兼具生产与消费功能的政府开支模型

本文研究了兼具生产与消费功能的政府开支模型 ,对这个模型进行了均衡分析与动态分析 ,由此得到了四个相关的例题 .证明了本模型是内生模型 ,经济增长与折现率和相对风险厌恶系数负相关 ,以及均衡的不稳定性 .并与只考虑一种开支的AK模型做了比较 ,得到一些特定性的结论 .     

带干扰的连续型风险模型

本文先引入带干扰的双复合poisson风险模型,并利用正态近似和平移伽玛近似,将其推广为带干扰的连续型风险模型,最终得到破产概率公式及它的一个上界.     

On the confidence preferences model

In this paper we study the model of decision under uncertainty consistent with confidence preferences. In that model, a decision maker held beliefs represented by a fuzzy set of priors and tastes captured by a standard affine utility index on consequences. First, we find some interesting properties concerning the well-known maxmin expected utility model, taking into account the point of view of the confidence preferences model. Further, we provide new examples of preferences that capture ambiguity-averse attitudes weaker than ambiguity attitudes featured by maxmin expected utility theory. Finally, we discuss the axiomatic foundations for the confidence preferences model with optimistic behavior.     

Global convergence of a kinetic model of chemotaxis to a perturbed Keller–Segel model

We consider a class of kinetic models of chemotaxis with two positive non-dimensional parameters coupled to a parabolic equation of the chemo-attractant. If both parameters are set equal zero, we have the classical Keller–Segel model for chemotaxis. We prove global existence of solutions of this two-parameters kinetic model and prove convergence of this model to models of chemotaxis with global existence when one of these two parameters is set equal zero. In one case, we find as a limit model a kinetic model of chemotaxis while in the other case we find a perturbed Keller–Segel model with global existence of solutions.     

An inverse finance problem for estimation of the volatility

Black-Scholes model, as a base model for pricing in derivatives markets has some deficiencies, such as ignoring market jumps, and considering market volatility as a constant factor. In this article, we introduce a pricing model for European-Options under jump-diffusion underlying asset. Then, using some appropriate numerical methods we try to solve this model with integral term, and terms including derivative. Finally, considering volatility as an unknown parameter, we try to estimate it by using our proposed model. For the purpose of estimating volatility, in this article, we utilize inverse problem, in which inverse problem model is first defined, and then volatility is estimated using minimization function with Tikhonov regularization.     

中等收入定位与人口度量模型研究

我国正处于经济转型期和收入分配格局的重要调整期,监控收入分配格局的变化具有重大意义.首先,针对中等收入定位与人口度量模型研究,构建新的洛伦兹模型L(p)=[1-(1-p)~αe~(-βp)][1-(1-p)~γe~(ηp)],与现有的经典洛伦兹模型做比较,拟合精度最优.其次,针对收入空间法和入口空间法的缺陷,给出相应解决对策.最后,提出中等收入人群的新定义,在此基础上构建了中等人口收入效用指数模型.     

Dynamical study of fractional order differential equations of predator‐pest models

To explore the impact of pest‐control strategy through a fractional derivative, we consider three predator‐prey systems by simple modification of Rosenzweig‐MacArthur model. First, we consider fractional‐order Rosenzweig‐MacArthur model. Allee threshold phenomena into pest population is considered for the second case. Finally, we consider additional food to the predator and harvesting in prey population. The main objective of the present investigation is to observe which model is most suitable for the pest control. To achieve this goal, we perform the local stability analysis of the equilibrium points and observe the basic dynamical properties of all the systems. We observe fractional‐order system has the ability to stabilize Rosenzweig‐MacArthur model with low pest density from oscillatory state. In the numerical simulations, we focus on the bistable regions of the second and third model, and we also observe the effect of the fractional order α throughout the stability region of the system. For the third model, we observe a saddle‐node bifurcation due to the additional food and Allee effect to the pest densities. Also, we numerically plot two parameter bifurcation diagram with respect to the harvesting parameter and fractional order of the system. We finally conclude that fractional‐order Rosenzweig‐MacArthur model and the modified Rosenzweig‐MacArthur model with additional food for the predator and harvested pest population are more suitable models for the pest management.     

Dynamical properties of a stage structured three-species model with intra-guild predation

This paper considers a stage-structured three species model with intra-guild predation (IGP). First, we show local and global stability of IGP model. It is known that introduction of IGP in tritrophic food chain can destabilize the system. So in order to ensure survival of all species for all future time, we show a necessary and sufficient condition for permanence of IGP model. Next, we consider the IGP model with a stage structure for predator. The model uses time delay to express a maturation period and a through-stage survival rate for the predator. By using stability switch criteria which can provide practical guidelines that combine graphical information with analytical work, we can show that the delay can stabilize the IGP model.     

A minimax distribution-free procedure for a newsvendor problem with free shipping

In this paper, we study the optimal policies of retailers who operate their inventory with a single period model (i.e., newsvendor model) under a free shipping offer where a fixed shipping fee is exempted if an order quantity is greater than or equal to a given minimum quantity. Zhou et al. (2009) have explored this model, and we further investigate their analysis for the optimal ordering policies which they did not sufficiently develop. Based on the investigation, we extend the base model in order to deal with the practically important aspect of inventory management when the exact distribution function of demand is not available. We incorporate the aspect into the base model and present the optimal policies for the extended model with a numerical example. Finally, we conduct extensive numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of the extended model and analyze the impacts of minimum free shipping quantity and the fixed shipping fee on the performance.     

中国股票市场风险的实证分析研究

本文从实证角度说明了上证指数和深证成份指数存在着GARCH现象 ,并建立了沪、深两市股指波动率的IGARCH(1,1) M模型与EGARCH(1,1) M模型。将估计的IGARCH(1,1) M模型与EGARCH(1,1) M模型比较得出 ,对上证指数的波动率 ,IGARCH(1,1) M模型与EGARCH(1,1) M模型的模拟效果基本相同 ,而对深证成份指数的波动率 ,IGARCH M模型要略优于EGARCH M模型。同时还对两市的股指收益的波动率进行了预测分析     

基于多角度的我国房地产行业数学模型的建立与分析

房地产业在我国国民经济中起着重要的作用,通过建立数学模型,从多个角度研究我国的房地产行业的性质与发展态势.首先,建立了基于联立方程组的住房的供给和需求模型,并结合蛛网模型进行分析,发现我国房地产目前处于一个非均衡的阶段;接着,建立了基于VAR模型的房地产行业和国民经济13个主要其他行业关系模型,找到了与房地产业互相影响的产业;再接着建立了基于组合权重的GC-TOSIS法的我国房地产行业态势分析模型,得出近几年房地产的态势不太乐观的结论;并通过态势分析模型得到我国房地产的经济发展情况,并引入可持续发展指数,建立了基于离散Hopfield神经网络的房地产行业可持续发展模型,得到我国房地产行业可持续发展程度以及可持续发展的等级正在逐渐增高.最后,结合以上四个模型,综合分析我国房地产的各个方面的发展趋势,并提供了可行性建议.     

我国房地产行业问题研究

结合数学、计量经济学和国民经济核算等方面的知识,分别从四个方面系统地研究了房地产行业的相关问题,首先,考虑到我国房地产市场存在地区差异性,利用地理加权回归方法(GWR)分别建立房地产行业需求和供给模型来反映该行业市场供需状况;其次,基于VAR模型分区域建立有效的房地产行业定价模型对未来房价走向进行预测,以西部地区的货币供应量对房价的影响为例,其滞后一期的货币供应量发生1个单位的正向变动,房价发生0.85个单位的正向变动;再次,对房地产行业关联度和发展态势建立了投入产出模型和固定效应的变系数面板数据模型,研究发现房地产行业与金融业、租赁和商务服务业、建筑业存在显著关联度,且根据固定效应的变系数面板数据模型结果,可具体分析房地产行业增加值的提高对其他行业的影响程度;最后,基于熵值法建立综合评价模型对天津市房地产行业的可持续发展性进行了研究和深入探讨.     

钻井布局的数学模型

本文对钻井布局问题的研究 ,是从全局搜索入手 ,逐步深入讨论了各种算法的有效性、适用性和复杂性 ,得到不同条件下求最多可利用旧井数的较好算法 .对问题 1 ,我们给出了全局搜索模型、局部精化模型与图论模型 ,讨论了各种算法的可行性和复杂度 .得到的答案为 :最多可使用 4口旧井 ,井号为 2 ,4 ,5,1 0 .对问题 2 ,我们给出了全局搜索、局部精化和旋转矢量等模型 ,并对局部精化模型给出了理论证明 ,答案为 :最多可使用 6口旧井 ,井号为 1 ,6,7,8,9,1 1 ,此时的网格逆时针旋转 4 4.37度 ,网格原点坐标为 (0 .4 7,0 .62 ) .对问题 3,给出判断 n口井是否均可利用的几个充分条件、必要条件和充要条件及其有效算法     

对使用主成分进行绩效指标值排名的讨论

对《基于数据的Goodgrant基金最优投资策略》一文使用主成分分析进行综合评价,对候选学校绩效指标值排名进行了探讨。首先,综合前人研究与本题实际,指出使用主成分分析进行综合评价存在的争议与不足;然后,分别建立TOPSIS模型和综合评价模型对候选学校的绩效指标值进行排名,并对不同方法得到的结果进行对比。结果表明,TOPSIS模型和综合评价模型得到的排名具有高度一致性,前50名重合率达98%,而与主成分分析综合评价的重合率仅有6%,说明使用TOPSIS等传统评价模型对候选学校绩效指标值进行排名更合适。     

含右删失数据的ZIP模型及其应用

零膨胀Poisson回归(ZIP)是处理零频数过多计数资料的有效模型,而计数数据一般含有删失或不精密的特点.本文将删失数据引入到ZIP模型中来,分别建立含右删失数据的固定效应ZIP模型,随机效应ZIP模型,通过极大边际似然函数估计法对模型进行参数估计.最后,利用实例分析验证了上述模型的可行性.     

A Hybrid Logistic Model for Case-Control Studies

For logistic regression in case-control studies, when risk factors associated with the outcome are exceedingly rare in the control group, the estimation of parameters in the model becomes difficult. In this paper, we propose a two-stage hybrid method to achieve this. In the first stage, we model the risk due to the rare factor, and in the second stage we model the residual risk due to the other factors using standard logistic model.     

一类保费批量到达的双险种风险模型

本文研究了一类保费与索赔均为批量到达的双险种破产模型,在特定的分布下导出了调节系数方程,得到了初始资本为u的破产概率的上界并与非批量到达的模型的破产上界进行了比较。     

Some existence-uniqueness results for a class of one-dimensional nonlinear Biot models

The wave propagation in a poro-elastic medium is generally described by a Biot model. This model couples the displacement in the solid structure with the fluid pressure and the most complete system involves coupled equations which are mixed hyperbolic–parabolic. In this paper, we are interested in including nonlinearities in the displacement equation. We restrict our study to the one-dimensional case and we establish existence and uniqueness results in Sobolev spaces using Galerkin approximants. The quasi-static case is also investigated. The hyperbolic character is then suppressed and we get the well-posedness of the system with data less regular than the complete model. But, we also prove that the complete model may be considered as an approximation of the quasi-static model.     

DNA序列分类的数学模型

本文从三个不同的角度分别论述了如何对 DNA序列进行分类的问题 ,依据这三个角度分别建立了三类模型 .首先 ,从生物学背景和几何对称观点出发 ,建立了 DNA序列的三维空间曲线的表达形式 .建立了初步数学模型 -积分模型 ,并且通过模型函数计算得到了 1到 2 0号 DNA序列的分类结果 ,发现与题目所给分类结果相同 ,然后我们又对后 2 0个 DNA序列进行了分类 .然后 ,从人工神经网络的角度出发 ,得到了第二类数学模型 -人工神经网络模型 .并且选择了三种适用于模式分类的基本网络 ,即感知机模型 ,多层感知机 ( BP网络 )模型以及 LVQ矢量量化学习器 ,同时就本问题提出了对 BP网络的改进 (改进型多层感知机 ) ,最后采用多种训练方案 ,均得到了较理想的分类结果 .同时也发现了通过人工神经网络的方法得到的分类结果与积分模型得到的分类结果是相同的 (前四十个 ) .最后 ,我们对碱基赋予几何意义 :A.C.G.T分别表示右 .下 .左 .上 .用 DNA序列控制平面上点的移动 ,每个序列得到一个游动曲线 ,提取游动方向趋势作为特征 ,建立起了模型函数 ,同时也得到了后二十个 DNA序列的分类结果 ,而且发现结果与上述两个模型所得到的分类结果几乎相同 (其中有一个不同 ,在本模型中表示为不可分的 ) .此模型保留的信息量更多 ,而且     

光的波粒二象性探索

光具有波粒二象性,但很难从光的某一特定现象中同时看到这两种性质.如果能用粒子性解释波动性,光的两种性质就能得到完美的统一.分别对龚祖同光子模型、前进电磁场光子模型进行数学建模和MATLAB仿真,并与已有的实验结果比较.发现两个模型都存在不足,进而提出改进的光子模型,从粒子的角度,对展现光的波动性质的干涉、衍射以及偏振现象进行解释.