Hierarchical cluster-tendency analysis of the group structure in the foreign exchange market

A hierarchical cluster-tendency (HCT) method in analyzing the group structure of networks of the global foreign exchange (FX) market is proposed by combining the advantages of both the minimal spanning tree (MST) and the hierarchical tree (HT). Fifty currencies of the top 50 World GDP in 2010 according to World Bank’s database are chosen as the underlying system. By using the HCT method, all nodes in the FX market network can be “colored” and distinguished. We reveal that the FX networks can be divided into two groups, i.e., the Asia-Pacific group and the Pan-European group. The results given by the hierarchical cluster-tendency method agree well with the formerly observed geographical aggregation behavior in the FX market. Moreover, an oil-resource aggregation phenomenon is discovered by using our method. We find that gold could be a better numeraire for the weekly-frequency FX data.     

需求风险下套期保值与市场进入分析

需求风险是企业面临的主要风险之一,对企业的生产经营和管理决策具有重要影响。本文考虑由多个风险厌恶企业构成的产品竞争市场,分析了需求风险下企业参与套期保值和市场进入的决策问题。文章首先通过Cournot博弈分析了套期保值对于规避需求风险的作用和意义;然后,探讨了企业参与套期保值和市场进入的决策过程,并给出了三种情形下的市场均衡结构;最后,通过数值实验对结论进行了验证。研究表明:套期保值提高了企业应对需求风险的能力,使企业获得更高的产量和收益;参与套期保值企业数量随着进入市场企业数量的增加而减少;当市场竞争程度或市场费用增加时,将会有更多的企业选择参与套期保值,而选择进入市场的企业会减少。     

不同推介模式下网络零售商广告策略研究

研究了不同推介模式下网络零售商的广告策略问题,通过Nash静态博弈方法求解无推介、单向推介以及双向推介三种模式下零售商均衡零售价格、广告努力水平及利润。研究发现:无推介情况下,两零售商均衡广告策略为同时投入广告。单向推介情况下,若利润分享比例较小,则两零售商同时投入广告;若利润分享比例较大,则随着广告成本系数的增大,两零售商均衡广告策略从仅有被推介零售商投入广告转变为同时投入广告。双向推介情况下,若广告成本系数较小,则两家零售商都不投入广告;若广告成本系数较大,则两家零售商同时投入广告。此外,还分析了零售商均衡广告策略下的推介动力问题。     

期货市场中持仓量及参与者对资产价格的影响研究

本文通过建立一个期货市场的均衡模型,提出在具有套保需求和有限风险承受能力的前提下,期货价格能够预测未来资产价格变动的方向,持仓量能够辅助预测未来资产价格变动的剧烈程度;此外,市场中不知情投机者具有风险调整市场收益的作用,不知情套保者的参与能够稳定市场。对于持仓量是否能够辅助预测未来资产价格变动的剧烈程度,本文利用中国商品期货市场数据进行了实证检验,结果表明与理论研究的结论一致。     

市场机制和政府调控下产学研联盟稳定性研究

为了促进产学研联盟的稳定发展,针对我国产学研联盟短期化行为严重问题,基于演化博弈理论从市场机制和政府调控两方面构建企业和学研机构联盟行为选择的决策模型,以及通过复制动态方程对策略选择进行稳定性分析,同时运用Matlab 7.0软件模拟仿真在不同程度的市场机制和政府调控下企业和学研机构在联盟创新中的演化行为。通过市场机制和政府调控两方面的深入剖析,对我国产学研联盟的稳定发展具有重要的理论指导意义。     

Analysis of the effects of the global financial crisis on the Turkish economy, using hierarchical methods

We have analyzed the topology of 50 important Turkish companies for the period 2006-2010 using the concept of hierarchical methods (the minimal spanning tree (MST) and hierarchical tree (HT)). We investigated the statistical reliability of links between companies in the MST by using the bootstrap technique. We also used the average linkage cluster analysis (ALCA) technique to observe the cluster structures much better. The MST and HT are known as useful tools to perceive and detect global structure, taxonomy, and hierarchy in financial data. We obtained four clusters of companies according to their proximity. We also observed that the Banks and Holdings cluster always forms in the centre of the MSTs for the periods 2006-2007, 2008, and 2009-2010. The clusters match nicely with their common production activities or their strong interrelationship. The effects of the Automobile sector increased after the global financial crisis due to the temporary incentives provided by the Turkish government. We find that Turkish companies were not very affected by the global financial crisis.     

Dynamics of bid–ask spread return and volatility of the Chinese stock market

The bid–ask spread is taken as an important measure of the financial market liquidity. In this article, we study the dynamics of the spread return and the spread volatility of four liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market, including the memory effect and the multifractal nature. By investigating the autocorrelation function and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), we find that the spread return is the lack of long-range memory, while the spread volatility is long-range time correlated. Besides, the spread volatilities of different stocks present long-range cross-correlations. Moreover, by applying the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA), the spread return is observed to possess a strong multifractality, which is similar to the dynamics of a variety of financial quantities. Different from the spread return, the spread volatility exhibits a weak multifractal nature.     

Testing for persistent deviations of stock prices to dividends in the Nasdaq index

In this paper we test for the presence of bubbles in the Nasdaq stock market index over the period 1994–2003 applying fractional integration techniques and allowing for structural breaks and non-linear adjustments of prices to dividends. The results show a significant structural break in 1998 for all model specifications and data periodicity. Furthermore, we do not find evidence of asymmetric adjustment of prices to dividends when using M-TAR and TAR models. The evidence of bubbles varies depending on the data periodicity and model specification used in the analysis. Finally, the results show persistent deviations of stock prices to dividends in all cases considered, though we only find evidence of bubbles in the Nasdaq index when using weekly data for the time period after June 1998.     

An intermediate distribution between Gaussian and Cauchy distributions

In this paper, we construct an intermediate distribution linking the Gaussian and the Cauchy distribution. We provide the probability density function and the corresponding characteristic function of the intermediate distribution. Because many kinds of distributions have no moment, we introduce weighted moments. Specifically, we consider weighted moments under two types of weighted functions: the cut-off function and the exponential function. Through these two types of weighted functions, we can obtain weighted moments for almost all distributions. We consider an application of the probability density function of the intermediate distribution on the spectral line broadening in laser theory. Moreover, we utilize the intermediate distribution to the problem of the stock market return in quantitative finance.     

Gradient differences and bilateral barters

Exchange is modelled here as iterated bilateral barters, each fairly myopic and driven merely by gradient differences. Under weak conditions, repeated transactions carry the economy to market equilibrium, supported by clearing prices. A main feature is that agents, in the interim, are allowed non-admissible, possibly speculative, but sharply penalized positions.