预倒出口箱区的多场桥调度优化

在集装箱出口箱区堆场的实际作业中,常将待提箱提前翻倒至一空闲箱区,使其装船前以船舶配载图的倒序堆垛,以提高装船效率。为提高初始出口箱区的预翻作业效率,针对该箱区的多场桥调度优化问题进行研究。以实施预翻作业的某一出口箱区为研究对象,在船舶配载图已知的前提下,考虑作业场桥间保持安全距离且不可跨越的条件,兼顾满足经验翻箱规则等现实约束,侧重作业过程中实时翻箱,构建了以场桥作业总行走时间最小为优化目标的线性规划模型,并设计了分支定价算法。在算例实验中,通过与非实时预翻箱方案、FCFS方案以及下界进行对比,验证了模型及算法的有效性,可为集装箱码头出口箱堆场的场桥调度提供参考。     

Deep learning for energy markets

Deep Learning (DL) is combined with extreme value theory (EVT) to predict peak loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose a deep temporal extreme value model to capture these effects, which predicts the tail behavior of load spikes. Deep long‐short‐term memory architectures with rectified linear unit activation functions capture trends and temporal dependencies, while EVT captures highly volatile load spikes above a prespecified threshold. To illustrate our methodology, we develop forecasting models for hourly price and demand from the PJM interconnection. The goal is to show that DL‐EVT outperforms traditional methods, both in‐ and out‐of‐sample, by capturing the observed nonlinearities in prices and demand spikes. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.     

Correlated intensity, counter party risks, and dependent mortalities

In this paper we use an intensity-based framework to analyze and compute the correlated default probabilities, both in finance and actuarial sciences, following the idea of “change of measure” initiated by Collin-Dufresne et al. (2004). Our method is based on a representation theorem for joint survival probability among an arbitrary number of defaults, which works particularly effectively for certain types of correlated default models, including the counter-party risk models of Jarrow and Yu (2001) and related problems such as the phenomenon of “flight to quality”. The results are also useful in studying the recently observed dependent mortality for married couples involving spousal bereavement. In particular we study in details a problem of pricing Universal Variable Life (UVL) insurance products. The explicit formulae for the joint-life status and last-survivor status (or equivalently, the probability distribution of first-to-default and last-to-default in a multi-firm setting) enable us to derive the explicit solution to the indifference pricing formula without using any advanced results in partial differential equations.     

The optimal reinsurance strategy — the individual claim case

This paper is concerned with the optimal form of reinsurance when the cedent seeks to maximize the adjustment coefficient of the retained risk (related to the probability of ultimate ruin)-which we prove to be equivalent to maximizing the expected utility of wealth, with respect to an exponential utility with a certain coefficient of risk aversion-and restricts the reinsurance strategies to functions of the individual claims, which is the case for most nonproportional treaties placed in the market.Assuming that the premium calculation principle is a convex functional we prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions and provide a necessary optimality condition (via needle-like perturbations, widely known in optimal control). These results are used to find the optimal reinsurance policy when the reinsurance loading is increasing with the variance. The optimal contract is described by a nonlinear function, of a similar form than in the aggregate case.     

Option pricing with regime switching by trinomial tree method

We present a fast and simple tree model to price simple and exotic options in Markov Regime Switching Model (MRSM) with multi-regime. We modify the trinomial tree model of Boyle (1986) [12] by controlling the risk neutral probability measure in different regime states to ensure that the tree model can accommodate the data of all different regimes at the same time preserving its combining tree structure. In MRSM, the market might not be complete, therefore we provide some ideas and discussions on managing the regime switching risk in support of our results.     

移动众包平台的任务酬金定价模型及调控策略研究——以珠三角地区为例

以珠三角地区移动众包平台为研究对象,实证分析了移动众包平台中的任务酬金定价模型和调控策略问题.首先使用GIS软件将移动众包平台中的用户和任务点的位置信息投射到真实地图,定性分析了影响任务点定价模型的交通、商圈等因素.然后建立以任务完成率最大和任务发布者收益最大的多目标任务酬金定价模型,使用熵权法确定模型中交通、商圈等因素的权值.最后借助贪心算法对上述模型进行求解,在分析部分任务未完成原因的基础上,提出了一种基于缓冲区打包的定价调控策略,通过实验分析,这种方法有助于提高任务的完成率和增加任务发布方的收益.     

供应中断下零售商的最优定价和最优分批订购策略

考虑了由两个可靠性不同的供应商,一个零售商和一个竞争零售商组成的供应链系统,研究了以双垄断市场为背景,在供应中断条件下,建立了零售商的最优定价模型,给出了最优销售价格和分批订购策略.最后通过数值算例就零售商和竞争零售商价格对竞争零售商的采购成本在不中断和中断情形下做了比较.     

面向网络外部性特征产品的供应链动态竞争策略研究

当产品具有网络外部性的特征时,该产品的规模收益特征对利润、产品价格和需求等因素都会产生重大影响。首先,通过将网络规模建立为网络成本投入的微分方程,分别构建了分散与集中式决策下的动态供应链模型。其次,以供应链的利润最大化为前提,利用微分博弈导出生产量、批发价、零售价和投入努力值的最优策略。结论表明:在生命周期的前部分,集中决策情形的供应链系统利润和产品价格低于分散决策情形,但越往后,其价格和利润都将逐步超过分散决策情形,且差距越来越大。     

基于混合规避策略的期权定价及其数值分析

考虑现实市场中红利的存在、波动率等参数随时间变化以及交易时间不连续产生的对冲风险不可忽略,研究离散时间、支付红利条件下基于混合规避策略的期权定价模型.由平均自融资-极小方差规避策略得到相应欧式看涨期权定价方程,并且分别使用偏微分方法和概率论方法得到统一的闭形解.数值分析表明,与经典的期权定价模型相比,新模型中的期权价格更接近对冲成本.     

最优比例与超额损失组合再保险下的破产概率

本文站在保险人的立场上,讨论了保险公司的最优组合再保险问题.通过纯粹比例再保险,纯粹超额损失再保险,或者这两类再保险的组合方式,把保险公司的部分风险分担出去.在最大化调节系数的最优准则下,我们得出了布朗运动模型和复合Poisson模型中最优值的显示表达,并且给出了复合Poisson模型中最优策略下破产概率的最小指数上界.我们还得出结论:在一定的条件下,总存在一种纯粹超额损失再保险策略比任何一类组合再保险策略都要好.最后,通过一些数例和图表来进一步说明我们在文中所获得的结论.