带有免疫和传染年龄的传染病模型

建立了带有免疫和传染年龄的传染病模型,这种传染病带有病原体Ⅰ或Ⅱ,病原体Ⅰ可发展为病原体Ⅱ,得到了无病平衡态全局稳定和局部稳定的条件.当病原体Ⅰ不发展为病原体Ⅱ时,得到了病原体Ⅰ类平衡态的稳定性依赖于病原体Ⅱ类的基本再生指数.     

Creep of polymer concrete in the nonlinear region

Two polyester-based polymer concretes with various volume content of diabase as an extender and aggregate are tested in creep under compression at different stress levels. The phenomenological and structural approaches are both used to analyze the experimental data. Common features of changes in the instantaneous and creep compliances are clarified, and a phenomenological creep model which accounts for the changes in the instantaneous compliance and in the retardation spectrum depending on the stress level is developed. It is shown that the model can be used to describe the experimental results of stress relaxation and creep under repeated loading. Modeling of the composite structure and subsequent solution of the optimization problem confirm the possibility of the existence of an interphase layer more compliant than the binder. A direct correlation between the interphase volume content and the instantaneous compliance of the composite is revealed. It is found that the distinction in nonlinearity of the viscoelastic behavior of the two polymer concretes under investigation can be due to the difference in their porosity. Submitted to the 11th International Conference on Mechanics of Composite Materials (Riga, June 11–15, 2000.) Translated from Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 147–164, 2000.     

Modelling and simulation of micro-well formation

Physico-chemical processes on the micro-scale require new modelling concepts because some effects become dominating that are negligible for macroscopic systems. This is illustrated by a new method for the production of micro-wells based on the placement of a small drop of toluene on a plate of polystyrene. After droplet evaporation, a micro-well is left. A mathematical model has been developed to understand the elementary processes of the micro-well formation. The model accounts for: (1) growth of the drop on the substrate, (2) evaporation process of the solvent, (3) dissolution of the substrate, (4) flow rate in the evaporating drop caused by the pinning effect, including the vertical velocity profile, and (5) increase in the concentration of dissolved material followed by precipitation. In the modelling and simulation process, it could be shown that the method of drop production also has a significant influence on the shape of the micro-wells.     

A perturbed risk model with dependence between premium rates and claim sizes

This paper considers a dependent risk model with diffusion for the surplus of an insurer, in which a current premium rate will be adjusted after a claim occurs and the adjusted rate is determined by the amount of the claim. At the same time, the diffusion is changed correspondingly. Using Rouché’s theorem, we first derive the closed-form solution for the Laplace transform of the survival probability in the dependent risk model. Then, using the Laplace transform, we derive a defective renewal equation satisfied by the survival probability. For the exponential claim sizes, we present the explicit recursion expression for the survival probability, by which we can exactly solve the survival probability step-by-step. We also illustrate the influence of the model parameters in the dependent risk model on the survival probability by numerical examples.     

Multi‐dimensional Lotka–Volterra systems for carcinogenesis mutations

In the paper we consider three classes of models describing carcinogenesis mutations. Every considered model is described by the system of (n+1) equations, and in each class three models are studied: the first is expressed as a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), the second—as a system of reaction–diffusion equations (RDEs) with the same kinetics as the first one and with the Neumann boundary conditions, while the third is also described by the system of RDEs but with the Dirichlet boundary conditions. The models are formulated on the basis of the Lotka–Volterra systems (food chains and competition systems) and in the case of RDEs the linear diffusion is considered. The differences between studied classes of models are expressed by the kinetic functions, namely by the form of kinetic function for the last variable, which reflects the dynamics of malignant cells (that is the last stage of mutations). In the first class the models are described by the typical food chain with favourable unbounded environment for the last stage, in the second one—the last equation expresses competition between the pre‐malignant and malignant cells and the environment is also unbounded, while for the third one—it is expressed by predation term but the environment is unfavourable. The properties of the systems in each class are studied and compared. It occurs that the behaviour of solutions to the systems of ODEs and RDEs with the Neumann boundary conditions is similar in each class; i.e. it does not depend on diffusion coefficients, but strongly depends on the class of models. On the other hand, in the case of the Dirichlet boundary conditions this behaviour is related to the magnitude of diffusion coefficients. For sufficiently large diffusion coefficients it is similar independently of the class of models, i.e. the trivial solution that is unstable for zero diffusion gains stability. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an exponential attractor

We give a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an exponential attractor. The condition is formulated in the context of metric spaces. It also captures the quantitative properties of the attractor, i.e., the dimension and the rate of attraction. As an application, we show that the evolution operator for the wave equation with nonlinear damping has an exponential attractor.     

ON NEWMAN-TYPE RATIONAL INTERPOLATION TO ｜x｜ AT THE CHEBYSHEV NODES OF THE SECOND KIND

Recently Brutman and Passow considered Newman-type rational interpolation to ｜x｜ induced by arbitrary set of symmetric nodes in [-1,1] and gave the general estimation of the approximation error.By their methods one could establish the exact order of approximation for some special nodes. In the present paper we consider the special case where the interpolation nodes are the zeros of the Chebyshev polynomial of the second kind and prove that in this case the exact order of approximation is O（1/n｜nn）     

面向远海岛屿的救助基地选址优化模型及其算法

为解决在远海海域选择岛屿建设救助基地的方案优化问题,建立了基于GIS和智能算法的双目标优化模型,采用自适应拉伸的拥挤距离计算公式,设计了自适应精英保留策略对算法进行改进,通过剖析决策者选择最优方案的基本原则,得到了性价比最高的优化方案。最后,以我国南海南沙群岛选择岛屿建设救助基地的方案优化为例进行分析,得到了较好结果。为验证文中改进算法的有效性,选取多个不同规模的方案进行分析比较,结果显示本文提出的算法在优化结果及解的分布性等方面均更优。本文研究为我国海上岛屿救助基地选址和在资源有限的情况下如何科学配置救助船队提供了分析方法。     

颤振分析中的特征值排序问题

颤振分析中判断颤振临界速度的重要依据是系统V-g和V-f图,即系统特征值随参数的变化曲线.在几乎所有商用软件及自编程序的输出结果中,有时会出现所谓的"窜支"现象,这给颤振临界速度和颤振穿越分支及耦合形式的判断带来很大不便.通过隐函数定理可以证明,除重特征值点以外,系统特征值连续依赖于系统参数变化.依据多元向量值函数连续性,建立对特征值的排列算法,给出系统特征根轨迹的正确曲线,再输出V-g和V-f图数据,从而避免"窜支"现象.编制应用程序,通过几个典型算例对算法进行了验证.该工作能够有效简化颤振分析的后处理工作,提高分析效率.     

Computing a closest bifurcation instability in multidimensional parameter space

Summary Engineering and physical systems are often modeled as nonlinear differential equations with a vector λ of parameters and operated at a stable equilibrium. However, as the parameters λ vary from some nominal value λ₀, the stability of the equilibrium can be lost in a saddle-node or Hopf bifurcation. The spatial relation in parameter space of λ₀ to the critical set of parameters at which the stable equilibrium bifurcates determines the robustness of the system stability to parameter variations and is important in applications. We propose computing a parameter vector λ_* at which the stable equilibrium bifurcates which is locally closest in parameter space to the nominal parameters λ₀. Iterative and direct methods for computing these locally closest bifurcations are described. The methods are extensions of standard, one-parameter methods of computing bifurcations and are based on formulas for the normal vector to hypersurfaces of the bifurcation set. Conditions on the hypersurface curvature are given to ensure the local convergence of the iterative method and the regularity of solutions of the direct method. Formulas are derived for the curvature of the saddle node bifurcation set. The methods are extended to transcritical and pitchfork bifurcations and parametrized maps, and the sensitivity to λ₀ of the distance to a closest bifurcation is derived. The application of the methods is illustrated by computing the proximity to the closest voltage collapse instability of a simple electric power system.     

"MANDELBROT SET" FOR A PAIR OF LINEAR MAPS:THE LOCAL GEOMETRY

We consider the iterated function system {λz-1, λz + 1} in the complex plane, for A in the open unit disk. Let M be the set of λ such that the attractor of the IFS is connected. We discuss some topological and geometric properties of the set M and prove a new result about possible corners on its boundary. Some open problems and directions for further research are discussed as well.     

On the Index of Differential Operators on Manifolds with Conical Singularities

The paper contains the proof of the index formula for manifolds with conical points. For operators subject to an additional condition of spectral symmetry, the index is expressed as the sum of multiplicities of spectral points of the conormal symbol (indicial family) and the integral from the Atiyah–Singer form over the smooth part of the manifold. The obtained formula is illustrated by the example of the Euler operator on a two-dimensional manifold with conical singular point.     

基于韧性度的低轨卫星通信网络抗毁性度量及优化

低轨卫星通信网络的抗毁性是描述网络安全可靠的有效工具,在网络体系结构设计和路由策略等领域得到了广泛的应用。根据低轨卫星通信网络中卫星在轨道平面内移动,需要不断进行切换的特点,从建立抗毁性测度模型以及网络抗毁性优化两个角度来评估和提高网络抗毁性,提出一种基于韧性度的低轨卫星通信网络抗毁性度量方法。通过对移动模型以及切换模型的结构分析,对每种结构以一定概率出现的低轨卫星通信网络,应用韧性度函数,求得网络在某个时刻及某一段时间段内的抗毁性,并针对切换模型的不足之处进行优化,用赋权韧性度来体现优化的效果,得到了优化后的网络抗毁性。以铱星系统为应用实例进行仿真,结果表明:任意时刻网络的抗毁性跟拓扑结构的韧性度值有关,并且是一种线性关系,即随着韧性度的增加,其抗毁性也增加。通过对铱星通信系统切换模型的优化,网络的抗毁性与平均抗毁性都得到了提升,说明本文所构建模型的有效性和实用性。     

Piecewise parametric polynomial fuzzy sets

We present a scheme for tractable parametric representation of fuzzy set membership functions based on the use of a recursive monotonic hierarchy that yields different polynomial functions with different orders. Polynomials of the first order were found to be simple bivalent sets, while the second order polynomials represent the typical saw shape triangles. Higher order polynomials present more diverse membership shapes. The approach demonstrates an enhanced method to manage and fit the profile of membership functions through the access to the polynomials order, the number and the multiplicity of anchor points as wells as the uniformity and periodicity features used in the approach. These parameters provide an interesting means to assist in fitting a fuzzy controller according to system requirements. Besides, the polynomial fuzzy sets have tractable characteristics concerning the continuity and differentiability that depend on the order of the polynomials. Higher order polynomials can be differentiated as many times as the order of the polynomial less the multiplicity of the anchor points. An algorithmic optimization approach using the steepest descent method is introduced for fuzzy controller tuning. It was shown that the controller can be optimized to model a certain output within small number of iterations and very small error margins. The mathematics generated by the approach is consistent and can be simply generalized to standard applications. The recursive propagation was noticed for its clarity and ease of calculations. Further, the degree of association between the sets is not limited to the neighbors as in traditional applications; instead, it may extend beyond.Such approach can be useful in dynamic fuzzy sets for adaptive modeling in view of the fact that the shape parameters can be easily altered to get different profiles while keeping the math unchanged. Hypothetically, any shape of membership functions under the partition of unity constraint can be produced. The significance of the mentioned characteristics of such modeling can be observed in the field of combinatorial and continuous parameter optimization, automated tuning, optimal fuzzy control, fuzzy-neural control, membership function fitting, adaptive modeling, and many other fields that require customized as well as standard fuzzy membership functions. Experimental work of different scenarios with diverse fuzzy rules and polynomial sets has been conducted to verify and validate our results.     

Forces of rails for electromagnetic railguns

In this paper, using electromagnetic theory, the equations for the total magnetic force on the rails are deduced. Besides this, the equations for the changes of the magnetic force along with time and the running position of the armature under jointed pulse operating current are presented. Then, the equations for changes of the bending stress and shear stress in the rail along with time and the running position of the armature are given. Changes of the magnetic force distribution between the two rails along with the running position of the armature and other parameters are investigated. The total electromagnetic forces on the rail under jointed pulse operating current are analyzed. Distribution and changes of the bending stresses in the rail are studied. A number of results are obtained. The results are useful for design and application of the railgun system.     

Peridynamics via finite element analysis

Peridynamics is a recently developed theory of solid mechanics that replaces the partial differential equations of the classical continuum theory with integral equations. Since the integral equations remain valid in the presence of discontinuities such as cracks, the method has the potential to model fracture and damage with great generality and without the complications of mathematical singularities that plague conventional continuum approaches. Although a discretized form of the peridynamic integral equations has been implemented in a meshless code called EMU, the objective of the present paper is to describe how the peridynamic model can also be implemented in a conventional finite element analysis (FEA) code using truss elements. Since FEA is arguably the most widely used tool for structural analysis, this implementation may hasten the verification of peridynamics and significantly broaden the range of problems that the practicing analyst might attempt. Also, the present work demonstrates that different subregions of a model can be solved with either the classical partial differential equations or the peridynamic equations in the same calculation thus combining the efficiency of FEA with the generality of peridynamics. Several example problems show the equivalency of the FEA and the meshless peridynamic approach as well as demonstrate the utility and robustness of the method for problems involving fracture, damage and penetration.     

多约束的多阶段积极投资组合模型及实证研究

构建投资组合时需要衡量其风险, 除了考虑组合本身的风险暴露, 还需考虑其相对基准组合的风险暴露. 再者, 确定组合权重时需要根据市场的规则加入合适的约束. 基于此, 为了较为完整地考虑现实投资组合面临的风险及交易约束, 将绝对风险(CVaR)和相对风险(跟踪误差)作为风险约束, 将交易成本、卖空限制和多元权值作为交易限制约束, 构建一个新的多阶段投资组合模型, 并利用动态规划和非线性优化方法进行求解. 最后, 利用上证50成分股中41只股票构建投资组合进行实证研究. 实证结果表明构建的多阶段投资组合模型能持续战胜基准组合且优于单阶段投资组合, 同时也表明模型考虑多元权值约束具有现实意义.     

ML Estimation of the MultivariatetDistribution and the EM Algorithm

Maximum likelihood estimation of the multivariatetdistribution, especially with unknown degrees of freedom, has been an interesting topic in the development of the EM algorithm. After a brief review of the EM algorithm and its application to finding the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of thetdistribution, this paper provides new versions of the ECME algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the multivariatetdistribution from data with possibly missing values. The results show that the new versions of the ECME algorithm converge faster than the previous procedures. Most important, the idea of this new implementation is quite general and useful for the development of the EM algorithm. Comparisons of different methods based on two datasets are presented.     

Finite element analysis of fir-tree region in turbine discs

Comprehensive 2D and 3D finite element analysis is undertaken of the fir-tree region in aeroengine turbine disc assemblies. The study examines the effect of the critical geometrical features, such as the number of teeth, flank length and flank angle upon the stress field in the disc. The two-dimensional finite element predictions are verified using photoelastic-stress-freezing technique. The study is further extended to account for the effect of the skew angle and the interfacial friction between the disc and attached blades upon the resulting contact stresses at the interface and through the disc thickness. The results reveal that aeroengine disc designers must treat the two-dimensional finite element results with caution. This is due to the fact that two-dimensional results do not account for the large stress variations at the contact region and through the thickness due to the presence of skew slots in the disc.     

Global well-posedness and stability of semilinear Mindlin–Timoshenko system

We study long-term behavior of Reissner–Mindlin–Timoshenko (RMT) plate systems, focusing on the interplay between nonlinear viscous damping and source terms. The sources may represent restoring forces, but may also be focusing thus potentially amplifying the total energy which is the primary scenario of interest. This work complements [28] which established local well-posedness of this problem, global well-posedness when damping dominates the sources (in an appropriate sense) and a blow-up in the complementary scenario assuming negative “total” initial energy. The current paper develops the potential well theory for the RMT system: it proves global existence for potential well solutions without restricting the source exponents, derives explicit energy decay rates dependent on the order of the damping exponents, and verifies a blow-up result for positive total initial energy.