Full Bayesian analysis of claims reserving uncertainty

We revisit the gamma–gamma Bayesian chain-ladder (BCL) model for claims reserving in non-life insurance. This claims reserving model is usually used in an empirical Bayesian way using plug-in estimates for the variance parameters. The advantage of this empirical Bayesian framework is that allows us for closed form solutions. The main purpose of this paper is to develop the full Bayesian case also considering prior distributions for the variance parameters and to study the resulting sensitivities.     

Pseudo–almost‐periodic solutions for delayed differential equations with integrable dichotomies and bi–almost‐periodic Green functions

Using the existence of integrable bi–almost‐periodic Green functions of linear homogeneous differential equations and the contraction fixed point, we are able to prove the existence of almost and pseudo–almost‐periodic mild solutions under quite general hypotheses for the differential equation with constant delay in a Banach space X, where τ>0 is a fixed constant. The results extend the corresponding ones in the case of exponential dichotomy. Some examples illustrate the importance of the concepts.     

基于两阶段灰色聚类模型的新疆经济社会发展水平评价研究

通过两阶段灰色聚类模型选择影响经济社会发展水平,基础设施建设,相关产业发展水平以及区域经济基础四个一级指标的10个二级指标来构建区域经济社会发展水平评价指标体系,以2013年新疆14地州市相关数据为样本,运用基于改进的中心点混合三角白化权函数把新疆各地州市从经济社会发展的角度划分成4个区域,为"新丝绸之路经济带"下新疆各地州的经济与社会发展定位提供依据最后找出属于三、四级经济圈内地区经济与社会发展落后的原因并提出相关建议.     

河北省装备制造产业发展的灰色关联分析

基于灰色系统中的关联分析方法,从动态的视角出发,对河北省装备制造产业生产总值与装备制造产业系统内部结构关系进行研究分析,得出河北省装备制造产业的发展具有以下特点:金属制品业等资源加工型产业依旧在装备制造产业中占据主导地位,通用装备业和仪器仪表业等技术密集型产业的贡献率相对不足.因此,应从河北省的实际情况出发,不断优化装备制造的内部产业结构。     

基于回归分析方法下公共交通对经济增长的影响分析

随着社会经济的发展及人们环保意识的不断增强,公共交通事业的发展及其投资力度不断加大,公共交通在给人们带来方便的同时也在带动着经济的发展.通过扩展的生产函数模型,采用普通最小二乘方法对2003-2012年间的公共交通数据进行估计分析,并找出有异常值的样本点,然后利用稳健MM估计方法进行估计,结果表明公共交通变量对经济的影响具有正相关作用.     

Recoverable deformation and morphology after uniaxial elongation of a polystyrene/linear low density polyethylene blend

The transient recoverable deformation ratio after melt elongation at various elongational rates and maximum elongations was investigated for pure polystyrene and for a 85 wt.% polystyrene/15 wt.% linear low density polyethylene (PS/LLDPE 85:15) blend at a temperature of 170 ^oC. The ratio p of the zero shear rate viscosity of LLDPE to that of PS is p = 0.059 ≈ 1:17. Retraction of the elongated LLDPE droplets back to spheres and end-pinching is observed during recovery. A simple additive rule is applied in order to extract the contribution of the recovery of the elongated droplets from the total recovery of the blend. In that way, the recoverable portion of the PS/LLDPE blend induced by the interfacial tension is determined and compared with the results of a theory based on an effective medium approximation. The effective medium approximation reproduces well the time scale of the experimental data. In addition, the trends that the recoverable deformation increases with elongational rate and maximum elongation are captured by the theoretical approach.     

Regime diagram of the development of long-wave near-wall disturbances in a hypersonic boundary layer

A regime diagram of the development of slow near-wall disturbances induced by an unsteady self-induced pressure perturbation in a hypersonic boundary layer is constructed for a disturbance wavelength greater than the boundary layer thickness. It is shown that the main factors shaping the perturbed flow are the gas enthalpy near the body surface, the intensity of the viscous-inviscid interaction, and the nature (sub- or supersonic) of the main part of the boundary layer. Nonlinear boundary-value problems are formulated for regimes in which the near-wall boundary layer region plays a decisive role. Numerical and analytical solutions are obtained in the linear approximation. It is shown that intensification of the viscous-inviscid interaction or an increase in the role of the supersonic main region of the boundary layer impart generally supersonic properties to the main part of the boundary layer, i.e. the upstream propagation of the disturbances is damped and the disturbance growth downstream becomes more intense. Damping of the viscous-inviscid interaction and an increase in the role of the subsonic main part of the boundary layer have the opposite effect. Surface cooling increases the effect of the main part of the boundary layer on the formation of pressure disturbances and surface heating leads to an increase in the effect of the near-wall boundary layer region. It is also shown that for the regimes considered disturbances propagate in a direction opposite to that of the free stream from the turbulent flow region located downstream of the local disturbance development region.Translated from Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Academii Nauk, Mekhanika Zhidkosti i Gaza, No. 6, 2004, pp. 59–71. Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by Bogolepov and Neiland.     

关于国家自然科学基金资助摩擦学基础研究的分析与讨论

本文首先对国家自然科学基金在１９８６－１９９１年间资助摩擦学基础研究的情况进行了简洁的分析，接着就其资助办法作了介绍，最后着重对如何利用科学基金促进摩擦学的发展问题作了讨论，指出应当把坚持应用摩擦学学科发展战略的研究成果、鼓励和支持创新性研究、积极支持交叉学科研究和注意扶植新的学科生长点、加强摩擦学研究与实际应用相结合和促进优秀青年摩擦学研究人才的迅速成长等作为国家自然科学基金资助摩擦学基础研究的     

Mammalian-specific genomic functions: Newly acquired traits generated by genomic imprinting and LTR retrotransposon-derived genes in mammals

Mammals, including human beings, have evolved a unique viviparous reproductive system and a highly developed central nervous system. How did these unique characteristics emerge in mammalian evolution, and what kinds of changes did occur in the mammalian genomes as evolution proceeded? A key conceptual term in approaching these issues is “mammalian-specific genomic functions”, a concept covering both mammalian-specific epigenetics and genetics. Genomic imprinting and LTR retrotransposon-derived genes are reviewed as the representative, mammalian-specific genomic functions that are essential not only for the current mammalian developmental system, but also mammalian evolution itself. First, the essential roles of genomic imprinting in mammalian development, especially related to viviparous reproduction via placental function, as well as the emergence of genomic imprinting in mammalian evolution, are discussed. Second, we introduce the novel concept of “mammalian-specific traits generated by mammalian-specific genes from LTR retrotransposons”, based on the finding that LTR retrotransposons served as a critical driving force in the mammalian evolution via generating mammalian-specific genes.     

Notions of equivalence through ratios: Students with and without learning disabilities

Students with learning disabilities (LD) specific to mathematics historically underperform in foundational content such as rational number equivalence. This study examined the strategy usage and multiplicative thinking of three third grade children (i.e., Bill, a child identified as having a learning disability specific to mathematics, Carl, a child labeled as low achieving in mathematics, and Albert, a child labeled as typically achieving) before, during, and after participating in tutoring sessions consisting of student-centered pedagogy and equivalence tasks presented through an underutilized interpretation of rational number: namely, the ratio interpretation. Constant comparison analysis of the children's work during the tutoring sessions as well as responses to tasks during two clinical interviews seemed to indicate that all three children increased their use of viable strategies, with notable differences in the sophistication of the strategies as well as the level of multiplicative thinking utilized before and after the ratio-based tutoring sessions. Yet, Bill's continued use of rudimentary strategies reflects a need for continued research to investigate why the use of such strategies persists and how supporting the development of more sophisticated strategies (especially among children with LD) can be achieved.