离散的SI和SIS传染病模型的研究

为了描述个体的死亡、染病者的恢复以及疾病的传染,引入了相应的概率.基于总种群中个体数量为常数的假设,根据染病者能否恢复分别建立了具有生命动力学的离散SI和SIS传染病模型.所得到的结果显示:它们具有与相应连续模型相同的动力学性态,并确定了各自的阈值.在它们的阈值之下,传染病最终将灭绝;在它们的阈值之上,传染病将会发展成为地方病,染病者的数量将趋向于一确定的正常数.     

高中数学专题研究的一个案例──关于沪闵路─春申路口红绿灯时间设置合理性的研究

一、专题的背景与分析 　　1. 背景 　　闵行区的沪闵路─春申路口是交通特别拥挤的交叉路口之一.家住莘庄地区的同学有一个共同的感受,在他们到校或回家路上必经的沪闵路─春申路口时常遇到塞车现象.……     

报童模型及ARMA预测在航空配餐问题中的应用

航班承载人数的不确定性,造成航空公司在配餐中利润的流失,现存的配餐模式存在较多的浪费.本文利用基于损失厌恶的报童模型和ARMA时间序列分析模型对深圳航空公司某航班的配餐份数进行了建模分析和预测,并通过对两种模型输出的比较,得出了长期预测与短期预测的模型应用理论.将实际的历史数据代人到模型中验证,其结果优于经验模式下的配餐盈利情况.本文所采用的研究方法和研究结果对航空公司的精益发展有建设性的意义.     

巧解一道"牛吃草"问题

"牛吃草"问题又称为消长问题,是17世纪英国伟大的科学家牛顿提出来的.典型牛吃草问题的条件是假设草的生长速度固定不变,不同头数的牛吃光同一片草地所需的天数各不相同,求若干头牛吃这片草地可以吃多少天.由于吃的天数不同,草又是天天在生长的,所以草的存量随吃的天数不断地变化.……     

大钟与六位密码

福尔摩西接到电话的时候正在翻看一本关于城中富翁艾伦王的传奇故事。艾伦王年少时靠贩卖廉价的小闹钟起家,经过几十年的辛勤努力,把自己的事业拓展成了最有名的钟表公司,是本市最有名的富翁。艾伦王年纪已经很大了,身体也不好。他的儿女众多,但是他们和艾伦王的关系并不融洽。大家都猜测他们对艾伦王的财富虎视眈眈。"喂,福尔摩西吗?"约翰焦急的声音从电话那头传过来。"是我。"福尔摩西回应道。     

Drucker-Prager准则可靠度解析

视岩体强度参数为正态分布随机变量,以可靠度理论为基础,推导了Drucker-Prager准则可靠度判别的解析表达式,并通过Monte-Carlo法和一次可靠度方法验证了其正确性.应用所得到的公式分析了岩体强度参数的变异性对屈服准则判别结果的影响.结果表明,强度参数的变异性对Drucker-Prager准则可靠概率的影响程度不尽相同,在变异系数较大的情况下,它们对可靠概率的影响显著,不可忽略.为岩体屈服的可靠度判别提供了一条新思路.     

导数在高考命题中的"五大"热点

导数作为大学的重要内容,进入中学数学教材后,给传统的内容注入了生机与活力,为中学数学命题的研究提供了新视角,新方法.由于导数是研究函数性质的一个很好的工具,它的用途十分广泛,它在解决函数、不等式、解析几何等问题有独到的功能.因此,近几年的高考正逐年加大对导数问题的考查力度,本文通过对07年全国各地高考题的整理和分析寻找命题规律,希望能对今后的教学提供一点复习思路.……     

也谈立体几何中的轨迹问题——从一道调考试题说起

2010-2011学年度武汉市部分学校新高三起点调研测试的一道试题引起了我的注意.原题如下: 在正四面体P-ABC中,M为△ABC内(含边界)一动点,且点M到三个侧面PAB,PBC,PCA的距离成等差数列,则点M的轨迹是 A.一条线段 B.椭圆的一部分 C.双曲线的一部分 D.抛物线的一部分     

股票收益率和新息的尾部估计

利用极值理论来考虑上证综指收益率的尾部.为了选择合理的超越门限,采用平均剩余函数和De-Haan矩估计相结合的方法.在学生t分布和广义误差分布的新患假设下,用GARCH和EGARCH新息的ARMA模型拟合指数收益率,并且使用极值理论的极大似然方法估计模型残差的尾指,估计结果表明收益率的尾指和模型的残差尾指基本一致.     

神奇的骰子

骰子在许多游戏中出现,特别是赌博游戏,当中蕴含了丰富的数学知识,引起了许多数学爱好者们的关注和研究.一个普通的骰子是正六面体,它的六个面分别为数字1,2,3,4,5,6,还有许多不同的骰子、不同的玩法,充满了神奇,但神奇的骰子背后离不开数学知识的支撑.本文将介绍三     

Modelling and simulation of micro-well formation

Physico-chemical processes on the micro-scale require new modelling concepts because some effects become dominating that are negligible for macroscopic systems. This is illustrated by a new method for the production of micro-wells based on the placement of a small drop of toluene on a plate of polystyrene. After droplet evaporation, a micro-well is left. A mathematical model has been developed to understand the elementary processes of the micro-well formation. The model accounts for: (1) growth of the drop on the substrate, (2) evaporation process of the solvent, (3) dissolution of the substrate, (4) flow rate in the evaporating drop caused by the pinning effect, including the vertical velocity profile, and (5) increase in the concentration of dissolved material followed by precipitation. In the modelling and simulation process, it could be shown that the method of drop production also has a significant influence on the shape of the micro-wells.     

Multi‐dimensional Lotka–Volterra systems for carcinogenesis mutations

In the paper we consider three classes of models describing carcinogenesis mutations. Every considered model is described by the system of (n+1) equations, and in each class three models are studied: the first is expressed as a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), the second—as a system of reaction–diffusion equations (RDEs) with the same kinetics as the first one and with the Neumann boundary conditions, while the third is also described by the system of RDEs but with the Dirichlet boundary conditions. The models are formulated on the basis of the Lotka–Volterra systems (food chains and competition systems) and in the case of RDEs the linear diffusion is considered. The differences between studied classes of models are expressed by the kinetic functions, namely by the form of kinetic function for the last variable, which reflects the dynamics of malignant cells (that is the last stage of mutations). In the first class the models are described by the typical food chain with favourable unbounded environment for the last stage, in the second one—the last equation expresses competition between the pre‐malignant and malignant cells and the environment is also unbounded, while for the third one—it is expressed by predation term but the environment is unfavourable. The properties of the systems in each class are studied and compared. It occurs that the behaviour of solutions to the systems of ODEs and RDEs with the Neumann boundary conditions is similar in each class; i.e. it does not depend on diffusion coefficients, but strongly depends on the class of models. On the other hand, in the case of the Dirichlet boundary conditions this behaviour is related to the magnitude of diffusion coefficients. For sufficiently large diffusion coefficients it is similar independently of the class of models, i.e. the trivial solution that is unstable for zero diffusion gains stability. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ML Estimation of the MultivariatetDistribution and the EM Algorithm

Maximum likelihood estimation of the multivariatetdistribution, especially with unknown degrees of freedom, has been an interesting topic in the development of the EM algorithm. After a brief review of the EM algorithm and its application to finding the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of thetdistribution, this paper provides new versions of the ECME algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the multivariatetdistribution from data with possibly missing values. The results show that the new versions of the ECME algorithm converge faster than the previous procedures. Most important, the idea of this new implementation is quite general and useful for the development of the EM algorithm. Comparisons of different methods based on two datasets are presented.     

Evaluating departures from fair representation

Computer–intensive estimates are introduced to evaluate departures from proportionality between the numbers of electors in a partition of a voting population and the numbers of representatives in the corresponding partition of the elected representation. At the first stage a pair of indices is proposed, one to evaluate the total strength of the departures and the other to indicate to what extent they are due to over–representation increasing (or decreasing) with the number of electors in a group. The properties of the indices are examined in suitably defined stochastic models which describe this type of over–representation. Since the values of the indices are strongly influenced by the distribution of electors in the given partition, a second stage of estimation is performed in order to get some [partition–free] information on the existence of a monotone size representation, and, if it exists, on its strength. The relevant transformation is based on intensive computer simulation in the introduced models. The methods proposed are applied to the results of the 1991 election of the Polish Scientific Research Council, which distributes funds among universities, scientific institutions and individual groups of researchers.     

Properties of Attainable Sets of Evolution Inclusions and Control Systems of Subdifferential Type

In a separable Hilbert space we consider an evolution inclusion with a multivalued perturbation and the evolution operators that are the compositions of a linear operator and the subdifferentials of a time-dependent proper convex lower semicontinuous function. Alongside the initial inclusion, we consider a sequence of approximating evolution inclusions with the same perturbation and the evolution operators that are the compositions of the same linear operator and the subdifferentials of the Moreau–Yosida regularizations of the initial function. We demonstrate that the attainable set of the initial inclusion as a multivalued function of time is the time uniform limit of a sequence of the attainable sets of the approximating inclusions in the Hausdorff metric. We obtain similar results for evolution control systems of subdifferential type with mixed constraints on control. As application we consider an example of a control system with discontinuous nonlinearities containing some linear functions of the state variables of the system.     

基于韧性度的低轨卫星通信网络抗毁性度量及优化

低轨卫星通信网络的抗毁性是描述网络安全可靠的有效工具,在网络体系结构设计和路由策略等领域得到了广泛的应用。根据低轨卫星通信网络中卫星在轨道平面内移动,需要不断进行切换的特点,从建立抗毁性测度模型以及网络抗毁性优化两个角度来评估和提高网络抗毁性,提出一种基于韧性度的低轨卫星通信网络抗毁性度量方法。通过对移动模型以及切换模型的结构分析,对每种结构以一定概率出现的低轨卫星通信网络,应用韧性度函数,求得网络在某个时刻及某一段时间段内的抗毁性,并针对切换模型的不足之处进行优化,用赋权韧性度来体现优化的效果,得到了优化后的网络抗毁性。以铱星系统为应用实例进行仿真,结果表明:任意时刻网络的抗毁性跟拓扑结构的韧性度值有关,并且是一种线性关系,即随着韧性度的增加,其抗毁性也增加。通过对铱星通信系统切换模型的优化,网络的抗毁性与平均抗毁性都得到了提升,说明本文所构建模型的有效性和实用性。     

Irregularly shaped space-filling truncated octahedra

For any parent tetrahedron ABCD, centroids of selected sub-tetrahedra form the vertices of an irregularly shaped space-filling truncated octahedron. To reflect these properties, such a figure will be called an ISTO. Each edge of the ISTO is parallel to and one-eighth the length of one of the edges of tetrahedron ABCD and the volume of the ISTO is 3/16-th the volume of the tetrahedron. The ISTO is symmetric about the centroid of tetrahedron ABCD and each face is symmetric about a centre and has an opposite face that is parallel and congruent. The area of the faces of the ISTO is not proportional to that of the generating tetrahedron.     

夜盘交易对我国农产品期货市场影响的实证研究

随着我国农产品期货与国际市场的联动性进一步加强,为防止相关期货产品的隔夜风险和价格跳水问题,对部分农产品期货实行夜盘交易制度。为测度夜盘交易制度是否有益于农产品期货市场朝着稳定、理性的方向发展,本文采用了适合刻画金融序列波动性的GARCH族模型,实证检验得出GARCH、GARCH-M和EGARCH模型能够高度拟合农产品期货的价格序列并显著衡量夜盘交易对于我国农产品期货市场的影响。研究结论如下:第一、基于GRACH模型实证结果,夜盘交易制度变量的回归结果显著,该制度能减轻农产品期货的价格波动,且其影响是显著的;第二、EGARCH模型的回归结果同样显著,分别对比不同样本期的EGARCH模型实证结果可以得到,夜盘交易的开放减少了农产品期货市场的非对称性,使得市场趋向于理性的方向发展。     

基于零售商过度自信的存货质押博弈决策模型

存货质押是中小企业短期融资的有效手段,而企业对需求的过度自信会影响融资企业和银行的决策,从而影响到企业和银行的预期收益。针对过度自信环境下的存货质押决策问题,建立过度自信零售商和银行的存货质押博弈决策模型,采用Stackelberg博弈分析期望需求和需求波动性两方面过度自信对零售商销售努力、订货量和银行质押率的影响。研究表明:过度自信零售商融资更为激进,过度自信程度越高,对资金需求越大,投入销售努力越高,采购量越大,预期利润与实际利润之间的偏差越大;在低利润市场环境下,质押率随着过度自信的增加而降低,在高利润市场环境下,质押率会随着预测精度过度自信的增加而增加,随着期望需求过度自信的增加而下降。     

On the Index of Differential Operators on Manifolds with Conical Singularities

The paper contains the proof of the index formula for manifolds with conical points. For operators subject to an additional condition of spectral symmetry, the index is expressed as the sum of multiplicities of spectral points of the conormal symbol (indicial family) and the integral from the Atiyah–Singer form over the smooth part of the manifold. The obtained formula is illustrated by the example of the Euler operator on a two-dimensional manifold with conical singular point.