水环境中有机污染物生化需氧量的测定

本文从理论和实践上讨论了水质监测中有机污染物生化需氧量(BOD)测定中的有关问题。其中包括BOD测定中发生的生化反应过程，好氧生化反应速率及速率常数，影响BOD测定结果的各种因素，BOD测定技术，以及BOD与COD、TOC的相关性。     

Limit theorems for the pre-averaged Hayashi–Yoshida estimator with random sampling

We will focus on estimating the integrated covariance of two diffusion processes observed in a nonsynchronous manner. The observation data is contaminated by some noise, which possibly depends on the time and the latent diffusion processes, while the sampling times also possibly depend on the observed processes. In a high-frequency setting, we consider a modified version of the pre-averaged Hayashi–Yoshida estimator, and we show that such a kind of estimator has the consistency and the asymptotic mixed normality, and attains the optimal rate of convergence.     

Is the US stock market becoming weakly efficient over time? Evidence from 80-year-long data

We propose a degree of market efficiency in terms of entropy concepts. The relative efficiency for the US stock market varies over time from 1929 to 2012, with a slight decline in the past 10 years.     

EFFECT OF FORESTLAND AVAILABILITY BY OWNERSHIP TYPE ON LICENSE SALES FOR HUNTING: A SPATIAL APPROACH

Abstract The effect of forestland availability under different ownership types on license sales for hunting in nine Southeastern states is empirically evaluated. An equation that represents license sales for hunting is estimated assuming the sale of hunting licenses in a particular county is related to the characteristics of that county as well as the characteristics and license sales for hunting in its neighboring counties. The positive effects of the amounts of both national and private forestland on license sales reaffirm the potential benefits of maintaining forestland to stimulate hunting. The positive spillover effect of national forests on license sales for hunting suggests that availability and close access to hunting in national forests within neighboring counties are important in supporting hunting license sales in a county. This study contributes to the general understanding of the drivers affecting individuals’ decisions to use natural resources for hunting. Advances in natural resource modeling, specifically the spatial process model and geospatial data used in this research, make it possible to examine the interactions between the spatial dynamics and ownership attributes of the natural system, allowing policy makers to design natural resource management practices that respond to a system characterized by these interactions.     

市场需求信息不对称下的保兑仓融资风险控制策略

信息不对称风险广泛存在于保兑仓融资过程当中,本文运用Stackelberg博弈模型刻画融资系统成员关系,运用动态规划优化分析方法求解对应博弈均衡策略。总结出需求信息不对称的三种表现形式:信息造假,信息优势及信息隐匿,分析各类信息不对称情形对融资系统所造成影响,并相应提出实现信息显示功能的契约甄别机制。研究表明:零售商可从信息不对称中获取巨大信息优势,但对其他成员造成损害,其中信息隐匿对生产商损害程度更高;二部定价机制可实现信息甄别,但生产商须为之付出信息租金,造成效率损失;而合理参数设定下的二部定价加回购机制有助于进一步改进融资系统及各成员收益,甚至达到次协调状态,最终实现融资成员收益的帕累托改进。本研究对于控制供应链融资中的信息风险、改善融资效率提供了理论依据及决策参考。     

Firms can benefit from inaccurate market beliefs

A supplier sells to a retailer who serves a market with uncertain demand. Before the season starts, the retailer preorders from the supplier, who stocks to satisfy at least the preorder. After the actual demand is realized, the retailer can place an at-once order, which is satisfied up to stock availability. Market demand, as perceived by a firm, can differ from what it actually is. We find that a firm can benefit from holding an inaccurate market belief.     

差异化需求下考虑患者预约行为的医疗服务供需匹配方法

如何根据患者的差异化需求,撮合医生与患者双方形成合理有效的医疗服务供需匹配,是医疗服务运作管理中重要的研究问题。本文针对医疗服务中医生与患者的实际需求,提出了一种考虑患者预约行为的匹配决策方法。在该方法中,首先依据患者的预约行为及特征分类;然后,通过计算不同情形下医患双方的差异度,获得了医患双方的满意度矩阵;在此基础上,提出了匹配预约患者与医生的E-HR算法,并进一步构建了匹配剩余患者和医生的多目标优化模型,通过模型求解得到最优匹配结果;最后,通过算例说明了本文提出方法的可行性和实用性。     

A trading mechanism contingent on several indices

We introduce a trading mechanism where the execution of an order on a security can be made contingent on the relation between the clearing price of the security and the clearing price of one or several indices. A mechanism similar to ours, but limited to only one index, was implemented on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. We argue that it is in some cases crucial to make the execution of an order contingent on several indices. Our mechanism consists of a particular implementation of a double-sided multi-unit combinatorial auction with substitutes (or DMCS auction), which we introduced in an earlier article.     

广东省能源需求预测模型构建及实证分析

为了对广东省的能源需求进行准确的预测,首先分析了影响广东省能源需求的各种因素,构建了预测指标体系.在此基础上,针对能源系统非线性等复杂系统特征,结合粒子群算法和BP神经网络的优点,构建了改进的PSO-BP神经网络的预测模型,并通过主成分分析法对指标体系进行数据降维,以降低神经网络的规模和复杂程度.以广东省1985-2013年的能源需求数据进行模拟与仿真,并对2014-2018年的能源需求量进行预测,理论分析和实证研究表明,该方法能够很好的反映广东省能源需求的特征,预测结果较为准确合理.