Bayesian Inversion of Piecewise Affine Operators in a Gaussian Framework

Piecewise affine inverse problems form a general class of nonlinear inverse problems. In particular inverse problems obeying certain variational structures, such as Fermat's principle in travel time tomography, are of this type. In a piecewise affine inverse problem a parameter is to be reconstructed when its mapping through a piecewise affine operator is observed, possibly with errors. A piecewise affine operator is defined by partitioning the parameter space and assigning a specific affine operator to each part. A Bayesian approach with a Gaussian random field prior on the parameter space is used. Both problems with a discrete finite partition and a continuous partition of the parameter space are considered.

The main result is that the posterior distribution is decomposed into a mixture of truncated Gaussian distributions, and the expression for the mixing distribution is partially analytically tractable. The general framework has, to the authors' knowledge, not previously been published, although the result for the finite partition is generally known.

Inverse problems are currently of large interest in many fields. The Bayesian approach is popular and most often highly computer intensive. The posterior distribution is frequently concentrated close to high-dimensional nonlinear spaces, resulting in slow mixing for generic sampling algorithms. Inverse problems are, however, often highly structured. In order to develop efficient sampling algorithms for a problem at hand, the problem structure must be exploited.

The decomposition of the posterior distribution that is derived in the current work can be used to develop specialized sampling algorithms. The article contains examples of such sampling algorithms. The proposed algorithms are applicable also for problems with exact observations. This is a case for which generic sampling algorithms tend to fail.     

Mathematical analysis of an influenza epidemic model,formulation of different controlling strategies using optimal control and estimation of basic reproduction number

In this article, a deterministic model is formulated to perform a thorough investigation of the transmission dynamics of influenza. In particular, our model takes into account the effects of medication as well as hospitalization. An in-depth stability analysis of the model is performed, and it is subsequently shown that the model is locally, as well as globally asymptotically stable, when R₀ > 1. It is also shown that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium whenever R₀ > 1. After estimating the effective contact rate, we estimate the basic reproduction number, using both an ordinary least squares and generalized least squares methodology. We also estimated confidence intervals for the effective contact rate using parametric bootstrapping. Furthermore, we perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to recognize the impact of crucial model parameters on R₀. In addition, using ideas from the optimal control theory, optimal medication and hospitalization strategies are proposed to eliminate the disease.     

Geometric Variational Inference

Efficiently accessing the information contained in non-linear and high dimensional probability distributions remains a core challenge in modern statistics. Traditionally, estimators that go beyond point estimates are either categorized as Variational Inference (VI) or Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) techniques. While MCMC methods that utilize the geometric properties of continuous probability distributions to increase their efficiency have been proposed, VI methods rarely use the geometry. This work aims to fill this gap and proposes geometric Variational Inference (geoVI), a method based on Riemannian geometry and the Fisher information metric. It is used to construct a coordinate transformation that relates the Riemannian manifold associated with the metric to Euclidean space. The distribution, expressed in the coordinate system induced by the transformation, takes a particularly simple form that allows for an accurate variational approximation by a normal distribution. Furthermore, the algorithmic structure allows for an efficient implementation of geoVI which is demonstrated on multiple examples, ranging from low-dimensional illustrative ones to non-linear, hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems in thousands of dimensions.     

广义矩阵分布下多元回归模型的贝叶斯推断

考虑具有奇异矩阵椭球等高分布误差的多元线性回归模型的贝叶斯统计推断,在非信息先验下得到了系数矩阵关于Hausdorff测度的后验边缘分布和未来观察值的预测分布,并得到了一类特殊奇异矩阵椭球等高分布下误差协方差矩阵的后验边缘分布.对于具有奇异矩阵正态分布误差的多元线性回归模型,在广义正态-逆Wishart共轭先验下得到了类似的后验边缘分布和预测分布结果.在上述两种先验分布下,回归系数矩阵的后验边缘分布和预测分布是双奇异矩阵t分布,这种分布具有关于Hausdorff测度的精确密度.结果表明,在非信息先验下,回归系数矩阵的后验边缘分布和未来观察值的预测分布在奇异矩阵椭球等高分布类中具有稳健性.     

Hellmann–Feynman connection for the relative Fisher information

The (i) reciprocity relations for the relative Fisher information (RFI, hereafter) and (ii) a generalized RFI–Euler theorem are self-consistently derived from the Hellmann–Feynman theorem. These new reciprocity relations generalize the RFI–Euler theorem and constitute the basis for building up a mathematical Legendre transform structure (LTS, hereafter), akin to that of thermodynamics, that underlies the RFI scenario. This demonstrates the possibility of translating the entire mathematical structure of thermodynamics into a RFI-based theoretical framework. Virial theorems play a prominent role in this endeavor, as a Schrödinger-like equation can be associated to the RFI. Lagrange multipliers are determined invoking the RFI–LTS link and the quantum mechanical virial theorem. An appropriate ansatz allows for the inference of probability density functions (pdf’s, hereafter) and energy-eigenvalues of the above mentioned Schrödinger-like equation. The energy-eigenvalues obtained here via inference are benchmarked against established theoretical and numerical results. A principled theoretical basis to reconstruct the RFI-framework from the FIM framework is established. Numerical examples for exemplary cases are provided.     

Quantum theory as a description of robust experiments: Derivation of the Pauli equation

It is shown that the Pauli equation and the concept of spin naturally emerge from logical inference applied to experiments on a charged particle under the conditions that (i) space is homogeneous (ii) the observed events are logically independent, and (iii) the observed frequency distributions are robust with respect to small changes in the conditions under which the experiment is carried out. The derivation does not take recourse to concepts of quantum theory and is based on the same principles which have already been shown to lead to e.g. the Schrödinger equation and the probability distributions of pairs of particles in the singlet or triplet state. Application to Stern–Gerlach experiments with chargeless, magnetic particles, provides additional support for the thesis that quantum theory follows from logical inference applied to a well-defined class of experiments.     

Zero Expectile Processes and Bayesian Spatial Regression

We introduce new classes of stationary spatial processes with asymmetric, sub-Gaussian marginal distributions using the idea of expectiles. We derive theoretical properties of the proposed processes. Moreover, we use the proposed spatial processes to formulate a spatial regression model for point-referenced data where the spatially correlated errors have skewed marginal distribution. We introduce a Bayesian computational procedure for model fitting and inference for this class of spatial regression models. We compare the performance of the proposed method with the traditional Gaussian process-based spatial regression through simulation studies and by applying it to a dataset on air pollution in California.     

基于合成规则的相似性推理及其在焊接参数设计中的应用

焊接过程是典型的复杂过程,应用模糊逻辑建立焊接参数推理系统可快速实现焊接工艺参数设计.近似推理机制是模糊系统研究和开发中的一个重要组成部分,在现有的相似性推理方法的基础上,融合经典的合成规则推理技术,提出一种新的基于合成规则的相似性推理方法.以CO_2保护焊焊接规范参数设计为背景介绍模糊推理在焊接领域的应用,运行结果表明,采用方法建立的模糊推理模型具有较高的推算精度,能够满足焊接工艺参数设计的要求.     

Prediction of future observations using belief functions: A likelihood-based approach

We study a new approach to statistical prediction in the Dempster–Shafer framework. Given a parametric model, the random variable to be predicted is expressed as a function of the parameter and a pivotal random variable. A consonant belief function in the parameter space is constructed from the likelihood function, and combined with the pivotal distribution to yield a predictive belief function that quantifies the uncertainty about the future data. The method boils down to Bayesian prediction when a probabilistic prior is available. The asymptotic consistency of the method is established in the iid case, under some assumptions. The predictive belief function can be approximated to any desired accuracy using Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear optimization. As an illustration, the method is applied to multiple linear regression.