Social network topology: a Bayesian approach

Elucidating the pattern of links within social networks is a challenging problem. Of particular difficulty is determining the existence of links in those groups that take active measures to conceal their internal connections, such as terrorist or criminal organizations where conventional social network analysis data-gathering techniques cannot be applied. Network representations of such organizations are useful, because they often represent a useful point of departure in thinking both about the potential capabilities of organizations and how to conduct effective measures to counter them. Developing an effective process for constructing such network representations from incomplete and limited data of variable quality is a topic of much current interest. Here, a method based on Bayesian inference is presented that probabilistically infers the existence of links within a social network. It is tested on data from open source publications. Additionally, the method represents a possible approach to dynamically modelling networks, as it is feasible to calculate how a network will reconfigure following an intervention.     

Cooperative game theoretic centrality analysis of terrorist networks: The cases of Jemaah Islamiyah and Al Qaeda

The identification of key players in a terrorist organization aids in preventing attacks, the efficient allocation of surveillance measures, and the destabilization of the corresponding network. In this paper, we introduce a game theoretic approach to identify key players in terrorist networks. In particular we use the Shapley value as a measure of importance in cooperative games that are specifically designed to reflect the context of the terrorist organization at hand. The advantage of this approach is that both the structure of the terrorist network, which usually reflects a communication and interaction structure, as well as non-network features, i.e., individual based parameters such as financial means or bomb building skills, can be taken into account. The application of our methodology to the analysis results in rankings of the terrorists in the network. We illustrate our methodology through two case studies: Jemaah Islamiyah’s Bali bombing and Al Qaedas 9/11 attack, which lead to new insights in the operational networks responsible for these attacks.     

Identifying indicators of chemical,biological, radiological,and nuclear (CBRN) weapons development activity in sub-national terrorist groups

Data collected on known terrorist organizations allow intelligence agencies to build a statistical database of features for each group and an observed level of development of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons. For the intelligence analyst, a statistical exploration of the structure of the multivariate data is helpful for determining which subset of features—and the relative contribution of each feature in the subset—best discriminate between levels of CBRN weapons development. The resulting function that is used to discriminate between CBRN development levels is called the ‘classifier’. Once the appropriate subset of indicators has been identified and a classifier developed, intelligence agencies will be better able to focus their information gathering and to assess the effect that changes in a terrorist group's features will have on their CBRN weapons development. Additionally, the classifier will enable the intelligence agency to predict the CBRN weapons development level of terrorist group where the feature set of the group is known but the level is unknown. In this analysis, we compare three approaches for building a classifier that best predicts CBRN weapons development levels using a training set with 45 observations; (1) heuristic pattern recognition approach that couples a weighted Minkowski distance metric with a nonparametric kernel-based classification method, (2) classification trees, and (3) discriminant analysis. Where possible, cross-validation is conducted on the data to ensure that the resulting classifier is not overly dependent on the training set. This initial analysis provides some interesting results and suggests a reasonable starting point for finding structure in the data as more observations are added.     

Using activity focus networks to pressure terrorist organizations

The predominant idea for using network concepts to fight terrorists centers on disabling key parts of their communication networks. Although this counternetwork strategy is clearly a sound approach, it is vulnerable to missing, incomplete, or erroneous information about the network. This paper describes a different and complementary application of network concepts to terrorist organizations. It is based on activity focus networks (AFNs), which represent the complex activity system of an organization. An activity focus is a conceptual or physical entity around which joint activity is organized. Any organization has a number of these, which are in some cases compatible and in some cases incompatible. The set of foci and their relations of compatibility and incompatibility define the AFN. A hypothetical AFN for a terrorist organization is specified and tested in a simulation called AQAS. It shows that certain activity foci, and in particular one combination, have high potential as pressure points for the activity system. The AFN approach complements the counternetwork approach by reducing the downside risk of incomplete information about the communication network, and enhancing the effectiveness of counternetwork approaches over time. Steven R. Corman is Professor in the Hugh Downs School of Human Communication at Arizona State University and Chair of the Organizational Communication Division of the International Communication Association. His research interests include communication networks and activity systems, high-resolution text and discourse analysis, and modeling and simulation of human communication systems.     

Selecting optimum maintenance strategy by fuzzy interactive linear assignment method

In the current competitive environment managers of manufacturing and service organizations try to make their organizations competitive by providing timely delivery of high quality products. Maintenance, as a system, plays a key role in reducing cost, minimizing equipment downtime, improving quality, increasing productivity and providing reliable equipment and as a result achieving organizational goals and objectives. This paper presents a new approach for selecting optimum maintenance strategy using qualitative and quantitative data through interaction with the maintenance experts. This approach has been based on linear assignment method (LAM) with some modifications to develop interactive fuzzy linear assignment method (IFLAM).     

Networks, Fields and Organizations: Micro-Dynamics, Scale and Cohesive Embeddings

Social action is situated in fields that are simultaneously composed of interpersonal ties and relations among organizations, which are both usefully characterized as social networks. We introduce a novel approach to distinguishing different network macro-structures in terms of cohesive subsets and their overlaps. We develop a vocabulary that relates different forms of network cohesion to field properties as opposed to organizational constraints on ties and structures. We illustrate differences in probabilistic attachment processes in network evolution that link on the one hand to organizational constraints versus field properties and to cohesive network topologies on the other. This allows us to identify a set of important new micro-macro linkages between local behavior in networks and global network properties. The analytic strategy thus puts in place a methodology for Predictive Social Cohesion theory to be developed and tested in the context of informal and formal organizations and organizational fields. We also show how organizations and fields combine at different scales of cohesive depth and cohesive breadth. Operational measures and results are illustrated for three organizational examples, and analysis of these cases suggests that different structures of cohesive subsets and overlaps may be predictive in organizational contexts and similarly for the larger fields in which they are embedded. Useful predictions may also be based on feedback from level of cohesion in the larger field back to organizations, conditioned on the level of multiconnectivity to the field.     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

A new paradigm for serious games: Transmedia learning for more effective training and education

Serious games present a relatively new approach to training and education for international organizations such as NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Although serious games are often deployed as stand-alone solutions, they can also serve as entry points into a comprehensive training pipeline in which content is delivered via different media to rapidly scale immersive training and education for mass audiences. The present paper introduces a new paradigm for more effective and scalable training and education called transmedia learning. Transmedia learning leverages several new media trends including the peer communications of social media, the scalability of massively openonline course (MOOCs), and the design of transmedia storytelling used by entertainment, advertising, and commercial game industries to sustain audience engagement. Transmedia learning is defined as the scalable system of messages representing a narrative or core experience that unfolds from the use of multiple media, emotionally engaging learners by involving them personally in the story. In the present paper, we introduce the transmedia learning paradigm as offering more effective use of serious games for training and education. This approach is consistent with the goals of international organizations implementing approaches similar to those described by the Army Learning Model (ALM) to deliver training and education to Soldiers across multiple media. We discuss why the human brain is wired for transmedia learning and demonstrate how the Simulation Experience Design Method can be used to create transmedia learning story worlds for serious games. We describe how social media interactions and MOOCs may be used in transmedia learning, and how data mining social media and experience tracking can inform the development of computational learner models for transmedia learning campaigns. Examples of how the U.S. Army has utilized transmedia campaigns for strategic communication and game-based training are provided. Finally, we provide strategies the reader can use today to incorporate transmedia storytelling elements such as Internet, serious games, video, social media, graphic novels, machinima, blogs, and alternate reality gaming into a new paradigm for training and education: transmedia learning.     

A quantum metric of organizational performance: Terrorism and counterterrorism

Political terrorism and insurgency have become the primary means of global war among states. Lacking comparable military and political means to compete directly with Western civilization, many failed states and tribes have honed the art of asymmetric warfare. But traditional models of organizations do not work under normal or these extreme circumstances, precluding realistic models of terrorism and a fruitful search among alternatives for potential solutions. In contrast to traditional models, we have made substantial progress with a quantum model of organizations, which we further develop in this study with the introduction of a case study of a normal organization in the process of being restructured. We apply preliminary results from our model to terrorist organizations and counter terrorism.     

Computational and mathematical organization theory: Perspective and directions

Computational and mathematical organization theory is an interdisciplinary scientific area whose research members focus on developing and testing organizational theory using formal models. The community shares a theoretical view of organizations as collections of processes and intelligent adaptive agents that are task oriented, socially situated, technologically bound, and continuously changing. Behavior within the organization is seen to affect and be affected by the organization's, position in the external environment. The community also shares a methodological orientation toward the use of formal models for developing and testing theory. These models are both computational (e.g., simulation, emulation, expert systems, computer-assisted numerical analysis) and mathematical (e.g., formal logic, matrix algebra, network analysis, discrete and continuous equations). Much of the research in this area falls into four areas: organizational design, organizational learning, organizations and information technology, and organizational evolution and change. Historically, much of the work in this area has been focused on the issue how should organizations be designed. The work in this subarea is cumulative and tied to other subfields within organization theory more generally. The second most developed area is organizational learning. This research, however, is more tied to the work in psychology, cognitive science, and artificial intelligence than to general organization theory. Currently there is increased activity in the subareas of organizations and information technology and organizational evolution and change. Advances in these areas may be made possible by combining network analysis techniques with an information processing approach to organizations. Formal approaches are particularly valuable to all of these areas given the complex adaptive nature of the organizational agents and the complex dynamic nature of the environment faced by these agents and the organizations.This paper was previously presented at the 1995 Informs meeting in Los Angeles, CA.     

Hiding in plain sight: criminal network analysis

The United States is faced with an increasingly complex criminal enterprise. Advances in technology, communications, transport, and economies enable a highly adaptive criminal element to hide in plain site. These advances provide criminal organizations with the same global boundaries and opportunities as legitimate organizations.     

Modelling ‘contracts’ between a terrorist group and a government in a sequential game

In this paper, we apply a sequential game to study the possibility of ‘contracts’ (or at least mutually beneficial arrangements) between a government and a terrorist group. We find equilibrium solutions for complete and incomplete information models, where the government defends and/or provides positive rent, and the terrorist group attacks. We also study the sensitivities of equilibria as a function of both players’ target valuations and preferences for rent. The contract option, if successful, may achieve (partial) attack deterrence, and significantly increase the payoffs not only for the government, but also for some types of terrorist groups. Our work thus provides some novel insights in combating terrorism.     

NETEST: Estimating a Terrorist Network's Structure—Graduate Student Best Paper Award, CASOS 2002 Conference

Since the events of September 11, 2001, the United States has found itself engaged in an unconventional and asymmetric form of warfare against elusive terrorist organizations. Defense and investigative organizations require innovative solutions that will assist them in determining the membership and structure of these organizations. Data on covert organizations are often in the form of disparate and incomplete inferences of memberships and connections between members. NETEST is a tool that combines multi-agent technology with hierarchical Bayesian inference models and biased net models to produce accurate posterior representations of a network. Bayesian inference models produce representations of a network's structure and informant accuracy by combining prior network and accuracy data with informant perceptions of a network. Biased net theory examines and captures the biases that may exist in a specific network or set of networks. Using NETEST, an investigator has the power to estimate a network's size, determine its membership and structure, determine areas of the network where data is missing, perform cost/benefit analysis of additional information, assess group level capabilities embedded in the network, and pose what if scenarios to destabilize a network and predict its evolution over time.     

The Role of Emotions in Multi-Organizational Decision-Making

This paper addresses two questions. (i) What is the role of emotions in decision-making? (ii) Can emotions be attributed to organizations, and is their role in decisions made between organizations the same as in decisions made between individual people? The answers given to question (ii) are yes and yes. The proposed answer to question (i) is based upon a game-theoretic approach, which considers how emotions may be of strategic benefit to game players.     

Incorporating the threat of terrorist attacks in the design of public service facility networks

In this paper, we consider the design problem of a public service facility network with existing facilities when there is a threat of possible terrorist attacks. The aim of the system planner, who is responsible for the operation of the network, is to open new facilities, relocate existing ones if necessary, and protect some of the facilities to ensure a maximum coverage of the demand that is assumed to be aggregated at customer zones. By doing so, the system planner anticipates that a number of unprotected facilities will be rendered out-of-service by terrorist attacks. It is assumed that the sum of the fixed cost of opening new facilities, the relocation costs, and the protection costs cannot exceed a predetermined budget level. Adopting the approach of gradual (or partial) coverage, we formulate a bilevel programming model where the system planner is the leader and the attacker is the follower. The objective of the former is the maximization of the total service coverage, whereas the latter wants to minimize it. We propose a heuristic solution procedure based on tabu search where the search space consists of the decisions of the system planner, and the corresponding objective value is computed by optimally solving the attacker??s problem using CPLEX. To assess the quality of the solutions produced by the tabu search (TS) heuristic, we also develop an exhaustive enumeration method, which explores all the possible combinations of opening new facilities, relocating existing ones, and protecting them. Since its time complexity is exponential, it can only be used for relatively small instances. Therefore, to be used as a benchmark method, we also implement a hill climbing procedure employed with the same type of moves as the TS heuristic. Besides, we carry out a sensitivity analysis on some of the problem parameters to investigate their effect on the solution characteristics.     

The timing and deterrence of terrorist attacks due to exogenous dynamics

In this paper, we develop a model for the timing and deterrence of terrorist attacks due to exogenous dynamics. The defender moves first and the attacker second in a two-stage game which is repeated over T periods. We study the effects of dynamics of several critical components of counter-terrorism games, including the unit defence costs (eg, immediately after an attack, the defender would easily acquire defensive funding), unit attack costs (eg, the attacker may accumulate resources as time goes), and the asset valuation (eg, the asset valuation may change over time). We study deterministic dynamics and conduct simulations using random dynamics. We determine the timing of terrorist attacks and how these can be deterred.     

Autodetection of a Target by Eye Movement

Locating an unknown object position in a map by information stored in the unconscious mind is important from practical point of view. Locating captives, bomb, or terrorist secret bases by interrogation is problem that the intelligent agencies face daily. The person interrogated may have the desired information stored in unconscious or may not know it at all. In this article, we will present a novel way of retrieving the object location based on eye movement. The technique is based on a Bayesian mathematical approach to localization, in which measured count rates of eye fixation and duration, the probability of the location of the target is correlated with the count rate and drops as the distance increases from the fixation location. We focused on the discrete model and then generalized it to continuous model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 452–459, 2016     

Using the Viable System Model (VSM) to structure information processing complexity in disaster response

Earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding and terrorist attacks continue to threaten our society and, when the worst happens, lives depend on different agencies to manage the response. The literature shows that there is significant potential for operational research (OR) to aid disaster management and that, whilst some of this potential has been delivered, there is more that OR can contribute. In particular, OR can provide detailed support to analysing the complexity of information processing – an essential topic as failure could cause response agencies to act on low quality information or act too slowly – putting responders and victims at risk. However, there is a gap in methods for analysing information processing whilst delivering rapid response. This paper explores how OR can fill this gap through taking a Viable System Model (VSM) approach to analyse information processing. It contributes to the OR literature by showing how VSM can support the analysis of information processing as well as how the OR modelling technique can be further strengthened to facilitate the task.     

Graceful reassignment of excessively long communications paths in networks

Modern broadband telecommunications networks transport diverse classes of traffic through flexible end-to-end communications paths. For instance, Internet Protocol (IP) networks with Multi-Protocol Label Switching (MPLS) carry traffic through label switched paths. These flexible paths are often changed in real, or near-real, time in response to congestion and failures detected in the network. As a result, over time, some of these communications paths become excessively long (referred to as out-of-kilter), leading to poor service performance and waste of network resources. An effective reassignment scheme may require reassignment of communications paths with acceptable length (referred to as in-kilter) in order to generate spare capacity on certain links for the out-of-kilter paths. A graceful reassignment solution provides an ordered sequence of reassignments that satisfies the following: (i) the total number of reassigned communications paths does not exceed a specified limit, (ii) no temporary capacity violations are incurred on any network link during the execution of the sequence of reassignments (reassignments are executed sequentially, one at a time), (iii) a communications path is reassigned only as a unit without being split among multiple alternate routes (iv) all reassigned communications paths will be in-kilter, (v) none of the reassignments of communications paths that were originally in-kilter can be excluded from the specified solution without resulting in some capacity violation, and (vi) the sequence of reassignments approximately optimizes a predefined objective, such as maximizing the number of reassigned out-of-kilter communications paths or maximizing the total load reassigned from out-of-kilter communications paths. The resulting problem is formulated as a multi-period, multi-commodity network flow problem with integer variables. We present a search heuristic that takes advantage of certain problem properties to find subsequences of reassignments that become part of the solution, without performing an exhaustive search. Each subsequence reassigns at least one out-of-kilter communication path.     

Hybrid defensive resource allocations in the face of partially strategic attackers in a sequential defender–attacker game

Many models have been developed to study homeland security games between governments (defender) and terrorists (attacker, adversary, enemy), with the limiting assumption of the terrorists being rational or strategic. In this paper, we develop a novel hybrid model in which a centralized government allocates defensive resources among multiple potential targets to minimize total expected loss, in the face of a terrorist being either strategic or non-strategic. The attack probabilities of a strategic terrorist are endogenously determined in the model, while the attack probabilities of a non-strategic terrorist are exogenously provided. We study the robustness of defensive resource allocations by comparing the government’s total expected losses when: (a) the government knows the probability that the terrorist is strategic; (b) the government falsely believes that the terrorist is fully strategic, when the terrorist could be non-strategic; and (c) the government falsely believes that the terrorist is fully non-strategic, when the terrorist could be strategic. Besides providing six theorems to highlight the general results, we find that game models are generally preferred to non-game model even when the probability of a non-strategic terrorist is significantly greater than 50%. We conclude that defensive resource allocations based on game-theoretic models would not incur too much additional expected loss and thus more preferred, as compared to non-game-theoretic models.