Groundwater management: Waiting for a drought*

In this article we present a stylized model for optimal management of an unconfined groundwater resource when the threat of drought exists. The drought is modeled as a stochastic event that hits at an uncertain date and two benchmark management policies are investigated: (a) A policy of optimal dynamic management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) an economically optimal policy that accounts for the threat of a drought. We show that the optimal predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size of groundwater under policy b is larger than that under policy (a) Furthermore, we show that an increase in the probability of a drought gives rise to two counteracting effects: One in the direction of a larger predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size (a recovery effect) and one in the direction of a lower predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock (an extinction effect). We find that the recovery effect dominates the extinction effect. Recommendations for Resource Managers: We analyze two groundwater extraction policies that can be used when a threat of drought exists: (a) Dynamic optimal management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) dynamic optimal management taking the threat of drought into account. We show that the predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size of water should be larger under the policy (b) than under policy (a). This conclusion has three implications for resource managers:

• Current groundwater management should take future extraction possibilities into account.

• A resource manager ought to take the threat of drought into account in groundwater management.

• A buffer stock of water should be built‐up before the drought to be drawn upon during the event.

     

THE QUALITATIVE CONTENT OF RENEWABLE RESOURCE MODELS

This paper analyzes the extent to which standard dynamic renewable resource models possess refutable implications. Both the steady state comparative static and local comparative dynamic properties of the standard model are studied. A unified framework is developed which enables one to analyze the qualitative properties of any standard renewable resource model. This is achieved by explicitly linking the local stability, steady state comparative static, and local comparative dynamic properties of the model.     

NATURAL RESOURCE EXPLOITATION UNDER COMMON PROPERTY RIGHTS

ABSTRACT. Renewable natural resources such as ground‐water, pastures and fisheries are often governed bycommon propertyrights in which members of a group jointlyown the exclusive use of the resource. We develop a formal model of a common propertycontract based on differential game theory and then use the model to examine (i) the incentives of individual users of the common resource; (ii) the resulting harvest and stock time paths; (iii) the local stabilityof the steady state; and (iv) the steadystate comparative statics. Moreover, we compare the qualitative properties of the common propertyregime to those generated under perfectlydefined private rights and open access. We show how common prop‐ertyownership of natural resources can generate rent and be a second‐best solution when private propertyrights are costly to establish.     

An infinite horizon mathematical programming model of a multicohort single species fishery

Fishery policy evaluation should take account of the initial state of the fishery and the population dynamics of the fish stock. Although multicohort bioeconomic fishery policy evaluation models have been developed, the results from these models depend on the choice of planning period and the desired state of the stock at the end of this period. In this paper it is noted that these limitations can be overcome by evaluating fishery policy over an infinite time horizon, and a mixed integer programming (MIP) model is developed for carrying out this form of analysis in a multicohort single species fishery. This new MIP model allows policies to be evaluated over an infinite horizon by incorporating results from a steady state fishery model into a multiperiod framework. The use of this MIP model in determining policies for reaching and maintaining a steady state is illustrated.     

Multiple Equilibria and Thresholds Due to Relative Investment Costs

A dynamic model of the firm is studied in which investment costs depend on the magnitude of the investment relative to the stock of capital goods. It is shown that in general nonunique steady states can exist which can be stable or unstable. It is possible that unstable steady states occur in the concave domain of the Hamiltonian. For a particular specification, a scenario occurs with two stable steady states and one unstable steady state. The two stable steady states are long run equilibria; which one of them is reached in the long run depends on the initial state. In case the Hamiltonian is locally concave around the unstable steady state, this steady state is the threshold that separates the domain of initial conditions that each of the stable steady states attracts. The unstable steady state is a node and investment is a continuous function of the capital stock. If the unstable steady state lies in the nonconcave domain of the Hamiltonian, this steady state can either be a node or a focus. Furthermore, continuity can (but need not) be retained similarly to the concave case, a fact which has been entirely overlooked in the literature.     

Expectation-Stock Dynamics in Multi-Agent Fisheries

In this paper we consider a game-theoretic dynamic model describing the exploitation of a renewable resource. Our model is based on a Cournot oligopoly game where n profit-maximizing players harvest fish and sell their catch on m markets. We assume that the players do not know the law governing the reproduction of the resource. Instead they use an adaptive updating scheme to forecast the future fish stock. We analyze the resulting dynamical system which describes how the fish population and the forecasts (expectations) of the players evolve over time. We provide results on the existence and local stability of steady states. We consider the set of initial conditions which give non-negative trajectories converging to an equilibrium and illustrate how this set can be characterized. We show how such sets may change as some structural parameters of our model are varied and how these changes can be explained. This paper extends existing results in the literature by showing that they also hold in our two-dimensional framework. Moreover, by using analytical and numerical methods, we provide some new results on global dynamics which show that such sets of initial conditions can have complicated topological structures, a situation which may be particularly troublesome for policymakers.     

Optimal fishery with coastal catch

In many spatial resource models, it is assumed that an agent is able to harvest the resource over the complete spatial domain. However, agents frequently only have access to a resource at particular locations at which a moving biomass, such as fish or game, may be caught or hunted. Here, we analyze an infinite time‐horizon optimal control problem with boundary harvesting and (systems of) parabolic partial differential equations as state dynamics. We formally derive the associated canonical system, consisting of a forward–backward diffusion system with boundary controls, and numerically compute the canonical steady states and the optimal time‐dependent paths, and their dependence on parameters. We start with some one‐species fishing models, and then extend the analysis to a predator–prey model of the Lotka–Volterra type. The models are rather generic, and our methods are quite general, and thus should be applicable to large classes of structurally similar bioeconomic problems with boundary controls. Recommedations for Resource Managers

• Just like ordinary differential equation‐constrained (optimal) control problems and distributed partial differential equation (PDE) constrained control problems, boundary control problems with PDE state dynamics may be formally treated by the Pontryagin's maximum principle or canonical system formalism (state and adjoint PDEs).
• These problems may have multiple (locally) optimal solutions; a first overview of suitable choices can be obtained by identifying canonical steady states.
• The computation of canonical paths toward some optimal steady state yields temporal information about the optimal harvesting, possibly including waiting time behavior for the stock to recover from a low‐stock initial state, and nonmonotonic (in time) harvesting efforts.
• Multispecies fishery models may lead to asymmetric effects; for instance, it may be optimal to capture a predator species to protect the prey, even for high costs and low market values of the predators.

     

MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF FISHERY STOCK RECOVERY: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGES

ABSTRACT. During the restoration planning phase of the natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) process, potential injuries to natural resources and services are evaluated in terms of the nature, degree and extent of injury so that the need for and scale of restoration actions can be ascertained. Injuries are quantified by comparing the condition of the injured natural resource relative to baseline (pre‐injury) conditions. The “Type A” procedures are used to quantify damages from smaller spills and rely on a standardized methodology and computer model to calculate injury and value of damages. In this model, fishery stock changes from injuries and resulting changes in user participation are not treated as dynamic. If true stock growth and re‐growth are indeed dynamic, then the Type A model is likely underestimating fishery losses. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the potential for such underestimation by comparing simulated stock and harvest losses under dynamic treatment and a static treatment that more closely represents the way stock and service losses are estimated under the current NRDA process.     

Population model with diffusion and supplementary forest resource in a two-patch habitat

A mathematical model is proposed to study the role of supplementary self-renewable resource on species population in a two-patch habitat. It is assumed that the density of forest resource biomass is governed by the logistic equation in both the regions but with the different intrinsic growth rate but the same carrying capacity in the entire habitat. It is further assumed that the densities of species population is also governed by the generalized logistic equations in both the regions but with different growth rates and carrying capacities. It is shown that the steady state solutions are positive, monotonic and continuous under both reservoir and no-flux boundary conditions. The linear and non-linear asymptotic stability conditions of non-uniform steady state are compared with the case of the model with and without diffusion in a homogeneous habitat.     

Joint determination of optimal safety stocks and production policy for an imperfect production system

In this article, we develop an imperfect economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ) model for an unreliable production system subject to process deterioration, machine breakdown and repair and buffer stock. The basic model is developed under general process shift, machine breakdown and repair time distributions. We suggest a computational algorithm for determination of the optimal safety stock and production run time which minimize the expected cost per unit time in the steady state. For a numerical example, we illustrate the outcome of the proposed model and perform a sensitivity analysis with respect to the model-parameters which have direct influence on the optimal decisions.     

Sustainable Yield Analysis in a Multicohort Single-species Fishery: A Mathematical Programming Approach

The concept of sustainable yield, i.e. the fish catch that can be maintained in the long run from a fishery in a steady state, is widely used in fisheries management. In traditional methods of sustainable yield analysis, based on the Schaefer model of a fish stock, the age structure of the stock is ignored. Approaches based on the Beverton-Holt multicohort fish population model take account of age structure but assume that instantaneous natural and fishing mortality rates are constant throughout the year. Using a fish population model in which this assumption is not required, a mixed integer programming model is developed for the analysis of a multicohort single-species fishery in a steady state. This new method of sustainable yield analysis is demonstrated using data for the western mackerel fishery. Comparisons with results from other studies of this fishery are presented.     

Catch‐to‐stock dependence: The case of small pelagic fishery with bounded harvesting effort

Biologic characteristics of schooling fish species explain why the rates of harvesting in pelagic fisheries are not proportional to the existent stock size and may exhibit no variation between the periods of fish abundance and scarcity. Therefore, the stock‐dependent nonlinearities in catchability must be reflected in the design of flexible fishing policies, which target the sustainable exploitation of this important natural resource. In this study, such nonlinearities are expressed through eventual variability of the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter that measures the sensitivity of an additional catch yield to marginal changes in the fish‐stock level. Using the optimal control modeling framework, we establish that each value of the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter generates a unique steady‐state size of the fish stock and the latter engenders an optimal fishing policy that can be sustained as long as the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter remains unchanged. We also prove the continuous dependence of the steady‐state stock and underlying fishing policy upon the mentioned “catch‐to‐stock” parameter and then focus on the analysis of the equilibrium responses to changes in this parameter induced by external perturbations. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Marginal catches of pelagic fish stocks do not react in a linear way to changes in existing stock level, and the latter is captured in our model by the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter . Each observable value of engenders a unique steady‐state stock size that defines an optimal fishing policy, which can be sustained as long as remains unchanged.
• The ability of fishery managers to detect variations in the levels of hyperstability expressed by the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter may help them to anticipate new equilibrium responses in stock evolution and to make timely adjustments in the fishing policy.
• Plausible estimations of the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter , as well as detection of its possible alterations, can be carried out within the framework of Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) approach where different data collected inside and outside the fishery are contrasted via the validation of a relatively simple decision‐making model (presented in this paper) coupled with other “operation models” of higher complexity.
• If the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter cannot be reasonably assessed (), the fishery managers may rely upon the lower bound of stationary stock size, which depends on economic and biological factors (such as the present and future economic values of the exploited fish stock, its marginal productivity, and underlying dynamics of biological growth).

     

Human mate choice is a complex system

From a psychological perspective, human mate choice has been viewed as a problem of identifying the individual cognitive preferences and decisions that explain empirical results such as similarity in attractiveness between mates and the right‐skewed unimodal marriage hazard curves for marriage rates. Agent‐based models provide a powerful theoretical tool for investigating this relationship, but until now have not considered the effects of local neighborhoods or mobility on emergent population dynamics. In failing to do so, they have effectively ruled out the population‐level complexity inherent in human mate choice. Real people live in physical space, and their interactions are constrained by their location in and mobility among physical neighborhoods and social networks. We developed a general model of human mate choice in which agents are localized in space, interact with close neighbors, and tend to range either near or far. At the individual level, our model uses two oft‐used but incompletely understood decision rules: one based on preferences for similar partners, the other for maximally attractive partners. We show that space and mobility can interact nonlinearly with these individual decision rules and nonspatial aspects of the population structure. In particular, local interactions and limited mobility decrease interpair matching and increase mate search time. We also show that it is too easy to fit various model configurations to the scant available data. More data and more specific predictions are required. Human mate choice is a complex system with properties that emerge from space, mobility, and other factors that structure social dynamics. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2011.     

A MIXED CONTROL PROBLEM OF THE MANAGEMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES

In this paper, we study the optimal solutions of a model of natural resource management which allows for both impulse and continuous harvesting policies. This type of model is known in the literature as mixed optimal control problem. In the resource management context, each type of control represents a different harvesting technology, which has a different cost. In particular, we want to know when the following conjecture made by Clark is an optimal solution to this mixed optimal control problem: if the harvesting capacity is unlimited, it is optimal to jump immediately to the steady state of the continuous time problem and then to stay there. We show that under a particular relationship between the continuous and the impulse profit function, the conjecture made by Clark is true. In other cases, however, it is either better to use only continuous control variables or to jump to resource levels which are smaller than the steady state and then let the resource grow back to the steady state. These results emphasize the importance of the cost functions in the modeling of natural resource management.     

COMPETITION AND COOPERATION IN A DYNAMICAL MODEL OF NATURAL RESOURCES

Abstract In this paper, we propose a model describing the commercial exploitation of a common renewable resource by a population of strategically interacting agents. Players can cooperate or compete; cooperators maximize the payoff of their group while defectors maximize their own profit. The partition of the players into two groups, defectors and cooperators, results from the players' choices, so it is not predetermined. This partition is decided as a Nash equilibrium of a static game. It is shown that different types of players can exist in an equilibrium; more precisely, depending on the parameter values such as resource stock, cost, and so on, there might be equilibria only with defectors, cooperators, or with a combination of cooperators and defectors. In any case the total harvest depends on the renewable resource stock, so it influences agents' positions. It is assumed that at each time period the agents harvest according to Nash equilibrium, which can be combined with a dynamic model describing the evolution of fish population. A complete analysis of the equilibria is presented and their stability is analysed. The effect of the different Nash equilibria on the stability of the fish stock, showing that full cooperation is the most stable case, is examined.     

BIOECONOMIC MODEL OF EASTERN BALTIC COD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NUTRIENT ENRICHMENT

Abstract The objective of this paper is to study the economic management of Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) under the influence of nutrient enrichment. Average nitrogen concentration in the spawning areas during the spawning season of cod stock is chosen to be an indicator of nutrient enrichment. The optimal cod stock is defined using a dynamic bioeconomic model for the cod fisheries. The results show that the current stock level is about half of the estimated optimal stock level and that the current total allowable catch (TAC) is about one‐fourth of the optimal equilibrium yield. The results also indicate that the benefit from a reduction in nitrogen very much depends on the harvest policies. If the TAC is set equal to the optimal equilibrium yield, the benefit of a nitrogen reduction from the 2009 level to the optimal nitrogen level would be about 604 million DKK over a 10‐year time horizon, given a discount rate of 4% per year. However, if a recovery management plan is chosen, the benefit would only be about 49 million DKK over a 10‐year time horizon.     

Optimal harvesting of a Gompertz population model with a marine protected area and interval‐value biological parameters

To protect fishery populations on the verge of extinction and sustain the biodiversity of the marine ecosystem, marine protected areas (MPA) are established to provide a refuge for fishery resource. However, the influence of current harvesting policies on the MPA is still unclear, and precise information of the biological parameters has yet to be conducted. In this paper, we consider a bioeconomic Gompertz population model with interval‐value biological parameters in a 2‐patch environment: a free fishing zone (open‐access) and a protected zone (MPA) where fishing is strictly prohibited. First, the existence of the equilibrium is proved, and by virtue of Bendixson‐dulac Theorem, the global stability of the nontrivial steady state is obtained. Then, the optimal harvesting policy is established by using Pontryagin's maximum principle. Finally, the results are illustrated with the help of some numerical examples. Our results show that the current harvesting policy is advantageous to the protection efficiency of an MPA on local fish populations.     

ENDANGERED SPECIES AND NATURAL RESOURCE EXPLOITATION: EXTINCTION VS. COEXISTENCE

A model of renewable resource exploitation under event uncertainty is formulated. The model is applied to analyze the situation in which excessive water diversion for human needs can lead to the extinction of an animal population. Special attention is given to uncertainty regarding the conditions that lead to extinction. The manner in which the potential benefit foregone due to the species' extinction (the “extinction penalty”) induces more conservative exploitation policies is studied in detail. When the extinction penalty is ignored, the optimal policy is to drive the resource stock to a particular equilibrium level from any initial state. When the extinction penalty is accounted for and the conditions that lead to extinction are not fully understood (i.e., involve uncertainty), an interval of equilibrium states is identified, which depends on the penalty and on the immediate extinction risk.     

WEAK AND STRONG SUSTAINABILITY,ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

ABSTRACT. To investigate the role of explicit and implicit assumptions in different models of weak and strong sustain‐ability, the Solow/Hartwick model of intergenerational equity with nonrenewable resources is gradually extended to include renewable resources, endogenous technical progress, and stock pollution. This reveals the fundamental role of endogenous technical progress for sustainable development, the inconsistency of implicit sustainability assumptions in various models, as well as the existence of a Hartwick rule for Daly's steady‐state economy. Moreover, it shows that the concepts of Solow sustainability and strong sustainability coincide as a special case of weak sustainability. The latter integrates economic and environmental concerns and aims at maintaining the welfare potential of an economy over time. It does not rule out economic growth by assumption. Rather, the analysis shows that environmental conservation and economic growth can be compatible with each other, without jeopardizing social welfare. Finally, the analysis shows that the discussion of sustain‐ability models cannot be restricted to the explicit differences that are usually pointed out by their authors and commentators. Rather, implicit assumptions must be made explicit.     

Parental care as a differential game: A dynamic extension of the Houston–Davies game

An interpretation of the conflict between male and female parents during the process of caring for their common offspring by means of Game Theory was given in Houston and Davies. [A.I. Houston, N.B. Davies, The evolution of cooperation and life history in the dunnock Prunella modularis, in: R.M. Sibly, R.H. Smith (Eds.), Behavioral Ecology, Blackwell Scientific Publications, 1985, pp. 471–487]. Mathematically, this model represents a static game with continuous strategy sets. Recently, this model was reconsidered in a dynamic discrete time framework which also included state dependencies [J.M. McNamara et al., A dynamic game-theoretic model of parental care, J. Theor. Biol. 205 (2000) 605–623]. In this article, we give an interpretation of the parental care conflict in continuous time by means of a differential game with state dependent strategies.