运用系统动力学模型预测稀土战略储备规模

基于全球稀土资源的供需形势和中国稀土资源减少的趋势,运用系统动力学的模型来预测未来17年我国稀土资源储备量。选取了2000~2013的生产和消费数据,通过定量模拟计算中国稀土供需差波动系数,设计了稀土资源供需差波动范围分别为0%,20%的两个方案,模拟计算了两个方案的年储备量、累计储备量和储备量绝对值。方案一范围是(-0%,+0%),仿真预测出稀土未来17年累积储备量为720551 t,即战略储备规模达到720551 t,该方案下不论供需差发生如何波动,国家都会进行储备或释放调节;方案二范围是(-20%,+20%),预测出未来17年战略储备规模为461331 t,国家只需在这个范围外进行收储释放调节,从而调节市场供求,降低价格波动幅度。本文从不同供需差的波动系数来模拟计算储备量,目的是为国家相关部门在进行稀土储备决策时提供参考,可以根据我国经济景气状况和供需形势,以及稀土产业发展状况,进行不同规模的稀土储备。     

“禁摩限电”效果综合评价模型

将交通需求级别进行划分后,通过数据包络分析法计算交通需求匹配度和交通运行效率,近乎绝对细化交通运行表现,依据具有时间轴的四维交通状况模拟建立了全新多维度的交通评价体系。此外,利用模糊层次分析法确定道路交通安全评价指标体系中各个指标的权重,同时作出基于差异驱动原理的综合评价。最后,将交通的污染指标提炼为机动车的排放指标和电动车的耗电指标来衡量交通工具对环境的影响。     

基于向后逐步回归模型的我国农机需求特征及影响因素研究

以2004-2014年数据为样本,以农机总动力为因变量,以农机购置补贴、农机价格、农机作业服务价格、农户人均纯收入、农产品价格、农业劳动力数量和农作物播种总面积为自变量构建了我国农机需求影响因素的回归方程,向后逐步回归结果表明:(1)除农作物播种总面积、农机作业服务价格、农产品价格之外,其余变量对农机总动力的影响均统计上显著;(2)农机购置补贴、农机价格指数、农户人均纯收入及农业劳动力四个变量对农机需求的弹性系数分别为0.027、-0.004、0.457、0.474。最后根据研究结果提出加大与落实农机购置补贴、规范农机价格、培育新型经营主体、加速土地规范流转等政策建议。     

碳税政策下时变需求依赖库存与价格的供应链协调模型

研究由一个供应商和一个零售组成的二级供应链系统在碳税政策下的协调问题.对于市场需求率为时变函数且依赖于当前库存水平和销售价格的情形,建立分散式和集中式供应链决策模型.比较两种模型得出供应商和零售商合作能够提高供应链的整体利润但是也会产生更多的碳排放.分别利用批发价格契约和两部收费契约协调分散式决策模型得出供应链协调的条件.最后通过数值算例验证理论结果并分析碳税单价对供应链在两部收费契约下实现协调的影响.     

Stochastic optimization of an urban rail timetable under time‐dependent and uncertain demand

Urban rail planning is extremely complex, mainly because it is a decision problem under different uncertainties. In practice, travel demand is generally uncertain, and therefore, the timetabling decisions must be based on accurate estimation. This research addresses the optimization of train timetable at public transit terminals of an urban rail in a stochastic setting. To cope with stochastic fluctuation of arrival rates, a two‐stage stochastic programming model is developed. The objective is to construct a daily train schedule that minimizes the expected waiting time of passengers. Due to the high computational cost of evaluating the expected value objective, the sample average approximation method is applied. The method provided statistical estimations of the optimality gap as well as lower and upper bounds and the associated confidence intervals. Numerical experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the solution method.     

不确定需求与产出供应链回购契约决策

针对市场需求的不确定性和供应商产出产品合格率的不确定性,提出供应商产出量小于销售商订购量时需再生产满足销售商的订购,以及供应商生产过量和回购的产品通过折扣市场出售,建立以供应链期望利润为目标函数,以回购单价为决策变量的供应链回购契约决策模型.通过模型的分析,证明了模型存在最优的期望利润,给出了最优回购单价满足的方程;同时,也证明了最优订购量,最优生产量和销售商最优期望利润是回购单价的增函数.最后,通过算例验证了模型的有效性.     

The synthesis of new tetrabenzo- and tetranaphthoporphyrins via the addition reactions of 4,7-dihydroisoindole

The double bond in 4,7-dihydroisoindole derivatives was shown to be a useful reaction site to afford new porphyrinogenic pyrrolic precursors bearing substituted annelated rings via various addition reactions. These precursors are further used to afford new extended porphyrins substituted in the annelated rings. The Sharpless osmium-catalyzed dihydroxylation of dihydroisoindole system was shown to be useful in the synthesis of non-ionogenic water-soluble porphyrin, as well as tetrabenzoporphyrin bearing acetoxy-substituents in benzo-rings. The reverse electron-demand Diels-Alder reaction with tetrachlorothiophene-1,1-dioxide afforded new polychlorosubstituted tetranaphthoporphyrin.     

Native biofilm cultured under controllable condition and used in mediated method for BOD measurement

In this article, we developed a native biofilm (NBF) bioreactor used for biochemical oxygen demand mediated method (BOD_Med). There were two innovations differed from previous BOD_Med assay. Firstly, the immobilization of microorganisms was adopted in BOD_Med. Secondly, the NBF was introduced for BOD measurement. The NBF bioreactor has been characterized by optical microscopy. A culture condition of NBF with 24 h, 35 °C and pH 7 was optimized. Furthermore, a measuring condition with 35 °C, pH 7 and 55 mM ferricyanide in 1 h incubation were optimized. Based on the optimized condition, the real wastewater samples from local sewage treatment plant had been measured. Performances of the NBFs proposed at different culture conditions were recorded for 110 d, and the results indicated that long-term storage stability was obtained. With the proposed method, an uncontaminated native microbial source solution can be obtained from a wastewater treatment plant. In this way, we can ensure that the microbial species of all in the NBF are same as that in the target to be measured.     

Price-sensitive demand for perishable items - an EOQ model

This paper develops a finite time-horizon deterministic EOQ (Economic Order Quantity) model where the rate of demand decreases quadratically with selling price. Prices at different periods are considered as decision variables. The objective is to find the optimal ordering quantity and optimal sales prices that maximizes the vendor’s total profit. The results are discussed with numerical examples. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to the key parameters of the system is carried out.     

Optimal policy for deteriorating items with trapezoidal type demand and partial backlogging

Inventory model for time-dependent deteriorating items with trapezoidal type demand rate and partial backlogging is considered in this paper. The demand rate is defined as a continuous trapezoidal function of time, and the backlogging rate is a non-increasing exponential function of the waiting time up to the next replenishment. We proposed an optimal replenishment policy for such inventory model, numerical examples to illustrate the solution procedure.