A Maximum Entropy Model of Bounded Rational Decision-Making with Prior Beliefs and Market Feedback

Bounded rationality is an important consideration stemming from the fact that agents often have limits on their processing abilities, making the assumption of perfect rationality inapplicable to many real tasks. We propose an information-theoretic approach to the inference of agent decisions under Smithian competition. The model explicitly captures the boundedness of agents (limited in their information-processing capacity) as the cost of information acquisition for expanding their prior beliefs. The expansion is measured as the Kullblack–Leibler divergence between posterior decisions and prior beliefs. When information acquisition is free, the homo economicus agent is recovered, while in cases when information acquisition becomes costly, agents instead revert to their prior beliefs. The maximum entropy principle is used to infer least biased decisions based upon the notion of Smithian competition formalised within the Quantal Response Statistical Equilibrium framework. The incorporation of prior beliefs into such a framework allowed us to systematically explore the effects of prior beliefs on decision-making in the presence of market feedback, as well as importantly adding a temporal interpretation to the framework. We verified the proposed model using Australian housing market data, showing how the incorporation of prior knowledge alters the resulting agent decisions. Specifically, it allowed for the separation of past beliefs and utility maximisation behaviour of the agent as well as the analysis into the evolution of agent beliefs.     

Elliptic subcovers of hyperelliptic curves

The main result of this paper states that if C is a hyperelliptic curve of even genus over an arbitrary field K , then there is a natural bijection between the set of equivalence classes of elliptic subcovers of and the set of elliptic subgroups of its Jacobian .     

Closure,Defeasibility and Conclusive Reasons

It is argued, on the basis of new counterexamples, that neither knowledge nor epistemic justification (or “epistemic rationality”) can reasonably be thought to be closed under logical implication. The argument includes an attempt to reconcile the fundamental intuitions of the opposing parties in the debate.

流动性风险与股票收益率

文运用两阶段回归方法,利用上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所的A股交易数据,针对流动性风险与股票收益率之间的关系进行了实证检验。在把流动性风险分解成系统流动性风险和个体流动性风险以后,作者发现无论是系统流动性风险还是个体流动性风险都对股票收益率有显著的影响;并且与成熟市场不同的是,在中国市场上个体流动性风险对收益率的影响比系统流动性风险的影响要更显著。因此在今后研究中国股市的流动性定价时,研究人员需要考虑个体流动性风险才能够对股票收益率进行更好的解释。     

Precise large deviations for a customer-based individual risk model

In this paper,we propose a customer-based individual risk model,in which potential claims by customers are described as i.i.d.heavy-tailed random variables,but different insurance policy holders are allowed to have different probabilities to make actual claims.Some precise large deviation results for the prospective-loss process are derived under certain mild assumptions,with emphasis on the case of heavy-tailed distribution function class ERV(extended regular variation).Lundberg type limiting results on the finite time ruin probabilities are also investigated.     

一种采用优势个体多方向强制搜索策略的换热网络优化方法

提出一种采用优势个体多方向强制搜索策略的进化算法, 通过考察种群中个体差异性指标, 用以评价当前种群全局搜索的健康度。当优化结果出现长期停滞, 即健康度指标变差时, 启动优势个体多方向强制搜索策略, 扩大优势个体在靠近局部最优解区域的搜索方向, 保证算法全过程的全局搜索能力。用15SP和20SP算例进行验证, 与文献中最优结果相比, 分别下降了1.09%、0.83%, 表明优势个体多方向强制搜索策略充分发挥了优势个体的进化潜力, 提高了算法的优化效能。     

Introduction to the Special Issue

In the model, each person in a large population chooses between two options, such as adhering to or not adhering to a social norm. People observe each others’ choices at random and adjust their adherence probabilities in imitative directions. It is known from earlier work that, under strong restrictions on the imitation, the distribution of adherence probabilities will either evolve upward toward a high adherence equilibrium or downward toward a low adherence equilibrium, depending on initial conditions. The intuition is that imitation leads to uniformity. Here we show that more general forms of imitation allow a much wider variety of outcomes. There can be a sizable number of equilibria and a variety of stability patterns. In mathematical form, the model is an interactive Markov chain.     

Complete reducibility of subgroups of reductive algebraic groups over nonperfect fields III

Let G be a reductive group over a nonperfect field k. We study rationality problems for Serre’s notion of complete reducibility of subgroups of G. In our previous work, we constructed examples of subgroups H of G that are G-completely reducible but not G-completely reducible over k (and vice versa). In this article, we give a theoretical underpinning of those constructions. Then using Geometric Invariant Theory, we obtain a new result on the structure of G(k)-(and G-) orbits in an arbitrary affine G-variety. We discuss several related problems to complement the main results.     

基于双目立体视觉的视线跟踪系统标定

针对使用主动红外光的视线跟踪系统存在的限制,构建了在自然光条件下允许头部自然移动的视线跟踪系统,该系统通过双目立体视觉系统获取眼睛特征参数,在三维空间中重构眼睛视线向量来估计眼睛的视线。通过头戴式标定板来估计头部姿态,减少了视线跟踪过程中头部移动带来的误差影响;提出了一种视线跟踪系统中个人参数的标定方法,该方法先假定眼睛视轴与光轴重合,由此计算出眼球的中心、半径、眼睛视轴与光轴的夹角的初始估计值,用非线性优化算法对这些初始值进行优化。通过实验表明,提出的视线跟踪算法对使用者限制较少,同时具有较高的视线估计精度,能满足很多视线跟踪应用场合的需要。