延误休假且修理延迟的可修系统的更换策略

研究了修理工多重延误休假且修理延迟的可修系统,假设系统故障后均不能"修复如新",系统在准备休假期间故障的概率为q,系统延迟修理的概率为1-P,以系统故障次数为更换策略,运用更新过程和几何过程理论,得出系统长期运行单位时间内平均停机时间的表达式,并通过数值例子验证了存在最优策略,使得平均停机时间最短.     

知识型员工行为能力的构成要素与评价研究

行为能力对于解释员工绩效具有重要意义.本文以知识型员工为研究对象,通过规范的实证研究获得了知识型员工行为能力的构成要素,以此为基础构建了知识型员工行为能力的评价指标体系.根据指标模糊性的特点,将三角模糊数理论与FAHP的融合,提出了一种基于三角模糊数的FAHP评价方法.以DR公司招聘某岗位的知识型员工为实例,说明了本文提出的方法在知识型员工行为能力评价中的适用性.     

基于动态规划原理的平方套期保值策略研究

在自融资约束下研究了标的资产价格服从跳扩散过程时欧式未定权益的平方套期保值问题。假定套期保值者用与未定权益相关的风险资产和另一种无风险资产来进行套期保值,利用动态规划原理,得到了离散时间集上均方最优套期保值策略的显式解。文章最后通过对比分析不同期限、不同策略调整频率的欧式看涨期权的套期保值结果表明:(1)对冲头寸与期限具有相依关系,期限越长,头寸比例通常也高;(2)对冲头寸与标的资产价格呈同向变化,标的资产价格越高,可以持有的头寸比例也高;(3)对冲头寸与交割价格呈反向变化,交割价格越高,可以适当降低头寸比例。     

A flexible multicriteria decision-making methodology to support the strategic management of Science,Technology and Innovation research funding programs

Research funding programs are a policy instrument utilized by governments to influence the innovation process. They are usually elaborated, launched and managed by research funding agencies. In order to select the most adequate research projects, agencies often rely on the peer review process.This paper introduces a methodology to support funding decisions based on the peer review process. The methodology involves the use of a multicriteria decision model to support the assessment, evaluation, prioritization and selection of applications, under a multi-step decision-making process, which fits into a strategic management cycle within the agency. The Multiattribute Value Theory, being considered under a Value Focused Thinking approach, provides a basis for the construction of the multicriteria decision model. The good practices in peer review and also a logical framework for program management are considered by the methodology.A pilot study, presented in the paper, involved a retrospective implementation of a peer review process in the context of a program launched by the Ministry for Science, Technology, Innovations and Communications and the National Council of Technological and Scientific Development, in Brazil. The methodology allowed a clear distinction of roles. The agency staff in the role of decision-makers was responsible for making value judgments on behalf of the agency. The experts, in the role of committee members and ad hoc reviewers, contributed with their expertise by providing objective assessments. Such assessments served as a basis for evaluating the applications, characterizing the possible portfolios, and can be considered as data in future program evaluation studies.     

A difference equation approach for analysing a batch service queue with the batch renewal arrival process

We consider an infinite buffer single server queue wherein customers arrive according to the batch renewal arrival process and are served in batches following the random serving capacity rule. The service-batch times follow exponential distribution. This model has been studied in the past using the embedded Markov chain technique and probability generating function. In this paper we provide an alternative yet simple methodology to carry out the whole analysis which is based on the supplementary variable technique and the theory of difference equations. The procedure used here is simple in the sense that it does not require the complicated task of constructing the transition probability matrix. We obtain explicit expressions of the steady-state system-content distribution at pre-arrival and arbitrary epochs in terms of roots of the associated characteristic equation. We also present few numerical results in order to illustrate the computational procedure.     

An optimization approach to adaptive multi-dimensional capital management

Firms should keep capital to offer sufficient protection against the risks they are facing. In the insurance context methods have been developed to determine the minimum capital level required, but less so in the context of firms with multiple business lines including allocation. The individual capital reserve of each line can be represented by means of classical models, such as the conventional Cramér–Lundberg model, but the challenge lies in soundly modelling the correlations between the business lines. We propose a simple yet versatile approach that allows for dependence by introducing a common environmental factor. We present a novel Bayesian approach to calibrate the latent environmental state distribution based on observations concerning the claim processes. The calibration approach is adjusted for an environmental factor that changes over time. The convergence of the calibration procedure towards the true environmental state is deduced. We then point out how to determine the optimal initial capital of the different business lines under specific constraints on the ruin probability of subsets of business lines. Upon combining the above findings, we have developed an easy-to-implement approach to capital risk management in a multi-dimensional insurance risk model.     

Quasistatic frictional thermo‐piezoelectric contact problem

We consider here a mathematical model describing the bilateral frictional contact between a thermo‐piezoelectric body and a thermally conductive foundation. We model the behavior of the material with a linear thermo‐electro‐elastic constitutive law. The process is assumed to be quasistatic and the contact is modeled with a nonlocal version of Coulomb's dry friction law, in which the frictional heat generated in the process, is taken into account. We drive a variational formulation of the problem and establish the existence of its weak solution.     

Convergence analysis of modified iterative approaches in geodesic spaces with curvature bounded above

The objective of this article is to establish a new modified iteration process for nonexpansive mappings in complete CAT(κ) spaces. We prove strong and Δ‐convergence theorems of the proposed method in such spaces under some standard conditions. Furthermore, numerical experiments of non‐trivial examples are also provided to show performance and comparison speed of convergence with many previously known methods. Our main result extended and improved the corresponding recent results announced by many researchers.     

Piecewise linear processes with Poisson‐modulated exponential switching times

We consider the jump telegraph process when switching intensities depend on external shocks also accompanying with jumps. The incomplete financial market model based on this process is studied. The Esscher transform, which changes only unobservable parameters, is considered in detail. The financial market model based on this transform can price switching risks as well as jump risks of the model.     

Random locations of periodic stationary processes

We consider a family of random locations, called intrinsic location functionals, of periodic stationary processes. This family includes but is not limited to the location of the path supremum and first/last hitting times. We first show that the set of all possible distributions of intrinsic location functionals for periodic stationary processes is the convex hull generated by a specific group of distributions. We then focus on two special subclasses of these random locations. For the first subclass, the density has a uniform lower bound; for the second subclass, the possible distributions are closely related to the concept of joint mixability.