Understanding the impacts of product knowledge and product type on the accuracy of intentions-based new product predictions

New product development involves several critical decisions. A key decision making area in new product development is the evaluation of the viability and the market potentials of a new product. In the absence of any relevant historical data, companies ask the potential buyers of their products about their intentions to buy those products when assessing their viability. Despite the popularity of the use of behavioral intentions in predicting the market acceptance of new product ideas, both survey and empirical studies suggest that the accuracy of such predictions is usually very low. Although earlier case-based studies suggest that a number of factors can affect the quality of new product decisions, it is still empirically unclear how product knowledge and the type of new products might impact the predictive accuracy of intentions-based new product forecasting. This study utilized a longitudinal research design and empirically tested the hypotheses across two new products. The study first collected purchase intentions data about the new products. Second, it collected subsequent actual purchase data about the new products. The results of series of hierarchical regression analyses comparing the initial purchase intentions and subsequent actual behaviors showed that while product knowledge is positively related to the predictive accuracy and consistency of intentions-based new product forecasting, product type is negatively related to them.     

Application of fuzzy soft set in decision making problems based on grey theory

There are many uncertain problems in practical production and life which need decisions made with soft sets and fuzzy soft sets. However, the basis of evaluation of the decision method is single and simple, the same decision problem can obtain different results from using a different evaluation basis. In this paper, in order to obtain the right result, we discuss fuzzy soft set decision problems. A new algorithm based on grey relational analysis is presented. The evaluation bases of the new algorithm are multiple. There is more information in a decision result based on multiple evaluation bases, which is more easily accepted and logical to one’s thinking. For the two cases examined, the results show that the new algorithm is efficient for solving decision problems.     

微信社群互动行为对用户理财产品投资组合风险决策的影响

微信社群如何影响用户理财产品购买决策是当下金融产品营销的一个重要理论问题。本研究依据效价理论提出感知风险、感知收益与用户理财产品的投资组合风险决策的关系模型,并将用户的微信社群互动纳入模型。基于287个用户问卷数据,129个微信社群的互动行为数据,以及用户理财产品实际购买行为的数据分析,发现用户购买理财产品的投资组合风险决策受到其感知风险与感知收益的影响,而且微信社群的互动频率负向影响用户感知风险与用户投资组合风险决策之间的负向关系、微信社群的消极情绪会加强感知风险对用户投资组合风险决策的负向影响并削弱感知利益对于用户投资组合风险决策的正向影响。本研究扩展了有关用户理财产品决策影响因素的分析视角,并对理财产品的用户管理有借鉴价值。     

Improving long-run industrial decision making

The paper describes the present status of new product evaluation and decision making in large and small companies. It discusses the need to draw from a wide range of sources for societal as well as financial and technical information. While deficiencies and the need for improved analytical capabilities are identified, the emphasis is on what can be done, and near term problems using as an example the decision to produce a new type of vehicle engine.     

Towards logistics systems parameter optimisation through the use of response surfaces

Logistics systems have to cope with uncertainties in demand, in lead times, in transport times, in availability of resources and in quality. Management decisions have to take these uncertainties into consideration. An evaluation of decisions may be done by means of simulation. However, not all stochastic phenomena are of equal importance. By design of simulation experiments and making use of response surfaces, the most important phenomena are detected and their influence on performance estimated. Once the influence of the phenomena is known, this knowledge may be used to determine the optimal values of some decision parameters. An illustration is given on how to use response surfaces in a real-world case. A model is built in a logistics modelling software. The decision parameters have to be optimised for a specific objective function. Experiments are run to estimate the response surface. The validity of the response surface with few observations is also tested.     

一种使用在线评论信息的商品购买决策分析方法

在线评论信息对消费者的商品购买决策影响非常显著,如何使用数据体量较大的在线评论信息来进行有针对性的商品购买决策分析是近年来尤为需要关注的一个新研究内容。本文提出一种使用在线评论信息的商品购买决策分析方法。首先,通过在线评论信息的挖掘来确定了消费者所重点关注的关于候选商品的商品特征及其权重;然后,通过消费者情感的分析来构建了关于各候选商品的商品购买决策矩阵;在此基础上,通过给出的一种基于随机TOPSIS的方案排序方法来进行了各候选商品的排序。最后,依据携程网提供的关于三家客栈的在线评论信息进行了数据实验,从而说明了本文提出方法的实用性与可行性。     

Financial modelling: Where to go? With an illustration for portfolio management

The definition of Financial Modelling chosen by the EURO working group on financial modelling is ‘the development and implementation of tools supporting firms, investors, intermediaries, governments and others in their financial-economic decision making, including the validation of the premises behind these tools and the measurement of the effectivity of the use of these tools’. Clearly, in this definition, the decision and its solution is central. Unlike financial modelling in our definition, the theory of finance is not so much concerned with individual decisions, but rather with the effects of the decisions and actions of many individuals on the formation of prices in financial markets. It is therefore no wonder that the assumptions underlying financial theory, which at best describe ‘average individuals’ and ‘average decision situations’, are not suited to describe specific individual decision problems. In our view it is the role of financial modelling to support individual decision making, taking account of the peculiarities of the actual case, where possible taking benefit from the results of the financial theory. This philosophy towards financial modelling is illustrated by a framework for portfolio management.     

A fuzzy attractiveness of market entry (FAME) model for market selection decisions

A Fuzzy Attractiveness of Market Entry (FAME) model is developed to address the decision-making problem of product introduction into alternative markets. FAME is a market entry selection model that is specifically designed to handle situations when information is limited and/or ambiguous, and a high level of uncertainty exists. As such, the FAME model is an easy to implement tool that supports a reasoning approach to market selection decisions. The model uses expert opinions regarding four factors: (1) fit of the firm's marketing mix in each market; (2) the fit of its key competitor's marketing mix in each market; (3) environmental conditions in each market; and (4) the strategic importance of each market to the firm. Application of the model algorithm is conducted for a small, Bulgarian winery's market selection decision. Ease of use is relevant for small to mid-size companies since a spreadsheet is sufficient to complete the algorithmic calculations.     

Operationalizing technology improvements in product development decision-making

Achieving competitive advantage and price premiums in many technology-based markets requires the incorporation of current technology in new products. To do so, firms in hyper-competitive environments increasingly plan and design their products concurrent with the independent development and validation of underlying technologies. Simultaneous validation of a core technology has important implications for a company’s product positioning and launch sequence decisions making these traditional marketing decisions relevant to operations managers. Prior research has shown that to minimize cannibalization in the absence of such improvements in technology, a firm should not launch low-end products before high-end products. However, concurrent evolution of technology can make it desirable and even necessary to introduce low-end products before high-end products. This is because in technology-based industries, improvements in technology delay the introduction of a high-end product, and a firm must trade-off the benefit of launching the low-end product earlier (greater discounted profits) against the cost of cannibalization of high-end product sales. High-end product cannibalization can be further reduced by offering the customer an option to upgrade from the low-end to high-end product, with important implications for the firm’s product positioning and introduction sequence decisions. Based on our study in the high technology industry, we model the product positioning and introduction sequence decisions under the simultaneous evolution of technology. Our analysis indicates that it may be optimal in a variety of circumstances for a firm to launch products in an increasing order of performance, even in the absence of network externalities. Besides presenting analytical results for product positioning and profit from different introduction sequences, the paper also makes a contribution to managerial practice by providing insights in the form of a conceptual framework.     

基于改进的粗糙集条件信息熵和灰关联投影法的工程项目投标决策研究

投标决策是建筑企业面临的一大难题.在分析建设工程投标风险因素的基础上,提出一种基于改进的粗糙集条件信息熵和灰关联投影法的投标决策方法.文中投标风险因素的客观权重经两次修正,更具全面性和合理性;然后结合依靠专家经验确定的主观权重得到综合权重;最后将综合权重应用于灰关联投影法进行投标决策.通过应用实例,验证决策方法的可操作性和合理性,为承包商实际的投标工作提供一定的借鉴和参考.     

A fuzzy logic-based decision model to satisfy goals for successful product/service introduction

The Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence is applied to a multiattribute decision-making problem where the decision maker must determine which of several products/services have the best opportunity for success in a competitive marketplace. Multiattribute decisions are generally constrained by the uncertainty inherent in assessing the relative importance of each attribute element that is needed for success and the evaluation of the product/service to be introduced. The relative importance of each attribute element deemed necessary for success is assessed by the decision maker as a goal to be met. The evaluation of each product/service is addressed through expert opinion about the degree to which each element is contained in each product/service. Then the belief and plausibility that a product/service will satisfy the decision maker's goal are calculated. The decision to introduce a product or service depends on the evaluation of the anticipated loss from introduction of a product/service into a competitive market.     

基于二元语义TAC积分算子的语言型多属性群决策方法

针对属性之间存在模糊关联的语言型多属性群决策问题,给出了二元语义TAC(Two-Additive Choquet)积分算子的定义,分析和证明了算子的有关性质,并提出了相应的决策方法。该方法首先将各专家提供的语言短语形式的属性权重信息、属性关联信息与属性评价信息转化为二元语义形式,然后利用二元语义TAC积分算子将转化后的属性相关信息集结为各专家的方案评价值,并进一步集结专家意见获得方案的综合评价值,从而确定其排序。最后,通过实例分析和方法比较说明了所给方法的有效性和优点。研究结果表明,该方法具有属性关联刻画细致、计算过程简单且无信息损失、决策结果可解释性强等优点,为求解属性之间存在模糊关联的语言型多属性群决策问题提供了一种新的途径。     

基于博弈论的节能量保证型EPC合同决策分析

合同能源管理(EPC)是一种以未来节约的能源费用支付节能项目成本的节能管理机制。节能量保证型EPC模式中,耗能企业负责为项目融资,节能服务公司提供项目的全程服务并向客户企业保证一定的节能效益。若达不到承诺值,节能服务公司向客户进行补偿,若超出承诺值,客户给予节能服务公司一定的奖励。合同决策问题是该模式应用中的重要问题。本文以节能量保证型EPC合同中初始项目投资、合同期限和超额节能效益奖励的决策问题为研究对象,建立了客户和节能服务公司之间的决策博弈模型,分析二者的最优合同决策。数值试验结果表明,该方法不仅能让客户企业和节能服务公司均受益,还可以有效提高项目的投资报酬率,并且较高的节能服务公司技术水平和客户初始耗能水平能产生更高的节能效率。     

Optimal product design using a colony of virtual ants

The optimal product design problem, where the “best” mix of product features are formulated into an ideal offering, is formulated using ant colony optimization (ACO). Here, algorithms based on the behavior of social insects are applied to a consumer decision model designed to guide new product decisions and to allow planning and evaluation of product offering scenarios.     

Evaluating performance of Iranian cement firms using an integrated fuzzy AHP–VIKOR method

In today’s competitive environment, a firm’s performance evaluation and its comparison with other companies is an important issue for investors, creditors and companies in order to reach their investment goals. They can also develop their place to increase their revenue. The aim of this study is presenting a model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and VIKOR (Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje) method. This combined method (fuzzy AHP–VIKOR) in the firm’s performance evaluation is presented by financial ratios. In this research, the proposed method is utilized in evaluating the performance of 27 Iranian cement firms in the Tehran stock exchange market for 2 years (2008 and 2009), separately. The FAHP method is used to determine weights of criteria taking the subjective judgments of decision makers. VIKOR method is then applied for ranking the firms.     

店中店还是转卖？促销努力下制造商入侵策略选择

本文在双寡头市场环境下,利用Hotelling模型,研究了新进入制造商的最优入侵模式以及产品促销的决策。其中在位者以店中店模式存在于市场中,入侵者首先决定以传统的转卖模式还是以店中店模式进入市场,其次还需要决定是否进行产品促销。研究结果表明,不同的入侵模式影响新进入者的促销策略。店中店模式中零售商要求的收益共享比例是影响入侵者模式选择的主要因素。当该比例较低时,入侵者倾向于店中店模式。最后,利用数值实验,分析了收益共享比例和产品差异化程度对供应链成员利润的影响。     

Requisite Decision Modelling: A Case Study

This case study in decision analysis concerns a company that had to decide between continuing to manufacture an old product that might in the near future by banned by the government or introducing an improved but conventional product that would beat the ban but might lose market share to competing products using microchip technology. A decision tree with three attributes describing the consequences over a ten-year horizon modelled the problem. Implementation on a micro computer facilitated extensive sensitivity analyses, the final round of which were conducted by the Board of Directors. More and more pessimistic assumptions were made until the decision switched from the new to the old product; at that point no Director believed all the assumptions. Thus, agreement was reached about the decision even though the Directors disagreed about the uncertainties. The case illustrates ‘requisite’ rather than optimal decision modelling and shows the essential roles of problem structure and sensitivity analysis.     

Dynamic Plots in Virtual Negotiations

Advanced information and communications technology provides the basis for continuous monitoring of, and rapid data exchange about, crucial operations. Of special interest are those conflict situations where organizations continuously readjust mutually affecting decisions, considering the competitors' choices, but without communicating verbally. An example refers to trucking companies who base their decisions, which trucks to assign to different routes, on the competitors' assignments. To support the decision process for these types of virtual negotiation settings, a new dynamic plot approach is proposed. Dynamic plots can be used to visualize the decision topology of all parties and the impact of making a decision on all parties. Of special interest in this paper are dynamic plots with an individual stability equilibrium, where competitors do not revise their decisions unless a change in the market occurs. Dynamic plots for 2 × 2 conflict situations are discussed first, followed by a discussion of 3 × 3 conflict situations. The paper closes with a discussion of a computer implementation and empirical evidence of virtual negotiations with dynamic plots. The results of these virtual negotiations suggest that dynamic plots stimulate virtual negotiations and support efficiency, equity, and system optimum for these types of real-time negotiations.     

Decision analysis models in reinsurance

Decision analysis models are developed and illustrated for the reinsurance (risk transfer) decisions made by insurance companies. Decision analytic models were found to be useful tools both for structuring multistage reinsurance decisions and for comparing alternative options. The insurer is faced with many possible choices involving reinsurance type and extent, and an expected utility model provided insight both as a screening device and as an evaluation criterion. Decision analytic models appeared to be superior to other approaches such as mean/variance and risk of ruin models both because of their flexibility and their more comprehensive treatment the important elements of the decision, namely the complete claims distribution, the cost of reinsurance and the insurer's risk attitude.     

Selecting most efficient information system projects in presence of user subjective opinions: a DEA approach

Information System (IS) project selection is a critical decision making task that can significantly impact operational excellence and competitive advantage of modern enterprises and also can involve them in a long-term commitment. This decision making is complicated due to availability of numerous IS projects, their increasing complexities, importance of timely decisions in a dynamic environment, as well as existence of multiple qualitative and quantitative criteria. This paper proposes a Data Envelopment Analysis approach to find most efficient IS projects while considering subjective opinions and intuitive senses of decision makers. The proposed approach is validated by a real world case study involving 41 IS projects at a large financial institution as well as 18 artificial projects which are defined by the decision makers.