Something out of nothing: a Bayesian learning computational model for the social construction of value

ABSTRACT

This article develops a formalism for the social construction of value. Using a model based on Bayesian agents, it demonstrates how “something” arises out of “nothing” via the emergence of durable value conventions and shows how the developed framework can be used to investigate socially constructed valuations under a variety of circumstances. The resulting analysis clarifies why assumptions that collectives will converge upon the “intrinsic” (i.e., non-socially originating) value of an object (e.g., market efficiency) may not hold for mixed social and non-social valuation regimes, explains the dependency of socially constructed valuations on early accidents, demonstrates the effects of confident actors on constructed values, and identifies the production of time-dependent ratcheting effects from the interaction of bubbles with value conventions.     

Design and economics of industrial production of fructooligosaccharides

A process for industrial production of fructooligosaccharides (FOS’s) based on the conversion of sucrose by immobilized fructosyltransferase (FTase) from the cells of Aureobasidium pullulans CCY 27-1-94 was developed. Particular process operations and conditions were designed employing results of laboratory and semi-pilot scale experiments. The process flowsheet comprised three sections: FTase production, which included fermentation, isolation and purification of the enzyme, FTase immobilization and FOS’s production where a product with a high content of FOS’s was prepared by the removal of glucose, fructose and unreacted sucrose from the reaction mixture using simulated moving-bed chromatography. Two alternative process flowsheets were proposed for the annual production of 10 000 t of FOS’s: one for a powdery product and the second one for syrup. The economic analysis provided the costs for the production of immobilized FTase and FOS’s using two different price estimates for sucrose.     

多水平模型及其在经济分析中的应用

针对具有层次或聚类数据的多水平模型能准确地反映变量间基于层次框架下的关系,并给出不同层次数据的差异性估计及跨级相关估计,为具有层次结构数据的统计建模提供了重要的研究工具,在社会学、心理学、生物医学及经济学领域具有广泛的应用价值。本文简要介绍常用的多水平线性模型和多水平Logistic模型的构建过程,重点介绍其在经济领域中的应用。同时对多水平模型的估计理论、应用软件以及发展展望进行了讨论。     

多水平模型及其在经济分析中的应用

针对具有层次或聚类数据的多水平模型能准确地反映变量间基于层次框架下的关系,并给出不同层次数据的差异性估计及跨级相关估计,为具有层次结构数据的统计建模提供了重要的研究工具,在社会学、心理学、生物医学及经济学领域具有广泛的应用价值。本文简要介绍常用的多水平线性模型和多水平Logistic模型的构建过程,重点介绍其在经济领域中应用。同时对多水平模型的估计理论,应用软件以和发展展望进行了讨论。     

Microscopic models for welfare measures addressing a reduction of economic inequality

We formulate a flexible micro‐to‐macro kinetic model which is able to explain the emergence of income profiles out of a whole of individual economic interactions. The model is expressed by a system of several nonlinear differential equations which involve parameters defined by probabilities. Society is described as an ensemble of individuals divided into income classes; the individuals exchange money through binary and ternary interactions, leaving the total wealth unchanged. The ternary interactions represent taxation and redistribution effects. Dynamics is investigated through computational simulations, the focus being on the effects that different fiscal policies and differently weighted welfare policies have on the long‐run income distributions. The model provides a tool which may contribute to the identification of the most effective actions toward a reduction of economic inequality. We find for instance that, under certain hypotheses, the Gini index is more affected by a policy of reduction of the welfare and subsidies for the rich classes than by an increase of the upper tax rate. Such a policy also has the effect of slightly increasing the total tax revenue. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 89–98, 2016     

考虑环境因素的中国城市经济效率评价研究

在考虑环境因素情形下,实证考察中国城市经济效率水平.引入环境因素,构建中国城市经济效率评价指标体系;运用DEA-BCC模型对中国31个省会城市和计划单列市的经济效率进行评价,计算得出各决策单元的DEA评价值,并进行效率分析、投入冗余产出不足分析和区域比较分析.考虑环境因素情形下,中国城市经济效率总体上较好,综合效率、纯技术效率和规模效率平均值分别达0.912、0.855和0.940,但个体差异较大,存在个体间的非均衡发展;从规模报酬来看,太原、福州、南昌等10个决策单元的经济规模应适当增加;长春、哈尔滨、南京等9个决策单元的经济规模应适当减少;太原、长春、哈尔滨等16个决策单元存在不同程度的投入冗余和产出不足,亟待改进;中国城市经济效率存在区域间的非均衡发展,综合效率平均值呈现东部地区最高,中部地区次之,西部地区最低的格局.     

带有非线性收获和妊娠时滞的微分代数捕食者-食饵系统的稳定性及Hopf分支

本文研究了一类同时带有非线性食饵收获和捕食者妊娠时滞的微分代数捕食者-食饵系统的稳定性及Hopf分支问题.利用了分支理论和稳定性理论,以捕食者妊娠时滞作为系统的分支参数,获得了所提出的新系统在正平衡点处系统稳定性的相关判据条件和Hopf分支的产生条件.推广了一般带有线性收获和时滞的微分代数捕食者-食饵系统的结论.     

一个用于支持经济预测决策的EP—ESS模型

本文论述了EP-ESS的结构及其各部分之间的关系,并给出了ES部分推理的数学模型及其实现的流程图。     

Economic analysis of selected lignocellulose-to-ethanol conversion technologies

The objective of this case study was to examine the economics of three lignocellulose-to-ethanol conversion technologies: fast pyrolysis integrated with a fermentation step, simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF), and dilute sulfuric acid hydrolysis and fermentation. All technologies were assumed to have an annual production rate of 25 million gallons of ethanol. The three technologies were compared in terms of capital costs, operating costs, and ethanol production costs. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to study the uncertainties of wood costs and ethanol production rates on ethanol production costs. Final economic analysis showed that fast pyrolysis integrated with a fermentation step is comparable with the other two processes and suggests that it should be considered for further development.     

结构的全过程设计优化

建立了结构生命期内的设计优化模型。根据该模型,不仅可以得到结构的最优设计－维修策略,而且可以得以结构的寿命期。对在役结构,给出当前结构的剩余承载力,模型将给出结构以后的最优维修决策。该模型的优点在于理论简单易懂,计算方便,便于实际应用。