Credit risk optimization using factor models

We study portfolio credit risk management using factor models, with a focus on optimal portfolio selection based on the tradeoff of expected return and credit risk. We begin with a discussion of factor models and their known analytic properties, paying particular attention to the asymptotic limit of a large, finely grained portfolio. We recall prior results on the convergence of risk measures in this “large portfolio approximation” which are important for credit risk optimization. We then show how the results on the large portfolio approximation can be used to reduce significantly the computational effort required for credit risk optimization. For example, when determining the fraction of capital to be assigned to particular ratings classes, it is sufficient to solve the optimization problem for the large portfolio approximation, rather than for the actual portfolio. This dramatically reduces the dimensionality of the problem, and the amount of computation required for its solution. Numerical results illustrating the application of this principle are also presented. JEL Classification G11     

Particle swarm optimization approach to portfolio optimization

The survey of the relevant literature showed that there have been many studies for portfolio optimization problem and that the number of studies which have investigated the optimum portfolio using heuristic techniques is quite high. But almost none of these studies deals with particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach. This study presents a heuristic approach to portfolio optimization problem using PSO technique. The test data set is the weekly prices from March 1992 to September 1997 from the following indices: Hang Seng in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany, FTSE 100 in UK, S&P 100 in USA and Nikkei in Japan. This study uses the cardinality constrained mean-variance model. Thus, the portfolio optimization model is a mixed quadratic and integer programming problem for which efficient algorithms do not exist. The results of this study are compared with those of the genetic algorithms, simulated annealing and tabu search approaches. The purpose of this paper is to apply PSO technique to the portfolio optimization problem. The results show that particle swarm optimization approach is successful in portfolio optimization.     

Integrated portfolio management with options

In this paper we examine the problem of managing portfolios consisting of both, stocks and options. For the simultaneous optimization of stock and option positions we base our analysis on the generally accepted mean–variance framework. First, we analyze the effects of options on the mean–variance efficient frontier if they are considered as separate investment alternatives. Due to the resulting asymmetric portfolio return distribution mean–variance analysis will be not sufficient to identify optimal optioned portfolios. Additional investor preferences which are expressed in terms of shortfall constraints allow a more detailed portfolio specification. Under a mean–variance and shortfall preference structure we then derive optioned portfolios with a maximum expected return. To circumvent the technical optimization problems arising from stochastic constraints we use an approximation of the return distribution and develop economically meaningful conditions under which the complex optimization problem can be transformed into a linear problem being comparably easy to solve. Empirical results based on both, empirical market data and Monte Carlo simulations, illustrate the portfolio optimization procedure with options.     

Genetic algorithms for portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots

Conventionally, portfolio selection problems are solved with quadratic or linear programming models. However, the solutions obtained by these methods are in real numbers and difficult to implement because each asset usually has its minimum transaction lot. Methods considering minimum transaction lots were developed based on some linear portfolio optimization models. However, no study has ever investigated the minimum transaction lot problem in portfolio optimization based on Markowitz’ model, which is probably the most well-known and widely used. Based on Markowitz’ model, this study presents three possible models for portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots, and devises corresponding genetic algorithms to obtain the solutions. The results of the empirical study show that the portfolios obtained using the proposed algorithms are very close to the efficient frontier, indicating that the proposed method can obtain near optimal and also practically feasible solutions to the portfolio selection problem in an acceptable short time. One model that is based on a fuzzy multi-objective decision-making approach is highly recommended because of its adaptability and simplicity.     

Data-Recursive Smoother Formulae for Partially Observed Discrete-Time Markov Chains

Abstract

We address a dynamic portfolio optimization problem where the expected utility from terminal wealth has to be maximized. The special feature of this paper is an additional constraint on the portfolio strategy modeling bounded shortfall risks, which are measured by value at risk or expected loss. Using a continuous-time model of a complete financial market and applying martingale methods, analytic expressions for the optimal terminal wealth and the optimal portfolio strategies are given. Finally, some numerical results are presented.     

Minimal concave cost rebalance of a portfolio to the efficient frontier

One usually constructs a portfolio on the efficient frontier, but it may not be efficient after, say three months since the efficient frontier will shift as the elapse of time. We then have to rebalance the portfolio if the deviation is no longer acceptable. The method to be proposed in this paper is to find a portfolio on the new efficient frontier such that the total transaction cost required for this rebalancing is minimal. This problem results in a nonconvex minimization problem, if we use mean-variance model. In this paper we will formulate this problem by using absolute deviation as the measure of risk and solve the resulting linearly constrained concave minimization problem by a branch and bound algorithm successfully applied to portfolio optimization problem under concave transaction costs. It will be demonstrated that this method is efficient and that it leads to a significant reduction of transaction costs. Key words.portfolio optimization – rebalance – mean-absolute deviation model – concave cost minimization – optimization over the efficient set – global optimizationMathematics Subject Classification (1991):20E28, 20G40, 20C20     

VaR optimal portfolio with transaction costs

We consider the problem of portfolio optimization under VaR risk measure taking into account transaction costs. Fixed costs as well as impact costs as a nonlinear function of trading activity are incorporated in the optimal portfolio model. Thus the obtained model is a nonlinear optimization problem with nonsmooth objective function. The model is solved by an iterative method based on a smoothing VaR technique. We prove the convergence of the considered iterative procedure and demonstrate the nontrivial influence of transaction costs on the optimal portfolio weights.     

A review of credibilistic portfolio selection

This paper reviews the credibilistic portfolio selection approaches which deal with fuzzy portfolio selection problem based on credibility measure. The reason for choosing credibility measure is given. Several mathematical definitions of risk of an investment in the portfolio are introduced. Some credibilistic portfolio selection models are presented, including mean-risk model, mean-variance model, mean-semivariance model, credibility maximization model, α-return maximization model, entropy optimization model and game models. A hybrid intelligent algorithm for solving the optimization models is documented. In addition, as extensions of credibilistic portfolio selection approaches, the paper also gives a brief review of some hybrid portfolio selection models.     

Portfolio optimization when asset returns have the Gaussian mixture distribution

In this paper we consider a portfolio optimization problem where the underlying asset returns are distributed as a mixture of two multivariate Gaussians; these two Gaussians may be associated with “distressed” and “tranquil” market regimes. In this context, the Sharpe ratio needs to be replaced by other non-linear objective functions which, in the case of many underlying assets, lead to optimization problems which cannot be easily solved with standard techniques. We obtain a geometric characterization of efficient portfolios, which reduces the complexity of the portfolio optimization problem.     

基于引力搜索和粒子群混合优化算法的证券投资组合问题研究

本文研究考虑交易成本的投资组合模型,分别以风险价值(VAR)和夏普比率(SR)作为投资组合的风险评价指标和效益评价指标。为有效求解此模型,本文在引力搜索和粒子群算法的基础上提出了一种混合优化算法(IN-GSA-PSO),将粒子群算法的群体最佳位置和个体最佳位置与引力搜索算法的加速度算子有机结合,使混合优化算法充分发挥单一算法的开采能力和探索能力。通过对算法相关参数的合理设置,算法能够达到全局搜索和局部搜索的平衡,快速收敛到模型的最优解。本文选取上证50股2014年下半年126个交易日的数据,运用Matlab软件进行仿真实验,实验结果显示,考虑交易成本的投资组合模型可使投资者得到更高的收益率。研究同时表明,基于PSO和GSA的混合算法在求解投资组合模型时比单一算法具有更好的性能,能够得到满意的优化结果。     

Numerical methods for stochastic programs with second order dominance constraints with applications to portfolio optimization

Inspired by the successful applications of the stochastic optimization with second order stochastic dominance (SSD) model in portfolio optimization, we study new numerical methods for a general SSD model where the underlying functions are not necessarily linear. Specifically, we penalize the SSD constraints to the objective under Slater’s constraint qualification and then apply the well known stochastic approximation (SA) method and the level function method to solve the penalized problem. Both methods are iterative: the former requires to calculate an approximate subgradient of the objective function of the penalized problem at each iterate while the latter requires to calculate a subgradient. Under some moderate conditions, we show that w.p.1 the sequence of approximated solutions generated by the SA method converges to an optimal solution of the true problem. As for the level function method, the convergence is deterministic and in some cases we are able to estimate the number of iterations for a given precision. Both methods are applied to portfolio optimization problem where the return functions are not necessarily linear and some numerical test results are reported.     

Multiobjective evolutionary algorithms for complex portfolio optimization problems

This paper investigates the ability of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs), namely the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), Pareto Envelope-based Selection Algorithm (PESA) and Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2), for solving complex portfolio optimization problems. The portfolio optimization problem is a typical bi-objective optimization problem with objectives the reward that should be maximized and the risk that should be minimized. While reward is commonly measured by the portfolio’s expected return, various risk measures have been proposed that try to better reflect a portfolio’s riskiness or to simplify the problem to be solved with exact optimization techniques efficiently. However, some risk measures generate additional complexities, since they are non-convex, non-differentiable functions. In addition, constraints imposed by the practitioners introduce further difficulties since they transform the search space into a non-convex region. The results show that MOEAs, in general, are efficient and reliable strategies for this kind of problems, and their performance is independent of the risk function used.     

Translation-invariant and positive-homogeneous risk measures and optimal portfolio management in the presence of a riskless component

Risk portfolio optimization, with translation-invariant and positive-homogeneous risk measures, leads to the problem of minimizing a combination of a linear functional and a square root of a quadratic functional for the case of elliptical multivariate underlying distributions.This problem was recently treated by the authors for the case when the portfolio does not contain a riskless component. When it does, however, the initial covariance matrix Σ becomes singular and the problem becomes more complicated. In the paper we focus on this case and provide an explicit closed-form solution of the minimization problem, and the condition under which this solution exists. The results are illustrated using data of 10 stocks from the NASDAQ Computer Index.     

Conditional value-at-risk in portfolio optimization: Coherent but fragile

We evaluate conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as a risk measure in data-driven portfolio optimization. We show that portfolios obtained by solving mean-CVaR and global minimum CVaR problems are unreliable due to estimation errors of CVaR and/or the mean, which are magnified by optimization. This problem is exacerbated when the tail of the return distribution is made heavier. We conclude that CVaR, a coherent risk measure, is fragile in portfolio optimization due to estimation errors.     

求解log—最优组合投资问题的一个自适应算法及其理论分析

本文给出了一个求解log－最优组合投资问题的自适应算法,它是一个变型的随机逼近方法。该问题是一个约束优化问题,因此,采用基于约束流形的梯度上升方向替代常规梯度上升方向,在一些合理的假设下证明了算法的收敛性并进行了渐近稳定性分析。最后,本文将该算法应用于上海证券交易所提供的实际数据的log-最优组合投资问题求解,获得了理想的数值模拟结果。     

Portfolio Optimization in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market

We address a portfolio optimization problem in a semi-Markov modulated market. We study both the terminal expected utility optimization on finite time horizon and the risk-sensitive portfolio optimization on finite and infinite time horizon. We obtain optimal portfolios in relevant cases. A numerical procedure is also developed to compute the optimal expected terminal utility for finite horizon problem. This work was supported in part by a DST project: SR/S4/MS: 379/06; also supported in part by a grant from UGC via DSA-SAP Phase IV, and in part by a CSIR Fellowship.     

Robust portfolio selection based on a multi-stage scenario tree

The aim of this paper is to apply the concept of robust optimization introduced by Bel-Tal and Nemirovski to the portfolio selection problems based on multi-stage scenario trees. The objective of our portfolio selection is to maximize an expected utility function value (or equivalently, to minimize an expected disutility function value) as in a classical stochastic programming problem, except that we allow for ambiguities to exist in the probability distributions along the scenario tree. We show that such a problem can be formulated as a finite convex program in the conic form, on which general convex optimization techniques can be applied. In particular, if there is no short-selling, and the disutility function takes the form of semi-variance downside risk, and all the parameter ambiguity sets are ellipsoidal, then the problem becomes a second order cone program, thus tractable. We use SeDuMi to solve the resulting robust portfolio selection problem, and the simulation results show that the robust consideration helps to reduce the variability of the optimal values caused by the parameter ambiguity.     

考虑决策者心理行为的证券投资组合决策方法研究

在现实的证券投资组合决策中,决策者的心理行为是不可忽视的重要因素。本文针对考虑决策者心理行为的证券投资组合问题,给出了一种基于累积前景理论和心理账户的决策分析方法。首先,依据累积前景理论,将决策者对不同市场状态下的预期收益率作为参考点,计算各备选证券收益率相对于参照点的收益和损失,并计算不同市场状态下针对所有备选证券的综合前景价值;然后,依据决策者的心理账户,即以证券投资组合的收益总体综合前景价值最大为目标、以投资期末总财富阈值以及满足财富约束的概率不小于决策者设定的概率阈值为约束,构建了具有概率约束条件的证券投资组合优化模型,通过将概率约束转化为线性约束并求解优化模型,可得到最优的证券投资组合方案。最后,通过一个算例对本文提出方法的可行性和有效性进行了验证。研究结果表明,本文提出的方法能够较好地解决考虑决策者心理行为的证券投资组合问题。     

Multiobjective optimization using differential evolution for real-world portfolio optimization

Portfolio optimization is an important aspect of decision-support in investment management. Realistic portfolio optimization, in contrast to simplistic mean-variance optimization, is a challenging problem, because it requires to determine a set of optimal solutions with respect to multiple objectives, where the objective functions are often multimodal and non-smooth. Moreover, the objectives are subject to various constraints of which many are typically non-linear and discontinuous. Conventional optimization methods, such as quadratic programming, cannot cope with these realistic problem properties. A valuable alternative are stochastic search heuristics, such as simulated annealing or evolutionary algorithms. We propose a new multiobjective evolutionary algorithm for portfolio optimization, which we call DEMPO??Differential Evolution for Multiobjective Portfolio Optimization. In our experimentation, we compare DEMPO with quadratic programming and another well-known evolutionary algorithm for multiobjective optimization called NSGA-II. The main advantage of DEMPO is its ability to tackle a portfolio optimization task without simplifications, while obtaining very satisfying results in reasonable runtime.