具有Vasicek利率的风险过程的破产概率的分解(英文)

In this paper, it is assumed that an insurer with a jump-diffusion risk process would invest its surplus in a bond market, and the interest structure of the bond market is assumed to follow the Vasicek interest model. This paper focuses on the studying of the ruin problems in the above compounded process. In this compounded risk model, ruin may be caused by a claim or oscillation. We decompose the ruin probability for the compounded risk process into two probabilities： the probability that ruin caused by a claim and the probability that ruin caused by oscillation. Integro-differential equations for these ruin probabilities are derived. When the claim sizes are exponentially distributed, the above-mentioned integro-differential equations can be reduced into a three-order partial differential equation.     

相关带干扰风险模型的破产概率

本文引进了含相关类带干扰经典风险过程, 研究类之间的相关性对破产概率的影响, 主要研究类之间的相关性对其Lundberg指数的大小关系的影响.     

最优多期比例再保险策略的必要条件

研究最小化保险公司破产概率的最优多期比例再保险策略,给出了保险公司最小破产概率的一个递归表达式,证明了可用动态规划方法求解此类问题.在此基础上,我们推导出最优多期比例再保险策略的几个必要条件.     

从一道容易做错的概率题谈起

“4个可分辨的球 ,随机地投入 3个盒中 ,试求3盒都不空的概率 .”这是一道很容易做错的概率题 .比较典型的有下面两个错解 :错解 1　设Ａ=“三盒都不空” ,基本事件总数为 3 4 .有利于Ａ的基本事件数可按下面两步来计算 :第一步 ,从 4球中任取 3球 ,将它们每盒一球地放入 3个盒中 ,有Ｃ343 !种方法 ,这就保证了 3盒都不空 ;第二步 ,让余下的 1球随机地落入 3盒中任一盒 ,有 3种方法 .由乘法原理知有利于Ａ的基本事件数为 :Ｃ343 !3 ,故Ｐ(Ａ) =Ｃ343 !33 4 =89.错解 2　设Ａ=“三盒都不空” ,基本事件总数为 3 4 .有利于Ａ的基本事件数可从…     

约束最小二乘估计的优良性

对于线性模型y=Xθ ε,ε服从椭球等高单峰分布,未知参数θ满足不等式约束a′θ≥0,证明了在参数估计优良性的集中概率准则下,θ的约束最小二乘估计θ~*优于最小二乘估计θ.     

负二项分布类的条件概率封闭性

在研究只允许部分服务台进入休假状态的多服务台M／M／c排队系统时，我们发现了条件Erlang分布的一些有趣的性质，进一步研究我们发现相对应离散随机状态的负二项分布也具有很好的性质（概率封闭性．本文证明了一类负二项分布的概率封闭性．它们对导出复杂排队系统中离散状态下顾客等待时问分布及保险公司中破产概率上界的计算起着重要作用．     

带有重尾扰动项的非线性自回归模型

讨论在非线性自回归模型中平稳解边际尾概率与扰动项尾概率之间的关系. 证明了在保证模型平稳遍历的条件下, 一维平稳解的边际分布具有重尾概率性质, 并且与扰动项重尾概率指标相同.     

基于生存概率的保险基金最优投资策略研究

利用破产理论和随机控制理论研究保险基金最优投资策略,建立生存概率最大化的目标函数,得到最优投资策略满足的随机微分方程;在初始金逼近0时得到保险基金的最优投资策略的显示解;采用递推算法,得到初始准备金为任意值时的最优投资策略.     

Some new results on transition probability

In this paper, we study the basic properties of stationary transition probability of Markov processes on a general measurable space （E, δ）, such as the continuity, maximum probability, zero point, positive probability set,standardization, and obtain a series of important results such as Continuity Theorem, Representation Theorem, Levy Theorem and so on. These results are very useful for us to study stationary tri-point transition probability on a general measurable space （E, δ）. Our main tools such as Egoroff＇s Theorem, Vitali-Hahn-Saks＇s Theorem and the theory of atomic set and well- posedness of measure are also very interesting and fashionable.