Projection of Markov Measures May Be Gibbsian

We study the induced measure obtained from a 1-step Markov measure, supported by a topological Markov chain, after the mapping of the original alphabet onto another one. We give sufficient conditions for the induced measure to be a Gibbs measure (in the sense of Bowen) when the factor system is again a topological Markov chain. This amounts to constructing, when it does exist, the induced potential and proving its Hölder continuity. This is achieved through a matrix method. We provide examples and counterexamples to illustrate our results.     

Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

光突发交换的交换控制策略和光缓存配置

光突发交换是面向下一代互联网的光交换模式.讨论了异步光突发交换系统的交换控制策略以及相应光缓存的优化配置策略.除了传统预约模式的交换策略,还研究了非预约和改进型预约模式,它们的性能评估由计算机仿真给出.结果表明:在条件相当情况下,改进型预约模式具有最低的丢包率.同时光缓存的配置对上述几类交换控制策略的性能都有很大影响,仿真结果指出:光缓存的粒度对系统性能具有重要影响,所讨论的几类交换模式都存在最佳时延粒度,研究结果对光交换矩阵的设计有指导意义.     

期货经纪公司保证金的一种确定方法

本文基于马尔可夫链在存储论中的应用，结合Ergodic定理，得到确定期货经纪公司保证金的Ergodic模型，即一个双目标规划问题，然后应用乘积最大化准则，将该模型转化为单目标规划问题来求解。该方法考虑期货经纪公司承担的风险和对投资者的吸引程度，为保证金的确定提供新的思路。     

基于MMD算法的HMM参数重估计的矩阵表示

本文提出的MMD算法用于提高模型区别错误信息和正确信息的能力．利用该算法在对模型的参数进行重估计时．涉及到复杂的目标函数的梯度运算．击运用矩阵运算使得梯度运算变得简单明了，因此本文给出了MMD算法下的HMM参数重估计的矩阵表示形式并给出了证明．     

NCD系统的数学理论

无索赔折扣系统(No Claim Discount system,简记为NCD系统)是世界各国机动车辆险中广泛采用的一种经验费率厘定机制.本文尝试建立了NCD系统严谨的数学理论, 重点讨论了NCD系统的数学建模和稳态分析.此外,作为本文必要的数学前提,首先在第2节着重探讨了随机矩阵间的随机优序关系,并将所得结论运用至齐次不可约且遍历的马尔科夫链的研究中,这些内容也有其独立的数学上的兴趣.     

强流束晕-混沌的外部磁场开关控制

研究了强流离子束在周期聚焦磁场通道中束晕-混沌的外部磁场开关参数控制方法. 将该方法应用在多粒子模型中，实现了对5种不同初始分布质子束的束晕-混沌的有效控制，得到了消除束晕及其再生现象的理想结果.在强流加速器系统中，由于外部磁场是可测和可调 的物理量，因此该控制方法有利于实验研究，可为强流质子加速器中周期聚焦磁场的设计和实验提供参考. 关键词： 强流离子束 周期聚焦磁场通道 束晕_混沌 混沌控制 开 关控制     

Piecewise Deterministic Markov Control Processes with Feedback Controls and Unbounded Costs

The control of piecewise-deterministic processes is studied where only local boundedness of the data is assumed. Moreover the discount rate may be zero. The value function is shown to be solution to the Bellman equation in a weak sense; however the solution concept is strong enough to generate optimal policies. Continuity and compactness conditions are given for the existence of nonrelaxed optimal feedback controls.     

Stability Conditions of the MMAP [ K ]/ G [ K ]/1/ LCFS Preemptive Repeat Queue

In this paper, we study the stability conditions of the MMAP[K]/G[K]/1/LCFS preemptive repeat queue. We introduce an embedded Markov chain of matrix M/G/1 type with a tree structure and identify conditions for the Markov chain to be ergodic. First, we present three conventional methods for the stability problem of the queueing system of interest. These methods are either computationally demanding or do not provide accurate information for system stability. Then we introduce a novel approach that develops two linear programs whose solutions provide sufficient conditions for stability or instability of the queueing system. The new approach is numerically efficient. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods introduced in this paper are analyzed both theoretically and numerically.