [Ann. Appl. Prob., v.16, pp.1751–1763, (2006)] in the unconstrained case carries over when conic constraints are present: the former probability is lower bounded by 80% no matter the market coefficients, trading constraints, and investment goal. We also compute the expected terminal wealth given that the investor's goal is underachieved, for both the mean‐variance strategy and the aforementioned hybrid strategy where transfer to the money market occurs if it allows to safely achieve the goal. The former probabilities and expectations are also provided in the case where all risky assets held are liquidated if financial distress is encountered. These results provide investors with novel practical tools to support portfolio decision‐making and analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.