气候对安徽中药材产业经济影响分析——基于经济气候模型

通过考虑气候和经济社会因素,将气候因素与函数综合考虑并进行分析,构建“经济气候”模型,分析并得出气候因素对安徽省中药材产业影响程度,利用所构建BP神经网络模型,分析数据,对气象因素对中药材产业的影响结果进行预测。通过分析安徽省气候变化的特点与方向,确定气候因素对中药材产业的影响程度,为中药材产业发展提供一定的数据分析支撑,为有针对性的管理中药材产业提供方法与数据基础,同时对降低严重气象灾害对中药材生产带来的负面作用具有一定的理论与实践意义。     

Bayesian sequential reliability for Weibull and related distributions

Assume that the probability density function for the lifetime of a newly designed product has the form: [H(t)/Q()] exp{–H(t)/Q()}. The Exponential(), Rayleigh, WeibullW(, ) and Pareto pdf's are special cases.Q() will be assumed to have an inverse Gamma prior. Assume thatm independent products are to be tested with replacement. A Bayesian Sequential Reliability Demonstration Testing plan is used to eigher accept the product and start formal production, or reject the product for reengineering. The test criterion is the intersection of two goals, a minimal goal to begin production and a mature product goal. The exact values of various risks and the distribution of total number of failures are evaluated. Based on a result about a Poisson process, the expected stopping time for the exponential failure time is also found. Included in these risks and expected stopping times are frequentist versions, thereof, so that the results also provide frequentist answers for a class of interesting stopping rules.This research was supported by NSF grants DMS-8703620 and DMS-8923071, and forms part of the Ph.D. Thesis of the first author, the development of which was supported in part by a David Ross grant at Purdue University. The authors thank the editors and a referee for insightful comments and suggestions.     

Bahadur efficiency and robustness of studentized score tests

We derive the exact Bahadur slopes of studentized score tests for a simple null hypothesis in a one-parameter family of distributions. The Student's t-test is included as a special case for which a recent result of Rukhin (1993, Sankhy Ser. A, 55, 159–163) was improved upon. It is shown that locally optimal Bahadur efficiency for one-sample location models with a known or estimated scale parameter is attained within the class of studentized score tests. The studentized test has an asymptotic null distribution free of the scale parameter, and the optimality of likelihood scores does not depend on the existence of a moment generating function. We also consider the influence function and breakdown point of such tests as part of our robustness investigation. The influence of any studentized score test is bounded from above, indicating certain degree of robustness of validity, but a bounded score function is needed to cap the influence from below and to ensure a high power breakdown point. We find that the standard Huber-type score tests are not only locally minimax in Bahadur efficiency, but also very competitive in global efficiency at a variety of location models.     

Whitehead test modules

A (right -) module is said to be a Whitehead test module for projectivity (shortly: a p-test module) provided for each module , implies is projective. Dually, i-test modules are defined. For example, is a p-test abelian group iff each Whitehead group is free. Our first main result says that if is a right hereditary non-right perfect ring, then the existence of p-test modules is independent of ZFC + GCH. On the other hand, for any ring , there is a proper class of i-test modules. Dually, there is a proper class of p-test modules over any right perfect ring.

A non-semisimple ring is said to be fully saturated (-saturated) provided that all non-projective (-generated non-projective) modules are i-test. We show that classification of saturated rings can be reduced to the indecomposable ones. Indecomposable 1-saturated rings fall into two classes: type I, where all simple modules are isomorphic, and type II, the others. Our second main result gives a complete characterization of rings of type II as certain generalized upper triangular matrix rings, . The four parameters involved here are skew-fields and , and natural numbers . For rings of type I, we have several partial results: e.g. using a generalization of Bongartz Lemma, we show that it is consistent that each fully saturated ring of type I is a full matrix ring over a local quasi-Frobenius ring. In several recent papers, our results have been applied to Tilting Theory and to the Theory of -modules.

     

Wiener's test for space-time random walks and its applications

This paper establishes a criterion for whether a -dimensional random walk on the integer lattice visits a space-time subset infinitely often or not. It is a precise analogue of Wiener's test for regularity of a boundary point with respect to the classical Dirichlet problem. The test obtained is applied to strengthen the harder half of Kolmogorov's test for the random walk.

     

A predictive model for impact response of viscoelastic polymers in drop tests

We show for the first time that a classical Hookean viscoelastic constitutive law for rubbery materials can predict the impact forces and deflections measured with a commercial drop tester when a mass, or tup with a flat impacting surface is dropped onto a flat pad of commercial impact-absorbing rubber. The viscoelastic properties of the rubber, namely the relaxation times and strengths, are obtained by a standard rheological linear-oscillatory test, and the equation of momentum transfer is then solved, using these measured parameters, assuming a uniaxial deflection of the pad during the impact. Good agreement between measured and predicted forces and deflections is obtained for a series of various drop heights, tup masses, impact areas, and pad thicknesses, as long as the deflection of the pad relative to its thickness is small or modest (<50% or so), and as long as the area of the pad is less than or equal to that of the tup. When the pad area is greater than the tup, forces are higher than predicted, unless an empirical factor is introduced to account for the nonuniaxial stretching of the ring of material that extends outside of the impact area. These results imply that the impact-absorbing properties of a rubbery polymeric material can be assessed by simply examining the material's linear viscoelastic spectrum.     

Estimation of Multinomial Probabilities under a Model Constraint

In this paper estimation of the probabilities of a multinomial distribution has been studied. The five estimators considered are: unrestricted estimator (UE), restricted estimator (RE) (under model ), preliminary test estimator (PTE) based on a test of the model , shrinkage estimator (SE) and the positive-rule shrinkage estimator (PRSE). Asymptotic distributions of these estimators are given under Pitman alternatives and the asymptotic risk under a quadratic loss has been evaluated. The relative performance of the five estimators is then studied with respect to their asymptotic distributional risks (ADR). It is seen that neither of the preliminary test and shrinkage estimators dominates the other, though each fares well relative to the other estimators. However, the positive rule estimator is recommended for use for dimension 3 or more while the PTE is recommended for dimension less than 3.     

Synthesis of Diethyl Oxalate by a Coupling-Regeneration Reaction of Carbon Monoxide

This article describes a process for the synthesis of diethyl oxalate by a coupling reaction of carbon monoxide, catalyzed by palladium in the presence of ethyl nitrite. The kinetics and mechanism of the coupling and regeneration reaction are also discussed. This paper presents the results of a scale-up test of the catalyst and the process based on an a priori computer simulation.     

Spectrophotometric flow-injection determination of zinc in plant digests based on a spot test

A spot test was implemented in a flow-injection system for the spectrophotometric determination of zinc in digests of plant materials. It is based on the influence of Zn²⁺ on the oxidation rate of 1-naphthylethylenediamine (NED) by hexacyanoferrate(III) under acidic conditions. In order to control the precipitate formation and to maintain the resulting suspension, a micellar medium was established by adding Triton X-100. The proposed system handles about 65 samples per hour, meaning 72 μg NED and 9.0 mg K₃[Fe(CN)₆] per determination. Baseline drift is usually <0.01 absorbance per hour and the analytical signals for 0.5-2.5 mg l⁻¹ Zn range within ca. 0.07-0.45 absorbance. Linearity of the analytical curve is fair (r>0.999, n=6) and detection limit was estimated as 0.2 mg l⁻¹ Zn. Results are precise (R.S.D.<1%, n=10) and in agreement with flame atomic absorption spectrometry and with certified values of standard reference materials.     

Inhibition of Metalloproteinase Activity by Chinese Formulations Used to Treat Inflammatory Diseases

Introduction Matrixmetalloproteinases(MMPs)areaclassof zinc requiringextracellularendopeptidasesthatcanto getherdegradeallcomponentsoftheextracellularma trixandbasementmembranes[1—3].Theyplayimpor tantrolesinconnectivetissueremodeling,occurringin normalb…