A novel method based on maximum likelihood estimation for the construction of seismic fragility curves using numerical simulations

Seismic fragility curves presenting some probability of failure or of a damage state exceedance versus seismic intensity can be established by engineering judgment, empirical or numerical approaches. This paper focuses on the latter issue. In recent studies, three popular methods based on numerical simulations, comprising scaled seismic intensity, maximum likelihood estimation and probabilistic seismic demand/capacity models, have been studied and compared. The results obtained show that the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is in general better than other ones. However, previous publications also indicated the dependence of the MLE method on the ground excitation input. The objective of this paper is thus to propose a novel method improving the existing MLE one. Improvements are based on probabilistic ground motion information, which is taken into account in the proposed procedure. The validity of this new approach is verified by analytical tests and numerical examples.     

Stochastic modeling for starting-time of phase evolution of random seismic ground motions

In response to the challenge inherent in classical high-dimensional models of random ground motions, a family of simulation methods for non-stationary seismic ground motions was developed previously through employing a wave-group propagation formulation with phase spectrum model built up on the frequency components' starting-time of phase evolution. The present paper aims at extending the formulation to the simulation of non-stationary random seismic ground motions. The ground motion records associated with N—S component of Northridge Earthquake at the type-II site are investigated. The frequency components' starting-time of phase evolution of is identified from the ground motion records, and is proved to admit the Gamma distribution through data fitting. Numerical results indicate that the simulated random ground motion features zero-mean, non-stationary, and non-Gaussian behaviors, and the phase spectrum model with only a few starting-times of phase evolution could come up with a sound contribution to the simulation.     

近断层地震动作用下地铁车站中柱减震效果研究

为研究近断层地震动作用下地铁车站中柱减震效果,本文首先从PEER 强震数据库中选取我国台湾集集大地震中典型近断层地震动记录,进行了近断层地震动频谱特性分析．然后,以某地铁车站为背景,分别建立中柱安装橡胶隔振支座和没有安装橡胶隔振支座的土-地铁车站结构相互作用体系有限元模型．在此基础上,选取4 条具有明显脉冲特性的近断层地震动记录和El Centro 波作为输入,对土-地铁车站结构相互作用体系进行了地震反应分析,对比分析了减震模型和原型结构的位移响应和应力响应等结果,探讨了近断层地震动作用下地铁车站中柱的减震效果．结果表明：近断层脉冲型地震动具有较大的加速度、速度和位移时程幅值,并有明显的速度脉冲效应,0.1~1 Hz 的低频成分丰富;在地铁车站中柱柱端安装橡胶支座后,改变了车站结构的传力机制,使得顶板的内力及变形不能有效的传递到中柱上,起到了非常明显的减震效果;中柱增设橡胶支座后结构整体刚度变小,车站结构侧墙内力和水平变形较原型结构有明显增大．     

Seismic behaviour of isolated multi-span continuous bridge to nonstationary random seismic excitation

This paper concentrates on the results of responses of a multi-span continuous bridge isolated with double concave friction pendulum bearings subjected to non-stationary random seismic excitation characterized by the incoherence, the wave-passage, and the site-response effects. The earthquake excitation is modelled as a non-stationary random process as uniformly modulated broad-band excitation. To perform the seismic isolation procedure, the double concave friction pendulum bearings which are sliding devices that utilize two spherical concave surfaces are placed at each of the six support points of the deck. The non-stationary response of the isolated bridge is compared with the corresponding stationary response in order to study the effects of non-stationary characteristics of the earthquake input motion. Solutions obtained from the stationary and non-stationary stochastic analyses for the isolated bridge to spatially varying earthquake ground motions are compared for the special cases of the earthquake ground motion model. The spatially varying earthquake ground motions are described stochastically based on an empirical coherency loss function and a filtered power spectral density function. The site effect is considered by a transfer function derived from one dimensional wave propagation theory. It is observed that the stationary assumption is reasonable for the considered ground motion duration.     

香港地区地震风险评价和设防区划

香港地区隶属于中国板内地震区中的东南沿海块缘地震带。港-九块体为晚中生代至早第三纪以来以持续稳定上升为主的块体, 块体活动性明显地低于其周边相对下沉的中新生代盆地。为此, 赋予港-九块体为最大可信震级M=5.5级潜在震源区, 而其周边中新生代断陷盆地则为最大可信震级M≥6.0潜在震源。从大陆地震构造成因的环境、潜在震源可信震级范围M=5.0～7.5和近源地震动饱和等三个方面的可比性, 结合中国大陆地震震源破裂尺度和地震烈度影响场, 所建立的反映中国地震构造和震源破裂及地震烈度影响场特点的PGA和反应谱地震动衰减预测关系式可用于香港地区。以50%概率时的中值对中国强震记录的对比, 本研究所提供的经验期望预测关系式, 能包络实际的资料。因此, 用此地震动衰减预测模式对香港地区地震危险性进行评估, 将会得到相对保守地震动预测值。通过香港地区基岩地震动危险性分析和计算, 参照中国大陆地震设防标准, 进行了基岩设计参数确定和区划。以年概率P=0.02、P=0.002、P=0.0004三个概率标准, 对应的地震动重复周期大约分别约为50a, 500a, 2500a的基岩PGA和反应谱, 作为香港地区基岩上构筑物和建筑物可选的基…     

单自由度系统的爆炸地震演变响应

提出了一个单自由度结构系统爆炸地震随机地面振动演变响应的理论分析方法。根据爆炸地震效应的特点 ,建立了一个地面运动激励模型 ,并以TNT炸药爆炸实验测试结果为实例 ,讨论了模型中相关基本参数的确定方法及其结果。在给定结构固有频率和阻尼系数条件下 ,得到了单自由度系统的爆炸地震位移响应功率演变谱和均方根位移理论解。与在一个混凝土基座上的测试结果进行对比表明 ,得到的理论均方根位移具有较好的预测精度。     

Efficient and accurate procedure for selecting ground motions matching target response spectrum

Linear and nonlinear response history analyses have become popular in seismic design and seismic performance evaluation procedures. The accuracy of analysis results depends not only on the accurate analytic models for structures but also on the proper selection of input ground motions. The purpose of this study is to develop a computationally efficient and accurate procedure for selecting ground motions considering the target response spectrum mean and variance, and the correlations between response spectra of different periods. In this procedure, a number of response spectra are simulated equal to the number of ground motions to be selected, using a Monte Carlo simulation. Subsequently, ground motions are selected from a ground motion library to individually match the simulated response spectra, using the proposed selection procedure. This procedure is computationally efficient and accurate in selecting a ground motion that best matches a simulated response spectrum and in determining a scaling factor for the selected ground motion. In order to further improve the selection result, multiple sets of simulated response spectra are considered. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed procedure are verified with numerical examples.     

Fragility analysis of bridges under ground motion with spatial variation

Seismic ground motion can vary significantly over distances comparable to the length of a majority of highway bridges on multiple supports. This paper presents results of fragility analysis of highway bridges under ground motion with spatial variation. Ground motion time histories are artificially generated with different amplitudes, phases, as well as frequency contents at different support locations. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to study dynamic responses of an example multi-span bridge under these ground motions. The effect of spatial variation on the seismic response is systematically examined and the resulting fragility curves are compared with those under identical support ground motion. This study shows that ductility demands for the bridge columns can be underestimated if the bridge is analyzed using identical support ground motions rather than differential support ground motions. Fragility curves are developed as functions of different measures of ground motion intensity including peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, spectral acceleration, spectral velocity and spectral intensity. This study represents a first attempt to develop fragility curves under spatially varying ground motion and provides information useful for improvement of the current seismic design codes so as to account for the effects of spatial variation in the seismic design of long-span bridges.     

非平稳地震动的双调制模型研究

地震动是工程结构地震反应研究与抗震设计的基础,要分析工程系统的性能,必须要把地震动作为随机过程来建立可靠的模型。本文通过对非平稳过程演变谱的研究,给出双调制函数,建立了双调制非平稳地震地面运动模型。结合双调制函数和三角级数法生成人工地震波,通过对人工波频率和强度的非平稳性研究验证了双调制模型的有效性。同时本文给出了双调制非平稳地震激励的结构响应虚拟激励算法,得到响应的时变功率谱。分析表明,该模型具有明确的物理意义,且更符合实际,为结构抗震可靠性分析提供了一种较好的地震动模型。     

设防烈度下非比例阻尼结构地震随机响应峰值区间估计方法

建立与抗震规范设防水准相一致的地震动随机模型,给出了非比例阻尼结构体系地震反应运动方程,推导了非比例阻尼结构体系分析的复振型时域闭合解和地震随机响应的闭合解.通过随机响应的峰值因子和变异系数获得了非比例阻尼结构体系的地震随机响应峰值均值和方差,提出了设防烈度下非比例阻尼结构体系随机响应峰值区间估计方法.计算31条实际地震记录的复振型时域闭合解,并与地震随机响应的闭合解进行了比较,算例结果表明随机响应峰值区间估计方法的合理性和有效性.地震响应区间分析方法将是工程抗震设计的一个重要方法.     

计算近场地震作用下隔震结构支座破坏易损性曲线的概率凸集混合模型

用凸集模型模拟隔震结构参数的不确定性,而用随机模型模拟地震动输入的不确定性,提出了计算近场地震作用下在考虑双不确定性因素时隔震结构支座发生破坏的易损性曲线计算新方法;计算结果将给隔震支座力学参数的设计提供参考;通过计算对比可知,若不考虑结构参数不确定性将低估隔震支座破坏的地震易损性;对计算实例中基底最大位移敏感度分析发现,隔震支座的力学参数(如屈服力、屈服后刚度等)对基底最大位移影响较大,上部结构质量的影响次之,而上部结构的刚度对其影响不大;此外,本文的研究内容也为考虑结构参数和输入地震动双不确定性因素的情况下,计算各类结构地震易损性曲线提供了一种新的思路和途径。     

爆炸地震动的反应谱拟合

本文提出采用拟动力试验方法解决爆破工程和防护工程中由于炸药爆炸和核爆炸地震动而引起的安全问题和结构抗震问题,并提出采用该方法时应解决的爆炸地震动的设计反应谱和爆炸地震动人工模拟的反应谱拟合技术。     

Stochastic seismic response of long-span structures

In this paper, dynamic responses of long-span structures subjected to the action of earthquake with realistic wave speed are analysed. The horizontal or vertical ground motion due to earthquakes is assumed to be a stationary stochastic process, and the seismic waves travel along a horizontal straight line. Expressions for calculating the psd(power spectral density) matrices of structural displacements and internal forces are derived based on three dimensional FEM structural models with the ground motion phase-lags taken into account. A numerical example is given which shows that it is of great importance to consider the effect of the ground motion phase-lags for long-span structures.This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

Comparison of near- and far-fault ground motion effect on the nonlinear response of dam–reservoir–foundation systems

In this paper, it is aimed to compare the near- and far-fault ground motion effects on the nonlinear dynamic response of dams including dam–reservoir–foundation interaction. Two different types of dams, which are concrete arch and concrete faced rockfill dams, are selected to investigate the near- and far-fault ground motion effects on the dam responses. The behavior of reservoir water is taken into account using Lagrangian approach. The Drucker–Prager material model is employed in nonlinear analyses. Near and far-fault strong ground motion records, which have approximately identical peak ground accelerations, of Loma Prieta (1989) earthquake are selected for the analyses. Displacements, maximum and minimum principal stresses are determined using the finite element method. The displacements and principal stresses obtained from the analyses of dams subjected to each fault effect are compared with each other. It is clearly seen that there is more seismic demand on displacements and stresses when the dam is subjected to near-fault ground motion.     

地震动速度脉冲对高温气冷堆核电厂地震反应的影响

为探讨近断层地震动的速度脉冲对结构抗震能力的影响特征,以某高温气冷堆核电厂结构为研究对象,利用有限元软件建立线性三维模型,选择4组具有速度脉冲特性的近断层地震动加速度记录及人工模拟的具有相同加速度反应谱而无速度脉冲的地震动时程分别作为地震动输入,对模型进行动力时程分析,对比在有、无速度脉冲地震动作用下模型的地震反应。研究发现,虽然反应过程中结构仍处于弹性阶段但是地震动的速度脉冲对结构的位移反应具有一定的不利影响,这一点与已有的基本认识不同。因此对于需要安装对位移反应较为敏感设备的高温气冷堆核电厂房,应充分关注地震动速度脉冲对结构反应的影响。     

强度参量双界限凸集模型及双调数值解法

采用非传统概率方法—凸集方法来考虑地震动强度的不确定性。提出了一个能直接关联反应地震动强度因素的双界限凸集模型 ,介绍了在该模型下求得最不利侧移响应和地震激励的双调数值解法。最后通过实际算例 ,验证了该模型算法的实用性。     

桁架拱结构在地震动双向多点激励下的反应分析

基于经验相干损失函数和《建筑抗震设计规范》定义的反应谱模拟了空间变化地震动,进行了空间变化水平向和竖向地震动共同激励下桁架拱结构的反应分析。数值分析结果表明,与一致激励引起的结构反应相比,考虑地震动的空间变化增大了桁架拱结构的地震反应,引起地震动空间变化的每一个因素对于结构反应都有重要的影响。传统的基于一致地震动和仅考...     

基于相位差谱的空间相关非平稳地震动场的模拟

地震动的非平稳特性主要是由其相位差谱决定的,相位差谱与相位导数之间存在线性倍数关系。根据相位导数的显式计算公式,从能量的角度解释了相位导数的均值大致决定了时程峰值的发生时刻,相位导数的方差决定了强震段的持续时间。在相关地震动场模拟方法中,首次将相位差谱的统计模型引入空间相关非平稳地震动场的模拟方法之中,利用快速傅立叶变换技术生成地震动场。表示地震动随机特性的随机相位谱利用相位差谱的统计模型生成,生成的地震动场不仅具有空间相关性,而且在时域、频域内均具有非平稳特性。     

青川县桅杆梁斜坡地震动响应监测研究

本文采用941B型超低频测振仪及G01通用数采仪,自2009年5月13～27日,在青川县桅杆梁监测到4次余震。对山体斜坡高程805m和875m的余震地震动峰值加速度响应监测结果分析表明：相对于805m高程, 875m测点地震动峰值加速度在水平东西向以及垂向均呈减小趋势,而在水平南北向体现显著的放大效应,放大系数可达7～8倍,其FFT主频值主要集中为2～4Hz低频值。分析表明,所监测的微—有感地震震中位于测点北侧的青川断裂上,沿地震波传播方向斜坡体具有显著放大效应作用。     

基于神经网络的核电厂设备易损性分析

核电结构的易损性分析是核电厂地震安全评估中至关重要的一环, 但是由于核电结构的复杂性以及考虑土?结相互作用SSI时较大的计算规模, 使得计算核电厂设备易损性曲线十分耗时. 为发展高效的核电厂设备易损性分析方法, 本文采用核电结构土?结相互作用分析的分区计算方法, 并利用有限的SSI分析结果建立神经元模型ANN代替有限元模型, 分别基于对数正态假定的回归法和蒙特卡洛法进行了设备易损性分析. ANN数值模拟包括了以下内容: (1)基于半偏相关系数选择最相关的地震动参数作为ANN输入, 并通过交叉检验建立神经元模型; (2)量化研究ANN数值模拟的预测不确定性, 其中包含了由于简化地震动输入引起的随机不确定性和训练样本缺失引起的认知不确定性; (3)基于ANN模型预测结果分别采用蒙特卡洛法和基于对数正态假定的回归法进行设备的易损性分析. 本文探讨了不同的地震强度指标以及土层材料的不确定性对易损性曲线的影响, 同时验证了回归法中对数正态模型假定的基本合理性, 为核电厂设备易损性分析提供了一种可能方向.