Social network topology: a Bayesian approach

Elucidating the pattern of links within social networks is a challenging problem. Of particular difficulty is determining the existence of links in those groups that take active measures to conceal their internal connections, such as terrorist or criminal organizations where conventional social network analysis data-gathering techniques cannot be applied. Network representations of such organizations are useful, because they often represent a useful point of departure in thinking both about the potential capabilities of organizations and how to conduct effective measures to counter them. Developing an effective process for constructing such network representations from incomplete and limited data of variable quality is a topic of much current interest. Here, a method based on Bayesian inference is presented that probabilistically infers the existence of links within a social network. It is tested on data from open source publications. Additionally, the method represents a possible approach to dynamically modelling networks, as it is feasible to calculate how a network will reconfigure following an intervention.