A calibrated model of local food system of Hawaii: What are the economic implications of the state's food goals and policies?

We develop a fully calibrated positive mathematical programming model for Hawaii's local food systems—which captures the production and the consumer sides of the market. Then we use the model to assess two proposed policies—a general excise tax (GET) exemption on locally produced foods, and an investment in agricultural infrastructure. For the GET exemption case, our results indicate an economic gain of $118 per $100 cost. On the other hand, an investment in 1,200 acres of land injected to support local production may generate an economic gain of up to $357 per $100 annual cost of the investment. However, these estimates should be considered preliminary, and thus viewed with caution. Although the model is used to capture Hawaii's local food systems, we believe that our model is generalizable and can be adopted by other economies to assess their respective food localization policies. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Local food policies need to be based on quantitative terms instead of mere armchair speculation because often their potential outcomes may vary significantly.

• The current modeling framework demonstrates the potential of using positive mathematical programming (PMP) in capturing the intricacies of local food systems. However, this exploratory exercise should be viewed as preliminary in nature and the ensuing results were taken with caution because many important factors such as labor availability may have been left out.

• Thus, further model refinements are necessary to better capture the complexities of local food systems such as farm heterogeneity, availability of farm labor, water availability, and interisland transportation of farm products in the case of Hawaii.

     

Stable and unstable equilibrium states in a fishery–aquaculture model

We study interactions between fishery and aquaculture using a 3D generalized Lotka–Volterra model, where we assume that the aquaculture production may affect the growth rate in the fish stock and the productivity in harvesting. In addition, input demands from both marine industries may result in effort competition. We identify conditions for the coexistence of a unique equilibrium state inside the first octant of the phase space and equilibrium states on its boundary. Conditions for stability and instability of these states are also given, thus showing the possibility of having bistability. The equilibrium point inside the first octant is stable if the growth impact on fishery from sea farming is below the potential productivity in harvesting. In the complementary case, we have an unstable interior equilibrium, and we may then end up in stable equilibrium states on the boundary, where either the fishery or the aquaculture is wiped out. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• More empirical and theoretical research is needed to reveal types of interrelations between fisheries and aquaculture, and their importance for long run stability between the sectors.

• When designing policies for the aquaculture industries, managers should in particular be aware of possible long‐term harmful effects from aquaculture to fisheries.

• Increased areas for sea farming reduce the relative profitability of the fishery, and if the area increases above a certain level, this could wipe out the fishery.

     

Groundwater management: Waiting for a drought*

In this article we present a stylized model for optimal management of an unconfined groundwater resource when the threat of drought exists. The drought is modeled as a stochastic event that hits at an uncertain date and two benchmark management policies are investigated: (a) A policy of optimal dynamic management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) an economically optimal policy that accounts for the threat of a drought. We show that the optimal predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size of groundwater under policy b is larger than that under policy (a) Furthermore, we show that an increase in the probability of a drought gives rise to two counteracting effects: One in the direction of a larger predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size (a recovery effect) and one in the direction of a lower predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock (an extinction effect). We find that the recovery effect dominates the extinction effect. Recommendations for Resource Managers: We analyze two groundwater extraction policies that can be used when a threat of drought exists: (a) Dynamic optimal management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) dynamic optimal management taking the threat of drought into account. We show that the predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size of water should be larger under the policy (b) than under policy (a). This conclusion has three implications for resource managers:

• Current groundwater management should take future extraction possibilities into account.

• A resource manager ought to take the threat of drought into account in groundwater management.

• A buffer stock of water should be built‐up before the drought to be drawn upon during the event.

     

What is the Mathematics in Mathematics Education?

In this paper I tackle the question What is the mathematics in mathematics education? By providing three different frames for the word mathematics.

• 1.Frame 1: Mathematics as an abstract body of knowledge/ideas, the organization of that into systems and structures, and a set of methods for reaching conclusions.

• 2.Frame 2: Mathematics as contextual, ever present, as a lens or language to make sense of the world.

• 3.Frame 3: Mathematics as a verb (not a noun), a human activity, part of one’s identity.

After introducing the frames and examining their distinction and their overlap, I discuss their implication with respect to student-centered classroom, context, and culture.     

Common pool resources with support

We examine the role of support for coalition stability in common pool resource games such as fisheries games. Some players may not want to join a coalition that jointly manages a resource. Still, because they benefit from spillovers, they may want to support the coalition with a transfer payment to set incentives for others to join. We find that the impact of support on equilibria of this game is limited to games with three or five players. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Coalitions may be able to effectively manage common pool resources such as fisheries but such coalitions are often not stable due to free-rider incentives.
• We explore the impact of a transfer scheme that can improve this coalition stability which would lead to larger and more effective coalitions.
• Our results show that this new transfer scheme works only for cases where the number of players is small.

     

Artificial neural network‐based modeling of snow properties using field data and hyperspectral imagery

This study attempts to model snow wetness and snow density of Himalayan snow cover using a combination of Hyperspectral image processing and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Initially, a total of 300 spectral signature measurements, synchronized with snow wetness and snow density, were collected in the field. The spectral reflectance of snow was then modeled as a function of snow properties using ANN. Four snow wetness and three snow density models were developed. A strong correlation was observed in near‐infrared and shortwave‐infrared region. The correlation analysis of ANN modeled snow density and snow wetness showed a strong linear relationship with field‐based data values ranging from 0.87–0.90 and 0.88–0.91, respectively. Our results indicate that an Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach, using a combination of Hyperspectral image processing and ANN, can be efficiently used to predict snow properties (wetness and density) in the Himalayan region. Recommendations for resource managers

• Snow properties, such as snow wetness and snow density are mainly investigated through field‐based survey but rugged terrains, difficult weather conditions, and logistics management issues establish remote sensing as an efficient alternative to monitor snow properties, especially in the mountain environment.
• Although Hyperspectral remote sensing is a powerful tool to conduct the quantitative analysis of the physical properties of snow, only a few studies have used hyperspectral data for the estimation of snow density and wetness in the Himalayan region. This could be because of the lack of synchronized snow properties data with field‐based spectral acquisitions.
• In combination with Hyperspectral image processing, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) can be a useful tool for effective snow modeling because of its ability to capture and represent complex input‐output relationships.
• Further research into understanding the applicability of neural networks to determine snow properties is required to obtain results from large snow cover areas of the Himalayan region.

     

Geometrical methods for analyzing the optimal management of tipping point dynamics

Natural resources are not infinitely resilient and should not be modeled as being such. Finitely resilient resources feature tipping points and history dependence. This paper provides a didactical discussion of mathematical methods that are needed to understand the optimal management of such resources: viscosity solutions of Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations, the costate equation and the associated canonical equations, exact root counting, and geometrical methods to analyze the geometry of the invariant manifolds of the canonical equations. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Management of natural resources has to take into account the possible breakdown of resilience and induced regime shifts.
• Depending on the characteristics of the resource and on its present and future economic importance, either for all initial states the same kind of management policy is optimal, or the type of the optimal management policy depends on the initial state.
• Modeling should reflect the finiteness of the data.

     

Ginzburg–Landau equations on Riemann surfaces of higher genus

We study the Ginzburg–Landau equations on Riemann surfaces of arbitrary genus. In particular, we

• –construct explicitly the (local moduli space of gauge-equivalent) solutions in the neighborhood of the constant curvature ones;
• –classify holomorphic structures on line bundles arising as solutions to the equations in terms of the degree, the Abel–Jacobi map, and symmetric products of the surface;
• –determine the form of the energy and identify when it is below the energy of the constant curvature (normal) solutions.

     

Fundamental polytopes of metric trees via parallel connections of matroids

We tackle the problem of a combinatorial classification of finite metric spaces via their fundamental polytopes, as suggested by Vershik (2010).In this paper we consider a hyperplane arrangement associated to every split pseudometric and, for tree-like metrics, we study the combinatorics of its underlying matroid.

• •We give explicit formulas for the face numbers of fundamental polytopes and Lipschitz polytopes of all tree-like metrics.
• •We characterize the metric trees for which the fundamental polytope is simplicial.

     

Management of legacy nutrient stores through nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization,catch crops,and gypsum treatment

We develop a modeling framework, based on discrete-time dynamic optimization, to study the effect of legacy nutrient stores and soil nutrient dynamics on optimal nutrient management and agri-environmental policy in crop production. Three alternative measures are studied to reduce nutrient loss: reduced fertilization, nonlegume catch crop cultivation and gypsum amendment. According to our results, landowner can bring down excessively high phosphorus stocks causing environmental damage within decades, by simultaneous optimization of the nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers on the economic basis of profit maximization. Our results suggest that nitrogen loss abatement with catch crops is socially optimal, whereas the use of gypsum is well justified as a temporary measure on soils with high soil phosphorus levels. A dynamic tax-subsidy-scheme, which takes into account the current soil nutrient levels and field attributes such as soil texture, can enforce the socially optimal outcome. The welfare losses of the static steady-state-based tax-subsidy-schemes are increasing functions of the legacy nutrient stores and soil's ability to hold nutrients. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• We develop a modeling framework to study the effect of the legacy nutrient stores and the soil nutrient dynamics on the optimal nutrient management and agri-environmental policy in crop production.
• Nonlegume catch crop cultivation is a socially optimal long-term measure for nitrogen loss abatement, whereas phosphorus loss abatement with gypsum is socially optimal on soils with high soil phosphorus levels.
• A dynamic tax-subsidy-scheme, which is adjusted annually according to the soil nutrient stocks, leads to social optimum. Although this can be difficult to implement in practice, it can be useful in the derivation of the simpler, static tax-subsidy-schemes.
• If a gypsum subsidy is paid for those years, where the soil P level is above the threshold level for the gypsum application, the welfare loss of the static steady-state-based tax-subsidy-schemes is almost zero.
• Simultaneous adjustment of the N and P fertilizer rates enables the use of simple, static and soil-texture-ignorant tax-subsidy schemes, without a notable social welfare loss

     

Low‐density barriers for controlling plant crowd diseases: How far and fast can pathogens spread?

We explore numerically the possibility of controlling the spread of plant diseases characterized by relatively low dispersal (crowd diseases) through the introduction of a spatial barrier with low density of susceptible hosts. We use the diffusion approximation to Kendall's spatially extended version of the Kermack–McKendrick epidemic model and illustrate our findings within the context of a representative viral disease that affects cocoa trees. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MANAGERS:

• Our numerical results suggest that using low‐density barriers of hosts in crowd plant diseases might be an effective way of halting the spatial dispersal of pathogens. The introduction of these barriers may reduce the economic impact when compared with other methods of controlling the disease spread.
• Before using the model to approximate suitable sizes of barriers, it is necessary to execute an exhaustive assessment of the model appropriateness for any particular disease under consideration.
• Our results suggest that to improve the efficiency of low‐density barriers it is important to explore their use in combination of current alternative control methods.

     

Analysis of lettuce evapotranspiration across soil water

In this study, we evaluated the lettuce accumulated evapotranspiration (ET) across four levels of irrigation, using a nonlinear mixed‐effects model. The plants were grown in protected environments and monitored over 23 consecutive days. When the moisture of the substrate in the vessels reached 50% of their maximum retention capacity, the water levels were elevated according to four treatments: , , , and . The model appeared to provide a good fit to the data and showed that the estimates of the maximum amount of accumulated ET were similar for the three treatments with soil water deficit and lower for . The results of the study supported the idea that optimization of the ET of lettuce plants could be achieved through irrigation with deficit, also indicating that the economical use of water was the most efficient way to boost agricultural production. Recommendations for resource managers

• The continued growth of the world population will result in a decrease of quality and availability of water and also an increase in demand for food. Therefore, sustainability will depend on high agricultural productivity with rational use of water.
• Considered the most efficient technology for boosting agricultural productivity, irrigation is also the largest water consumer in the world. With any kind of irrigation in the vegetable production area, the water intake for the plants must be treated with great caution.
• Both a lack or excess in water can decrease plant productivity. The amount of water available in the soil should be enough to maximize production. It is shown that high levels of irrigation are not necessary for this.
• It is important to balance the amount of irrigated water for an optimal level, in order that the production has its the production is maximized and valuable water resources are not wasted.

     

Monotonicity and error bounds for networks of Erlang loss queues

Networks of Erlang loss queues naturally arise when modelling finite communication systems without delays, among which, most notably are

1. classical circuit switch telephone networks (loss networks) and
2. present-day wireless mobile networks.

Performance measures of interest such as loss probabilities or throughputs can be obtained from the steady state distribution. However, while this steady state distribution has a closed product form expression in the first case (loss networks), it does not have one in the second case due to blocked (and lost) handovers. Product form approximations are therefore suggested. These approximations are obtained by a combined modification of both the state space (by a hypercubic expansion) and the transition rates (by extra redial rates). It will be shown that these product form approximations lead to

• upper bounds for loss probabilities and
• analytic error bounds for the accuracy of the approximation for various performance measures.

The proofs of these results rely upon both monotonicity results and an analytic error bound method as based on Markov reward theory. This combination and its technicalities are of interest by themselves. The technical conditions are worked out and verified for two specific applications:

• pure loss networks as under (i)
• GSM networks with fixed channel allocation as under (ii).

The results are of practical interest for computational simplifications and, particularly, to guarantee that blocking probabilities do not exceed a given threshold such as for network dimensioning.     

Multifunctional land‐use value mapping and space type classification: A case study of Puge County,China

Land exhibits diverse functions under the combined influence of natural and human forces. A production–living–ecology functional classification system was constructed by integrating land, ecosystem, and landscape functions. The land functional value was calculated by systematically integrating ecosystem service value assessments. The primary and secondary functions, as well as combinations of different land‐use types, were determined using vertical and horizontal comparison methods. The production–living–ecology ranges were then delineated in Puge County, which is a typical mountain county in China. The production–living–ecology functions identified were well connected with the current land‐use types. The “production–living–ecology” space in Puge County showed obvious multifunctionality and agglomeration. The function identification system proposed in this paper integrated multiple methods, overcame the difficulty of direct quantitative identification of land functions. The methods used to map and quantify land function will enhance our ability to understand and model land system changes and adequately inform policies and planning. Summary for Managers

• The function valuation method constructed in this paper could be used to reflect the multifunctionality and importance of land use and provide guidance and a quantitative basis for regional development planning.
• The spatial classification results provided in this paper could offer a valuable reference for the land management department to scientifically formulate land use planning.
• Under the goal of creating a group‐type urban development pattern and constructing an ecological protection pattern in Puge County, the hotspot analysis results of this paper can provide decision‐making tools and alternative spatial plans.

     

Optimal threshold density in a stochastic resource management model with pulse intervention

Human activities and agricultural practices are having huge impacts on the development of fishery and land resources through different ways. To model such systems that involve harvesting, an impulsive model of natural resources with a stochastic noise perturbation element is formulated to study the relationship between (a) the maximal expectation of biomass after harvesting or fishing events and (b) the minimal expectation of pest biomass and the number of times pesticide is applied. Using a detailed analytical treatment, time estimation, and numerical demonstrations, we establish that the proposed mechanism is capable of maximizing fish populations at the end of a fishing season and minimizing pest numbers after a crop harvesting season once the intensity of the noise is relatively small. Investigations of the effects of different parameters reveal that theoretical predictions from the new stochastic model accord with those from the deterministic case. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Various measures can be implemented to manage natural resources, such as adjusting fishing quantity and intensity to maximize fish population.
• In the natural environment, population growth is inevitably affected by the environment noise. So it is important to understand the noise effect to maintain sustainability of resources.
• Investigated methods are useful to converse resources and can be widely applied to control pests.

     

Common knowledge revisited

We consider the common-knowledge paradox raised by Halpern and Moses: common knowledge is necessary for agreement and coordination, but common knowledge is unattainable in the real world because of temporal imprecision. We discuss two solutions to this paradox:

• 1.(1) modeling the world with a coarser granularity, and
• 2.(2) relaxing the requirements for coordination.

     

Mean curvature of hypersurfaces in Killing submersions with bounded shadow

Given a complete hypersurface isometrically immersed in an ambient manifold, in this paper we provide a lower bound for the norm of the mean curvature vector field of the immersion assuming that:

• 1) The ambient manifold admits a Killing submersion with unit-length Killing vector field.
• 2) The projection of the image of the immersion is bounded in the base manifold.
• 3) The hypersurface is stochastically complete, or the immersion is proper.

     

Evaluating impacts of fish stock enhancement and biodiversity conservation actions on the livelihoods of small‐scale fishers on the Beijiang River,China

Inappropriate development and overexploitation have seriously degraded aquatic resources in China. Stakeholders identified three fish stock enhancement and biodiversity conservation scenarios for the Beijiang River: S1, increased fish restocking; S2, no fishing season and habitat conservation; and S3, strict pollution control. Potential impacts of these actions on the livelihoods of fishers were evaluated using applied economic modeling. Baseline costs and benefits came from logbooks from 30 fishers and a survey of 90 households in three villages. The financial net benefit for a household was US$1583 (￥11,160) annually, representing a 142% and 387% return on capital and operating costs, respectively. Larger catches associated with S1 and S2 generated a net benefit of US$1651 and US$1822, respectively. Strict pollution control resulting in higher catches (+20%) and lower operating costs (?20%) would increase the net benefit by 15.9% to US$1835 annually. Pollution control would benefit other resource users and is a prerequisite for ecological restoration. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Stringent pollution control measures are essential to conserve aquatic biodiversity and enhance the livelihoods of fishers but will require considerable public and private sector investment.
• Enhanced fish stocks in the Beijiang River could benefit poor livelihoods but may not be sufficient to lift households out of poverty, aged fishers require government assistance to diversify their livelihoods, access alternative urban employment, and survive with dignity.
• Adopting the economic modeling approach presented here could enable responsible authorities to simultaneously evaluate fish stock enhancement and biodiversity conservation options.
• Broader application of the approach presented here could help ensure small‐scale inland fisheries are managed sustainably and aquatic ecosystems are restored and protected by 2020, in line with Target 6 of the United Nations’ Convention on Biological Diversity Strategic Plan for Biodiversity.

     

The structure of optimal solutions for harvesting a renewable resource

We consider the problem of optimal harvesting of a renewable resource whose dynamics are governed by logistic growth and whose payoff is proportional to the harvest. We consider both the case of a finite and an infinite time horizon and analyse the structure of the optimal solutions and their dependence on the parameters of the model. We show that the optimal policy can only have one of three structures: (1) maximal harvesting effort until the resource is depleted, (2) zero harvesting during an initial time interval followed by a subsequent switch to maximal harvesting effort, or (3) a singular solution, which corresponds to an intermediate level of harvesting, accompanied by the most rapid approach path. All three scenarios emerge, with minor variations, with finite and infinite time horizons, depending on the particular combination of parameters of the system. We characterize the conditions under which the singular solution is optimal and present suggestions for designing an optimal and sustainable harvesting strategy. Recommendations for Resource Managers :

• We have rigorously explored a standard optimal harvesting model and its steady states.
• We show that three different types of solutions may emerge: (i) maximal harvesting eventually leading to a complete depletion of the stock; (ii) maximal harvesting with a potential period of idleness leading to a positive stock; (iii) an initial phase of either no or full harvesting followed by a period of intermediate harvesting intensity leading to a positive stock (singular solution).
• With some modifications, similar results hold for a finite planning horizon.
• Which of these three scenarios emerges in the finite horizon case depends not only on the parameter values but also on the length of the planning horizon.