A complex multi-attribute large-group PLS decision-making method in the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment

In the complex multi-attribute large-group decision-making (CMALGDM) problems in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF) environment, attributes of the alternatives are often stratified and correlated. This paper proposes a decision-making method for these problems based on partial least squares (PLS) path modelling, which not only fully exploits the decision information of decision makers (DMs), but also effectively addresses the relativity problem in the decision attributes and objectively assigned weights to the primary decision attributes (i.e., “latent variables for decision making”). The method can be outlined in three steps. First, a two-stage method is proposed to transform the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number (IVIFN) samples into single-valued samples. In this step, an improved C-OWA operator is first given to transform the IVIFN samples into intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN) samples, which makes the preference information of the DMs more objectively aggregated. Then a proposed membership-based method is applied to reduce the information loss and transform the IFN samples into single-valued samples. Second, the estimated values and weights of the “latent variables for decision-making” are obtained by means of the PLS path modelling algorithm. Finally, a multi-alternative sorting method is devised in accordance with the estimated values and weights. An example is provided to illustrate the proposed technique and evaluate its feasibility and validity.     

基于核的区间直觉模糊信息集成的一类算子及其决策应用

定义了区间数核、区间直觉模糊数核的概念.并以此为基础,提出了区间直觉模糊数表示的模糊信息的几个集成算子:IIFKWA,IIFKWG,IIFKOWA IIFKOWG,IIFKHA,IIFKHG,研究了算子性质.探讨了集成算子在多属性决策中的应用,算例分析表明其具有可行性与有效性.     

基于证据推理的混合型多指标群组决策方法

针对决策方案的属性值为语言评价等级和区间灰数的灰色多指标群组决策问题,提出一种基于证据推理的灰色多指标群组决策方法.首先,根据语言评价信息的概率分布和效用值等价原理确定定性指标和定量指标的信用结构,进而得到群体等级信用结构决策矩阵,然后,依据证据推理方法,对群组评价信息进行合成,求出各方案在各等级的信任度,最后,利用期望方差排序方法确定整个方案集的排序.具体算例表明方法合理有效.     

情绪对股票投资收益及后续投资决策的影响

金融学视角的研究使用市场变量代表投资者情绪,未能触及情绪本质.从心理学视角出发,使用行为金融实验方法,研究股票投资者的真实情绪对收益率及后续决策风险偏好的影响.结果发现:1)股价单边下跌时,产生适度消极情绪的个体收益最高.2)对于后续盈利情境的决策,前期产生积极情绪的个体倾向于规避风险,产生消极情绪的个体倾向于寻求风险;对于后续亏损情境的决策,个体均表现为寻求风险.3)股价单边上涨或下跌时,个体最容易出现的具体情绪分别是"倍受鼓舞"、"内疚"等.     

基于保守决策偏好的犹豫模糊余弦优化投影决策方法

针对犹豫模糊信息下的多属性决策问题,提出了余弦优化投影方法,将投影夹角定义为决策者的风险偏好,并设置了态度参数用于调节决策者的心理变化,通过灵活描述决策者的保守心理,改进了投影法仅考虑投影长度的不足,使决策者可通过投影长度和投影夹角对备选方案进行综合判断。算例验证了方法的合理性和可行性。     

Compatible weighting method with rank order centroid: Maximum entropy ordered weighted averaging approach

In a situation where imprecise attribute weights such as a rank order are captured, various approximate weighting methods have been proposed to aid multiattribute decision analysis. Among others, it is well known that the rank order centroid (ROC) weights result in the highest performance in terms of the identification of the best alternative under the ranked attribute weights. In this paper, we aim to reinterpret the meaning of the ROC weights and to develop a compatible weighting method that is based on other well-established academic disciplines. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method is a nonlinear aggregation method in that the weights are associated with the objects reordered according to their magnitudes in the aggregation process. Some interesting semantics can be attached to the approximate weights in view of the measure developed in the OWA method. Furthermore, the weights generated by the maximum entropy method show equally compatible performance with the ROC weights under some condition, which is demonstrated by theoretical and simulation analysis.     

混合型多属性决策的灰色关联分析法

针对属性权重信息不完全且属性取值为精确数,区间数和模糊数相结合的混合型多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于理想解的多属性决策的灰色关联分析方法.首先将三种不同形式的属性值均转化为区间数形式,然后依据灰色关联分析的思路,给出了解决该问题的计算步骤,其核心是构建并求解一个单目标最优化模型,得到每个方案与正、负理想方案的关联度,进而计算出每个方案对正理想方案的相对关联度,即可得到所有方案的排序结果.最后给出了一个数值例子,结果表明方法简单,有效和易于计算.     

Multi-objectives Tabu Search based algorithm for progressive resource allocation

Military course of action planning involves time and space synchronization as well as resource and asset allocation. A mission could be seen as a defined set of logical ordered tasks with time and space constraints. The resources to task rules require that available assets should be allocated to each task. A combination of assets might be required to execute a given task. The couple (task, resources) constitutes an action. This problem is formulated as a multi-objectives scheduling and resource allocation problem. Any solution is assessed based on a number of conflicting and heterogeneous objectives. In fact, military planning officers should keep perfecting the plan based on the Commander’s criteria for success. The scheduling problem and resource allocation problem are considered as NP-Hard Problems [A. Guitouni, B. Urli, J.-M. Martel, Course of action planning: A project based modelling, Working Paper, Faculté des sciences de l’ administration, Université Laval, Québec, 2005]. This paper is concerned with the multi-objectives resource allocation problem. Our objective is to find adequate resource allocation for given courses of action schedule. To optimize this problem, this paper investigates non-exact solution methods, like meta-heuristic methods for finding potential efficient solutions. A progressive resource allocation methodology is proposed based on Tabu Search and multi-objectives concepts. This technique explores the search space so as to find a set of potential efficient solutions without aggregating the objectives into a single objective function. It is guided by the principle of maximizing the usage of any resource before considering a replacement resource. Thus, a given resource is allocated to the maximum number of tasks for a given courses of action schedule. A good allocation is a potential efficient solution. These solutions are retained by applying a combination of a dominance rule and a multi-criteria filtering method. The performance of the proposed Pareto-based approach is compared to two aggregation approaches: weighted-sum and the lexicographic techniques. The result shows that a Pareto-based approach is providing better solutions and allowing more flexibility to the decision-maker.     

An axiomatic characterization of different majority concepts

A lot of decision support systems use some kind of aggregation procedure based on the concept of majority, but not always the same one; it can be simple majority, weak majority or one of the many other kinds of majority. This paper attempts to present the main variants of majority and to characterize them in a uniform way. Consequently, it is now easier to compare different kinds of majority and to understand the dissimilarities (or similarities) between them. This should help decision analysts willing to use a majority procedure to choose the right one for their problem and context.     

Portfolio selection under strict uncertainty: A multi-criteria methodology and its application to the Frankfurt and Vienna Stock Exchanges

In modern portfolio theory, it is common practice to first compute the risk-reward efficient frontier and then to support an individual investor in selecting a portfolio that meets his/her preferences for profitability and risk. Potential flaws include (a) the assumption that past data provide sufficient evidence for predicting the future performances of the securities under consideration and (b) the necessity to mathematically determine or approximate the investor’s utility function. In this paper, we propose a methodology whose initial phase filters portfolios that are inefficient from a historical perspective. While this is consistent with traditional approaches, the second phase differs from the standard approach as it uses a decision table constructed by considering multiple scenarios assuming strict uncertainty. The table cells measure consequences by a multi-criteria linear performance index of simulated future returns, which avoids difficulties with performance ratios. The real world applicability is illustrated through two studies based on data from the stock exchanges in Frankfurt and Vienna.