应用加权列联表分析预测汛期（4─9月）洪涝趋势

本文根据汉寿县１９６０─１９８８年洪涝灾害资料，应用加权列联表分析法，与前期气候因子建立洪涝趋势预测模式。最后对１９８９─１９９０年洪涝试报，取得了满意的效果。     

近代洞庭湖沉积与孕灾环境研究

通过对洞庭湖区不同沉积部位的22个钻孔取样和^210Pb放射性同位素测年分析，洞庭湖有较高的沉积速率，最高可达2．33cm／a，不同的沉积部位沉积速率也有较大的差异。由于19世纪以来四口分流形成，大量长江的泥沙进入洞庭湖，近50年的水文资料表明，洞庭湖83％的泥沙淤积来源于长江。由于人类围垦、上游森林砍伐和洲滩堤坝的逐年加高，洞庭湖水面减少了2／3，洞庭湖对长江洪水的调蓄能力已迅速减弱。洞庭湖的演变变化过程直接影响到长江中游的生态安全。     

物理化学教学中安全工程教育的融合与内化实例*

如何强化安全工程教育是化学化工类专业高等教育的一个重要课题。通过对蒸汽锅炉爆炸、火灾爆燃事故以及锈蚀危害等3个实例的详细讲述,指出在物理化学的教学中,若适时融入相关的安全工程教育,可以使学生深刻理解安全事故发生及防范所依赖的物理化学原理,从而起到安全意识的内化作用。教学中现代教育技术的引入可以增强这一效果。     

复杂网络上灾害蔓延动力学研究

针对关键生命线系统，如电网、供水网、供气网、交通网、通信网等的一些共性特征，建立一个普适性的灾害蔓延动力学模型. 这个模型考虑网络结点的自修复功能、灾害蔓延机制和内部随机噪声，并研究自修复因子、延迟时间因子和噪声强度三个重要特征参数对三种网络(随机网络、无标度网络和小世界网络)结点修复率和崩溃结点数的影响. 模拟结果与这些实际生命线系统的特征一致，表明所建立的模型可以有效地模拟生命线系统的灾害演化动力学. 关键词： 复杂网络 生命线系统 灾害蔓延     

Trade-offs between target hardening and overarching protection

Defenders concerned about protecting multiple targets can either protect them individually (through target hardening), or collectively (through overarching protections such as border security, public health, emergency response, or intelligence). Decision makers may find it relatively straightforward to choose which targets to harden, but are likely to find it more difficult to compare seemingly incommensurate forms of protection - e.g., target hardening, versus a reduction in the likelihood of weapons being smuggled across the border. Unfortunately, little previous research has addressed this question, and fundamental research is needed to provide guidance and practical solution approaches. In this paper, we first develop a model to optimally allocate resources between target hardening and overarching protection, then investigate the factors affecting the relative desirability of target hardening versus overarching protection, and finally apply our model to a case study involving critical assets in Wisconsin. The case study demonstrates the value of our method by showing that the optimal solution obtained using our model is in some cases substantially better than the historical budget allocation.     

东天山的一次暴雨洪水中心最大雨量的估算

本文通过对新疆天山东部地区一次罕见的大暴雨洪水的特征分析，应用水箱模型法和最大熵原理等方法推算出本次大暴雨的中心最大雨量和流域面平均降水量．     

洪灾综合风险分析方法讨论(Ⅰ)——基于集对分析理论

随着社会经济的发展及人们对洪水灾害认识的深入,洪灾风险的研究从单一风险转向综合风险,将是防洪减灾理论发展的必然趋势.根据洪灾风险的特性,引入信息的整体性原理,并应用集对分析理论对洪灾风险系统进行确定不确定分析,首次提出了洪灾系统风险的同异反分析方法.该方法将干旱、洪涝及其风险信息综合体现在洪水灾害系统的联系度中,从而为进一步开展详尽的综合风险分析奠定了理论基础.     

THE RESEARCHES OF GLACIER LAKE OUTBURST FLOODS OF THE YARKANT RIVER IN XINJIANG

The Jokulhlaup of the Yarkant River (Yarkant He) is usually csused by the sudden discharge of the glacier-dammed lake and the mode of the discharge is the rapid expansion of the subglacial channel. Keyajir (Kyagar) Glacier and Telamukanli Glacier are on the upper reaches of the Keleqin (Shaksgam) River, the chief birthplaces of this kind of flood. Up to the end of this century, since the global climate has become warmer, the glaciers have accordingly shrunk and become thinner, with the result that the size and dimensions of the glacier-dammed lakes and their outburst floods have diminished. All these simply reveal the mystery of the Jokulhlaups of the Yarkant River in Xinjiang.     

黑龙江省矿区生态破坏与地质灾害及其防治

黑龙江省矿产分布情况和开发概况以及矿业开发在经济发展中占有重要地位 ;在矿业开发过程中引起的诸多生态破坏和地质灾害及其引起的危害 ,已引起高度重视 ;本文在综合论述黑龙江省矿区发展所带来各项利弊后提出了具体的防治对策。     

人为地质灾害和地质环境

本文论述了人为地质灾害的概念, 典型事例以及人为地质灾害与地质环境的相互关系。指出, 人为地质灾害是由于人类的工程经济活动而引起的地质灾害。人为地质灾害可导致地质环境恶化, 使环境质量下降；而地质环境恶化又可导致地质灾害的加重, 使灾害频度增大, 强度增高。