Sharper asset ranking from total drawdown durations

The total duration of drawdowns is shown to provide a moment-free, unbiased, efficient and robust estimator of Sharpe ratios both for Gaussian and heavy-tailed price returns. We then use this quantity to infer an analytic expression of the bias of moment-based Sharpe ratio estimators as a function of the return distribution tail exponent. The heterogeneity of tail exponents at any given time among assets implies that our new method yields significantly different asset rankings than those of moment-based methods, especially in periods large volatility. This is fully confirmed by using 20 years of historical data on 3449 liquid US equities.     

Some closed form robust moment‐based estimators for the MEM(1,1)

In this paper, we extend the closed form moment estimator (ordinary MCFE) for the autoregressive conditional duration model given by Lu et al (2016) and propose some closed form robust moment‐based estimators for the multiplicative error model to deal with the additive and innovational outliers. The robustification of the closed form estimator is done by replacing the sample mean and sample autocorrelation with some robust estimators. These estimators are more robust than the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) often used to estimate this model, and they are easy to implement and do not require the use of any numerical optimization procedure and the choice of initial value. The performance of our proposal in estimating the parameters and forecasting conditional mean μ_t of the MEM(1,1) process is compared with the proposals existing in the literature via Monte Carlo experiments, and the results of these experiments show that our proposal outperforms the ordinary MCFE, QMLE, and least absolute deviation estimator in the presence of outliers in general. Finally, we fit the price durations of IBM stock with the robust closed form estimators and the benchmarks and analyze their performances in estimating model parameters and forecasting the irregularly spaced intraday Value at Risk.     

A posteriori error estimation for the Stokes–Darcy coupled problem on anisotropic discretization

This paper presents an a posteriori error analysis for the stationary Stokes–Darcy coupled problem approximated by finite element methods on anisotropic meshes in or 3. Korn's inequality for piecewise linear vector fields on anisotropic meshes is established and is applied to non‐conforming finite element method. Then the existence and uniqueness of the approximation solution are deduced for non‐conforming case. With the obtained finite element solutions, the error estimators are constructed and based on the residual of model equations plus the stabilization terms. The lower error bound is proved by means of bubble functions and the corresponding anisotropic inverse inequalities. In order to prove the upper error bound, it is vital that an anisotropic mesh corresponds to the anisotropic function under consideration. To measure this correspondence, a so‐called matching function is defined, and its discussion shows it to be useful tool. With its help, the upper error bound is shown by means of the corresponding anisotropic interpolation estimates and a special Helmholtz decomposition in both media. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surface tensor estimation from linear sections

From Crofton's formula for Minkowski tensors we derive stereological estimators of translation invariant surface tensors of convex bodies in the n‐dimensional Euclidean space. The estimators are based on one‐dimensional linear sections. In a design based setting we suggest three types of estimators. These are based on isotropic uniform random lines, vertical sections, and non‐isotropic random lines, respectively. Further, we derive estimators of the specific surface tensors associated with a stationary process of convex particles in the model based setting.     

Tests for normality based on density estimators of convolutions

Recent results show that densities of convolutions can be estimated by local U-statistics at the root-n rate in various norms. Motivated by this and the fact that convolutions of normal densities are normal, we introduce new tests for normality which use as test statistics weighted L₁-distances between the standard normal density and local U-statistics based on standardized observations. We show that such test statistics converge at the root-n rate and determine their limit distributions as functionals of Gaussian processes. We also address a choice of bandwidth. Simulations show that our tests are competitive with other tests of normality.     

Exact maximum likelihood estimator for drift fractional Brownian motion at discrete observation

This paper deals with the problems of consistency and strong consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators of the mean and variance of the drift fractional Brownian motions observed at discrete time instants. Both the central limit theorem and the Berry-Ess′een bounds for these estimators are obtained by using the Stein’s method via Malliavin calculus.     

基于相依函数型数据非参数回归函数的稳健核估计

本文研究了基于相依函数型数据非参数回归函数的核估计.利用稳健的方法,在一定条件下获得了与i.i.d.场合下类似的估计量的几乎完全收敛速度,推广了现有文献中的相关结论.     

拟似然非线性模型中MQLE的弱相合性的充分条件

拟似然非线性模型包括广义线性模型作为一个特殊情形.给出了拟似然非线性模型中极大拟似然估计的弱相合性的一些充分条件,其中矩的条件要弱于文献中极大拟似然估计的强相合性的条件.     

对于金融资产漂移函数估计的双域组合方法(英文)

Time-domain state-domain methods are common approaches in modern financial analysis.Economic conditions vary time,drift function depends on time and price level for a given state variable.In this paper,to consistently estimate the bivariate drift function,our purpose a new dynamic integrated estimator by combing time-and state-domain methods for estimating drift function.And we establish its asymptotic properties and illustrates it outperforms some old ones by simulations.     

Variant of Greedy Randomized Gauss-Seidel Method for Ridge Regression

The variants of randomized Kaczmarz and randomized Gauss-Seidel algorithms are two effective stochastic iterative methods for solving ridge regression problems. For solving ordinary least squares regression problems, the greedy randomized Gauss-Seidel (GRGS) algorithm always performs better than the randomized Gauss-Seidel algorithm (RGS) when the system is overdetermined. In this paper, inspired by the greedy modification technique of the GRGS algorithm, we extend the variant of the randomized Gauss-Seidel algorithm, obtaining a variant of greedy randomized Gauss-Seidel (VGRGS) algorithm for solving ridge regression problems. In addition, we propose a relaxed VGRGS algorithm and the corresponding convergence theorem is established. Numerical experiments show that our algorithms outperform the VRK-type and the VRGS algorithms when $m > n$.