On fail‐safe systems under random shocks

In practical situations, systems often suffer shocks from external stressing environments, stressing the system at random. These random shocks may have non‐ignorable effects on the system's reliability. In this paper, we provide sufficient (and necessary) conditions on components' lifetimes and their surviving probabilities from random shocks for comparing the lifetimes of two fail‐safe systems by means of the usual stochastic, hazard rate, and likelihood ratio orderings. Numerical examples are presented to highlight these theoretical results as well.     

专业零售商与厂家直售商的多渠道供应价格博弈的混沌动力学研究

在零售市场,专业零售商与厂家直售商的价格竞争日益突起,再次背景下构建了专业零售商和厂家直售商组成的多渠道供应链价格博弈模型。利用管理学、经济学以及混沌动力学有关理论,对多渠道供应链中各渠道间长期价格博弈的动态演化过程进行理论验证和数据仿真,研究了专业零售商和厂家直售商的价格决策变量的变化给市场带来的影响。研究表明,双方价格决策变量的不断增加,市场从稳定进入混沌无序状态。采用调整参数可以对混沌进行有效的控制,研究结果具有较好的理论和实际应用价值。     

考虑预付定金和退货的SMPEs产品定价与优化策略

借鉴中小制造型企业(SMPEs)在线渠道预售模式,考虑市场中存在预付订金和不预付订金的顾客,并将其退货情况引入到生产商利润表达式中,构建确定性和随机性市场需求下的SMPEs产品销售利润最大化模型,推导生产商产品最优定价的解析解;对比两种销售模式的利润,得到了生产商选择不同销售策略的条件。进一步考虑预付定金的产品数量、预交定金比例、退货数量是关于价格折扣敏感的情况,采用拉格朗日乘子法对生产商产品定价及优化问题进行研究,分析求得生产商销售策略(产品定价和价格折扣)的近似最优解。最后,通过数值算例对研究结论进行了验证并给出经济学解释。     

基于质量分级的生鲜农产品供应链的定价与保鲜策略研究

为了有效降低生鲜农产品损耗,保障流通与销售过程中生鲜农产品的品质及安全,解决消费者对生鲜农产品品质及其新鲜度的高追求与生鲜农产品冷链物流成本过高导致保鲜投入不足之间的矛盾,文中以价格和新鲜度为市场需求的主要影响因素,分别在产销地均不分级、销地分级和产地分级三种质量分级模式下,构建了供应商和零售商的利润函数,采用stackelberg博弈求解得到各自的最优定价策略和最优保鲜策略.对不同质量分级模式下的定价策略和保鲜策略进行对比分析显示,产地分级模式下的定价策略有利于增加市场需求及市场主体的利润;产地分级模式下的保鲜策略在控制损耗的效果和控制保鲜的成本上都优于其他模式.     

事件对国际石油价格影响的时间序列分析

用近来经济分析中应用较多的现代时间序列分析方法 ,以虚拟变量描述突发事件 ,用 ARMAX模型分析事件对国际原油价格的影响 ,并对今年海湾战争后原油价格的趋势进行预测     

The effect of market segmentation with demand leakage between market segments on a firm’s price and inventory decisions

In this paper, we address the simultaneous determination of price and inventory replenishment in a newsvendor setting when the firm faces demand from two or more market segments in which the firm can set different prices. We allow for demand leakage from higher-priced segments to lower-priced segments and assume that unsatisfied demand can be backlogged. We examine the case where the demands occur concurrently without priority and are met from a single inventory. We consider customer’s buy-down behavior explicitly by modeling demand leakage as a function of segment price differentiation, and characterize the structure of optimal inventory and pricing policies.     

Treasury Management Model with Foreign Exchange Exposure

In this paper we formulate a model for foreign exchange exposure management and (international) cash management taking into consideration random fluctuations of exchange rates. A vector error correction model (VECM) is used to predict the random behaviour of the forward as well as spot rates connecting dollar and sterling. A two-stage stochastic programming (TWOSP) decision model is formulated using these random parameter values. This model computes currency hedging strategies, which provide rolling decisions of how much forward contracts should be bought and how much should be liquidated.The model decisions are investigated through ex post simulation and backtesting in which value at risk (VaR) for alternative decisions are computed. The investigation (a) shows that there is a considerable improvement to “spot only” strategy, (b) provides insight into how these decisions are made and (c) also validates the performance of this model.     

股票价格波动的塑性性质及模型探讨

首先基于股票价格和成交量，根据股票的量价规律，分析了股价波动的塑性性质；然后使用计量经济学方法建立描述股价波动的塑性模型，包括股价塑性基本模型、基本模型的一阶自回归模型、幂指数模型及幂指数模型的一阶自回归模型，基于12支样本股对这些模型进行参数估计和检验；最后对4种形式的股价塑性模型进行了总结。由4种模型均能够通过经济学检验和统计学检验可知股价波动具有塑性性质，且幂指数模型描述股价塑性较为科学、合理。     

劳动宏观市场价格模型与就业问题的宏观经济规律

本文建立了劳动市场价格的一种平均值模型－ 劳动宏观市场价格，提出了劳动市场能量概念，得到了劳动市场熵（或负熵）的函数，对价值就业率和充分就业率进行了因素分析，并讨论了充分就业率与实际就业率的关系     

流向受限运输问题解法研究

本文讨论了流向受限运输问题虚运价取适当值时,最优解中不含非退化的限制配点,使解法更明确,并改进了模型[1]。