Hybrid artificial neural networks for efficient valuation of real options and financial derivatives

A hybrid valuation methodology is proposed and tested for improving the efficiency of contingent claims pricing by combining Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and conventional parametric option pricing techniques. With one application on financial derivatives and one on real options the methods superiority is demonstrated. The resulting efficiency is instrumental for real time applications.MSC code: 90-08 Acknowledgements: Both authors are thankful for partial financial support to the HERMES European Center of Excellence on Computational Finance and Economics of the University of Cyprus and a University of Cyprus grant for research in ANNs and Derivatives, and to the anonymous referees for their helpful comments and discussions.     

Trading by Quantum Rules: Quantum Anthropic Principle

This is a short review of the background and recent development in quantum game theory and its possible application in economics and finance. The intersection of science and society is discussed and Quantum Anthropic Principle is put forward. The review is addressed to nonspecialists.     

The $-game

We propose a payoff function extending Minority Games (MG) that captures the competition between agents to make money. In contrast with previous MG, the best strategies are not always targeting the minority but are shifting opportunistically between the minority and the majority. The emergent properties of the price dynamics and of the wealth of agents are strikingly different from those found in MG. As the memory of agents is increased, we find a phase transition between a self-sustained speculative phase in which a “stubborn majority” of agents effectively collaborate to arbitrage a market-maker for their mutual benefit and a phase where the market-maker always arbitrages the agents. A subset of agents exhibit a sustained non-equilibrium risk-return profile. Received 5 June 2002 / Received in final form 21 November 2002 Published online 27 January 2003 RID="a" ID="a"e-mail: sornette@unice.fr RID="b" ID="b"CNRS UMR7536 RID="c" ID="c"CNRS UMR6622     

Scale-free avalanches in the multifractal random walk

Avalanches, or Avalanche-like, events are often observed in the dynamical behaviour of many complex systems which span from solar flaring to the Earth's crust dynamics and from traffic flows to financial markets. Self-organized criticality (SOC) is one of the most popular theories able to explain this intermittent charge/discharge behaviour. Despite a large amount of theoretical work, empirical tests for SOC are still in their infancy. In the present paper we address the common problem of revealing SOC from a simple time series without having much information about the underlying system. As a working example we use a modified version of the multifractal random walk originally proposed as a model for the stock market dynamics. The study reveals, despite the lack of the typical ingredients of SOC, an avalanche-like dynamics similar to that of many physical systems. While, on one hand, the results confirm the relevance of cascade models in representing turbulent-like phenomena, on the other, they also raise the question about the current state of reliability of SOC inference from time series analysis.     

Exact solutions for network rewiring models

Evolving networks with a constant number of edges may be modelled using a rewiring process. These models are used to describe many real-world processes including the evolution of cultural artifacts such as family names, the evolution of gene variations, and the popularity of strategies in simple econophysics models such as the minority game. The model is closely related to Urn models used for glasses, quantum gravity and wealth distributions. The full mean field equation for the degree distribution is found and its exact solution and generating solution are given.     

Endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes

A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is carried out on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation analysis, and their generalizations to higher orders. Non-universal dynamics have been found not only in the scaling exponent α, which is different from the universal values 1/2 and 1, but also in the distributions of the ratio η= σ^exo / σ^endo of individual stocks. Both the scaling exponent α of fluctuations and the Hurst exponent H_i increase in logarithmic form with the time scale Δt and the mean traded value per minute 〈f_i 〉, respectively. We find that the scaling exponent α^endo of the endogenous fluctuations is independent of the time scale. Multiscaling and multifractal features are observed in the data as well. However, the inhomogeneous impact model is not verified.     

多标准等级判别模型在信用评级中的应用研究

在对目前我国信用评级方法应用现状分析的基础上,提出改进的多标准等级判别模型.并将该模型应用于商业银行信用风险评估中.通过对银行五级分类贷款样本的实证研究,证实了该判别模型的有效性和先进性.     

数学建模与聚类分析方法在企业经营效绩评价中的综合运用

本论文通过CT总公司所属九个分公司财务指标即:财务效益状况指标,资产营运状况指标,偿债能力状况指标,发展能力状况指标和稳固程度状况指标五个方面的财务状况数据,一方面采用数理统计方法进行数据分析,建立数学模型,设定了评分办法及评分标准.做出了CT总公司所属九个分公司2 0 0 0年的经营业绩(量化)评价结果.另一方面按九个公司财务指标的原始数据用聚类分析的方法将其归类,进一步揭示出各个公司之间的联系与差别.     

围绕财经特色主题 加强《高等代数》精品课程建设

我校精品课程《高等代数》建设的思路是,围绕财经特色主题,坚持以高等代数理论为基础,以经济、管理类的专业为依托,以数学实验室为训练基地,将数学建模的思想融入到《高等代数》的教学活动中.这种教学模式的改变不仅有利于学生的培养,而且有助于培养出一支有较高水平的师资队伍.使我们的《高等代数》课程真正成为高水平、高质量的示范性课程.     

ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES BY MECHANICAL METHOD (Ⅰ)—BASIC EQUATION OF PRICE OF INDEX FUTURES

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