有向图上的随机游动

设G=(V,Г)是有向图,G上的随机游动X(G)定义如下:位于某个顶点上的一个粒子将以等概率转移到该顶点的所有后继顶点.令M(j,n)表示随机游动X(G)在前n步内访问顶点j的平均次数,用W(j)表示随机游动X(G)到达顶点j所需要的平均步效.我们对M(j,n)和W(j)的值进行了估计,证明了M(j,n)=O(n),并给出了W(j)的上界.     

Influence of relaxation effects on probabilities of the 2s2p35S2－2s22p2 3P1，2 intercombination transitions in NII

Transition probabilities of the 2s2p^3 {}^5S_2－2s^22p^2 {}^3P_{1,2} intercombination transitions in NII have been calculated by using a large-scale multiconfiguration Dirac－Fock method. In the calculation the most important effects of relativity, correlation, and relaxation are considered. From the calculated transition probabilities, the lifetime of the 2s2p^3 {}^5S_2 metastable state is derived. The result is in excellent agreement with the latest experimental result. In the meantime the influence of anomalously strong relaxation effects on probabilities of the 2s2p^3 {}^5S_2－2s^22p^2 {}^3P_{1,2} lines in NII have been found.     

Optimal volume-corrected laplace-metropolis method

The article provides a refinement for the volume-corrected Laplace-Metropolis estimator of the marginal likelihood of DiCiccioet al. The correction volume of probability α in DiCiccioet al. is fixed and suggested to take the value α=0.05. In this article α is selected based on an asymptotic analysis to minimize the mean square relative error (MSRE). This optimal choice of α is shown to be invariant under linear transformations. The invariance property leads to easy implementation for multivariate problems. An implementation procedure is provided for practical use. A simulation study and a real data example are presented.     

保险公司离散型崩溃模型研究

本文提出并讨论了含投资因素、红利分配因素的崩溃模型，得出了关于崩溃概率、保险公司的期望寿命的结论，这些结论推广了没有考虑投资因素的崩溃模型的相关结论．     

Simple Constructions of Almost k-wise Independent Random Variables

We present three alternative simple constructions of small probability spaces on n bits for which any k bits are almost independent. The number of bits used to specify a point in the sample space is (2 + o(1)) (log log n + k/2 + log k + log 1/?), where ? is the statistical difference between the distribution induced on any k bit locations and the uniform distribution. This is asymptotically comparable to the construction recently presented by Naor and Naor (our size bound is better as long as ? < 1/(k log n)). An additional advantage of our constructions is their simplicity.     

尾年金分布的存在性和结构

本文主要是在年金分布的基础上, 推广、定义并研究了一类$r$尾年金分布的存在性和结构, 给出了这类分布的存在性条件, 证明了在一定条件下, $r$尾年金分布是年金分布与某一特殊$r$尾年金分布的混合.     

价格与隐含远期违约概率

如同根据布莱克-斯科尔斯模型从欧式看涨期权市场价格中反求隐含波动率一样,从信用违约互换的价格中提取隐含违约概率在理论上和实践上都存在很多困难.传统的自助法存在很大的缺点,并有可能得出不符合现实的结果.本文采用基于一段时期的条件违约概率的新的优化方法来替代基于自助法的瞬时远期违约概率,该方法有很多优良特性,会得出比传统方法好得多的结论.     

On classical analogues of free entropy dimension

We define a classical probability analogue of Voiculescu's free entropy dimension that we shall call the classical probability entropy dimension of a probability measure on Rn. We show that the classical probability entropy dimension of a measure is related with diverse other notions of dimension. First, it can be viewed as a kind of fractal dimension. Second, if one extends Bochner's inequalities to a measure by requiring that microstates around this measure asymptotically satisfy the classical Bochner's inequalities, then we show that the classical probability entropy dimension controls the rate of increase of optimal constants in Bochner's inequality for a measure regularized by convolution with the Gaussian law as the regularization is removed. We introduce a free analogue of the Bochner inequality and study the related free entropy dimension quantity. We show that it is greater or equal to the non-microstates free entropy dimension.     

Discrete-time GI/Geo/1 queue with multiple working vacations

Consider the discrete time GI/Geo/1 queue with working vacations under EAS and LAS schemes. The server takes the original work at the lower rate rather than completely stopping during the vacation period. Using the matrix-geometric solution method, we obtain the steady-state distribution of the number of customers in the system and present the stochastic decomposition property of the queue length. Furthermore, we find and verify the closed property of conditional probability for negative binomial distributions. Using such property, we obtain the specific expression for the steady-state distribution of the waiting time and explain its two conditional stochastic decomposition structures. Finally, two special models are presented.      

Algorithmic analysis of theMAP/PH/1 retrial queue

In this paper the distribution of the maximum number of customers in a retrial orbit for a single server queue with Markovian arrival process and phase type services is studied. Efficient algorithm for computing the probability distribution and some interesting numerical examples are presented.